Polls: Obama And McCain Gaining And Obama Pulls Ahead In California

Two new polls show Democratic Senator Barack Obama’s support is growing on the eve of the Super Tuesday Presidential nomination primaries — one shows him slightly ahead of Senator Hillary Clinton — and that Republican Senator John McCain continues to make solid gains.

CNN reports:

Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton is losing ground to Sen. Barack Obama in a national CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released on the eve of critical Super Tuesday presidential primaries and caucuses.

The two are virtually tied in Monday’s survey, which shows the New York senator has lost a comfortable national lead she’s held for months over Obama and other rivals.

The survey also shows Arizona Sen. John McCain as the clear Republican front-runner.

Obama, who trounced Clinton in January’s South Carolina primary, garnered 49 percent of registered Democrats in Monday’s poll, while Clinton trailed by just three points, a gap well within the survey’s 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

“Coming out of his overwhelming victory in South Carolina and followed quickly by his Kennedy family endorsements, Obama clearly has the momentum in this campaign,” said Bill Schneider, CNN’s senior political analyst.

Pollster John Zogby finds McCain “on a roll” and Obama-Clinton “neck-and-neck” — with Obama having pulled ahead in the delegate-rich state of California:

The Mac Attack appears ready to launch on Super Tuesday. McCain’s leads are commanding, except for in California where Romney leads in Southern California and among women, investors, and voters over

50. Romney holds a double digit lead there among conservatives and leads 56%-18% among very conservative voters. Romney also leads among white voters and among those who say that the war on terror and immigration are top issues.

“McCain will do well because of his big leads in the other states and because of winner-take-all states. But Romney may at least have a strong showing in California. In Missouri, Huckabee is in second place by virtue of strong support with conservative and (especially) very conservative voters.

“On the Democratic side, California, Missouri and New Jersey are so close. Obama’s lead in California is by virtue of solid support in the Bay Area and among Independents (by 20 points), men (20 points), 18-29 year olds (31 points), very liberal voters (22 points), and African Americans (75%-14%). Clinton does well among women (11 points) and among Hispanics (64%-29%).

Zogby has Obama ahead of Clinton in California 45 percent to 41 percent.

The wild card: many California ballots were mailed in early. Clinton had been ahead in California until this weekend. Will those ballots reflect that change or will they favor Clinton?

What does all this mean?

Polls have been notoriously wrong this political season but, if they are correct, it would mean:

(1) The Democratic contest will shift to who can get the most Super Delegates, an area of competition that many believe heavily favors Clinton. But the Democratic contest could go on for a while, all the way to the convention, unless Obama or Clinton throws a knock-out punch Tuesday, which seems unlikely.

(2) McCain will likely come out of the Super Tuesday the GOP nominee, although former Governor Mike Huckabee’s resolve and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s personal bankroll could make it go on in a pro-forma matter. Many GOPers will rush to back McCain. Hard-line conservatives will have to then stick to their rhetoric about not voting for McCain or start edging towards him.