Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: McCain And Clinton Make Gains

The Big Mo has (for now at least) shifted to Arizona Senator John McCain on the GOP side and New York Senator Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side in the battles for their parties’ respective Presidential nominations, a new Gallup Daily tracking poll shows:

John McCain continues to be the primary beneficiary of Rudy Giuliani’s recent exit from the Republican race for president. The percentage of Republican primary voters nationwide favoring McCain for the nomination rose from 39% in interviews conducted Jan. 29-30, to 44% in Jan. 30-Feb. 1 polling. Neither Mitt Romney nor Mike Huckabee picked up any additional support.

As a result, McCain now holds a 20-percentage point lead over Romney in the Jan. 30-Feb. 1 Gallup Poll Daily tracking results. It is McCain’s largest lead since he assumed the front-runner position following the New Hampshire Republican primary.

And the Democrats?

The gap between Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama remains in the single digits. In the most recent tracking period, Clinton holds a seven-point lead over Obama among Democratic primary voters nationwide, 48% vs. 41%. This is up from three- to four-point leads Clinton had the previous two days, but it is still a much closer race than a week ago when Clinton led Obama by 15 points.

But, a cautionary note, there are variables:

–How much did McCain’s debate performance help him? Some commentators thought it was his worst performance and he further angered conservatives. How will the Super Tuesday results reflect growing consternation and anger among conservatives that McCain could be the nominee (and if he is defeated as nominee, won’t that chase a bunch of voters away from the GOP)?

– How much will Obama’s numbers be impacted by three events:

(1) Former Senator John Edwards pulling out of the race. Will Obama get the Edwards voters?

(2) Obama’s debate performance: some felt it was not his best since he had to strongly challenge Clinton in the debate which got record viewership. And he didn’t in many cases.

(3) Bill Clinton’s expected entry with another big media story right before a vote.

The closeness of the races suggests: the outcome could be determined by some last-minute imagery or news dealing with the race.