Super Tuesday Polls: Democratic Clinton Obama Horserace And McCain Leads

In what is shaping up as one of the most dramatic moments in American political history, pre-Super Tuesday primary polls show the race between Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination is tightening, while Republican Senator John McCain is apparently poised to solidify his hold as the front-runner for the Republican nomination.

Polls and interpretations vary. Is there an Obama surge? Or has Obama’s momentum stalled? Is Clinton’s hold slipping away? Or is she so far ahead in the states that matter that Obama’s showing will be mere stagecraft? And can hard-core conservatives and talk show hosts deprive McCain of what now seems within his grasp?

The Washington Post shows a nail-biter on the Democratic side and growing GOP consensus that McCain is the one:

Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) are running roughly even nationally as the battle for the Democratic nomination heads into Tuesday’s big round of primaries and caucuses, while Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) has jumped to a dominating lead over his remaining rivals in the Republican race, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Two days before voters in 24 states go to their polling places, 47 percent of likely Democratic voters said they back Clinton and 43 percent said they support Obama, with neither candidate decisively benefiting from the departure of former senator John Edwards (N.C.) from the race. By contrast, McCain’s wins in primaries in South Carolina and Florida and the winnowing of the Republican field have had a dramatic result: The senator from Arizona is now the clear front-runner for his party’s nomination.

McCain leads former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney 48 percent to 24 percent among probable GOP voters as he continues to rapidly consolidate support, particularly among moderates and liberals. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee runs third in the new poll with 16 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) is fourth at 7 percent.

Meanwhile, a poll from California contains bad news for Hillary Clinton in what the San Francisco Chronicle calls a “startling” surge of support for Obama:

A startling surge of support for Barack Obama has catapulted the Illinois senator into a virtual tie with Hillary Rodham Clinton in California’s Democratic presidential primary, a Field Poll released Saturday shows.

Arizona Sen. John McCain lengthened his lead in the state Republican primary, grabbing a 32 to 24 percent edge among likely voters over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was at 13 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 10 percent.

But the Democratic numbers are the shocker. Clinton, a longtime California favorite, saw her once-commanding lead slip to two percentage points, 36 to 34 percent, in the new survey. That’s down from the New York senator’s 12 percentage point lead in mid-January and a 25 percentage point margin over Obama in October.

But with 18 percent of Democratic voters still undecided just days before Tuesday’s primary, the election is still up for grabs, said Mark DiCamillo, the poll’s director.

“It’s an unusually volatile election, with a very high number of undecided voters and so many moving parts,” he said. “It could be a very, very close election.”

Zogby has different results. That poll shows Obama with a bigger lead and Romney ahead. TPM Election Central:

A new Zogby poll in California — a state that may well decide the direction of the Democratic race — shows Barack Obama taking a small lead over Hillary Clinton, within the margin of error. Obama has 45% to Clinton’s 41%, with Obama’s 20-point lead among men making up for Hillary’s 11-point lead with women.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney has taken an apparent edge himself of 37% to John McCain’s 34%, followed by Mike Huckabee with 12%. Although McCain has the support of the state Republican establishment, led by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Romney leads among those who say immigration and the war on terror are their top issues — probably owing to McCain’s support for immigration reform and his opposition to torture.

Taken together these polls suggests (1) after seemingly stalling, Obama’s support could again be increasing…which could be due to the monster media blitz his campaign has been able to do with a huge infusion of campaign contributions, plus his campaign now boasting campaign workers such as Massachusetts Senator Teddy Kennedy and talk show host Oprah Winfrey, (2) an apparent McCain solidification but some suspense since there are no signs that hard-core conservatives will go quietly into the night and accept his nomination. Look for Romney to take it all the way to the convention — unless he absolutely flops on Tuesday.

ADVISORY TO READERS: Polls have been hideously wrong this year. There could be an “upset” Tuesday night from what the polls and poll-reading suggests. Which is why Tuesday’s vote will be all the more dramatic since it’s the closest thing yet to a national primary.

Cartoon by Pat Bagley, Salt Lake Tribune