The McCain Surge: The Beginning of a New Movement?
Looking at some of the exit polling from the South Carolina and Florida primaries, I’ve noticed that John McCain is winning the few GOP moderates and liberals still left (like me) as well as pro-choicers and the like. It seems that the Senator from Arizona has been able to make the long-forgotten moderate wing of the party a factor in his path to the GOP nomination leaving the conservative wing to either follow or get out of the way.
In Friday’s Washington Post, EJ Dionne spells it out:
If John McCain secures the Republican presidential nomination, his victory would signal a revolution in American politics — a divorce, after a 28-year marriage, between the Republican and conservative establishments.
McCain would be the first Republican nominee since Gerald Ford in 1976 to win despite opposition from organized conservatism, and also the first whose base in Republican primaries rested on the party’s center and its dwindling left. McCain is winning despite conservatives, not because of them.
Dionne continues to talk about that fact that McCain is making the conservative establishment crazy. Many consider him not part of the conservative movement. And in a sense, they are correct. Even though McCain’s voting record is conservative, his conservatism is far different than the type practiced by Rush Limbaugh and Mitt Romney (at least since the latter started running for President). That conservative-movement conservatism has been the type that has been in power in the GOP for nearly three decades. It’s a conservatism that is anti-government and heavy on “family values.”
McCain’s conservatism is one that is more philosophical than it is movement. It’s one that has a healthy suspicion of government, but also sees it as a force for good when used in moderation. It believes in traditions and not traditionalism. It’s the conservatism of Teddy Roosevelt, another Republican that drove conservatives crazy.
Because the conservative movement is fractured, Dionne believes McCain has been able to take the lead. I also think he has been able to create a new coalition where the hard-right doesn’t have the lead position. Moderates have someone that they can vote for with enthusiasm, even if they don’t share all of his views.
What will be interesting is what happens after November. If McCain wins, we could be seeing a new GOP. But even if he loses, I don’t think things in the GOP will be the same. The voters seem to be going against the wishes of the conservative establishment and that genie might be hard to put back in the bottle.
Could we be seeing a new coalition in the GOP? Time will tell.
14 Responses to “The McCain Surge: The Beginning of a New Movement?”
[...] The Moderate Voice – Domestic and international news analysis, irreverent comments, original reporti… wrote an interesting post today on The McCain Surge: The Beginning of a New Movement?Here’s a quick excerptThe McCain Surge: The Beginning of a New Movement? February 1st, 2008 by Dennis Sanders Looking at some of the exit pollings from the South Carolina and Florida primaries, I’ve noticed that John McCain is winning the few GOP moderates and liberals still left (like me) as well as pro-choicers and the like. It seems that the Senator from Arizona has been able to make the long forgotten moderate wing of the party a factor is his path to the GOP nomination leaving the conservative wing to either [...]
[...] The Moderate Voice – Domestic and international news analysis, irreverent comments, original reporti… wrote an interesting post today on The McCain Surge: The Beginning of a New Movement?Here’s a quick excerptThe McCain Surge: The Beginning of a New Movement? February 1st, 2008 by Dennis Sanders Looking at some of the exit pollings from the South Carolina and Florida primaries, I’ve noticed that John McCain is winning the few GOP moderates and liberals still left (like me) as well as pro-choicers and the like. It seems that the Senator from Arizona has been able to make the long forgotten moderate wing of the party a factor is his path to the GOP nomination leaving the conservative wing to eith [...]
McCain has demonstrated no ability to lead anything or anybody. His ability to win in November is limited. My guess is that he will lose in a rout after a poor campaign and extremely poor performance in the presidential debates.
His loss will be use by conservative as proof that they were correct all along.
There is no demographic groups or interest groups to create a new Republican coalition. If people want more government, the Democratic Party is the natural alterantive. If McCain is willing to give the Democratic Party whatever it wants, he creates no real reason to vote for him.
I think the main thing to see in the Republican Primary is that the slate of candiates are extrenely poor and all are extremely flawed. McCain is just the least flawed of the pathetic.
If Arnold is California is an example, the Reublicans were lucky to still be relevant in four years.
He has led in the Senate, and has created bipartisan consensus for causes that were important to him. He hasn't always fought for conservative causes, which is why they are now coming out against him in the primaries.Conservatives consider him even more untrustworthy than Mitt, and seek to punish him for taking independent stands on the environment, campaign finance, tax cuts and immigration. In doing so, they will hand Democrats, whose differences are less divisive, the victory in '08. Should this happen, look for the conservatives to be marginalized and forced to regroup.
Kritt,
Getting every Democratic Senator and a couple of republican to support something can be called many thing but Bipartisan is not one of them. There is nothing in McCain's leadership that demonstrate any ability to develop consensus on a subject. McCain has never accomplished anything supported by the Republicans where McCain managed to convince a few Democrats to support it. His only strategy to accomplish what helps his ego is to sell out the Repulbicans,.
McCain, instead of leading, seems to do nothing more than follow the Democrats in what they want. to do. The immigration bill is the perfect example of his inability to lead and in being led by the Democrats into a foolish position.
One of the ironies of the 2008 election is that McCain will probably lose in a rout that will be partially caused by McCain-Feingold and the massive disadvantages it creates for Republicans.
SD – Could this be a return to the moderate Republicans of Nixon/Ford/Rockefeller/Eisenhower? What would happen if ANY Republican repeated the military-industrial-complex speech of 1961?
This speech would be considered TREASONOUS( by todays standard) at WeaklyStandard, NRO or Sean Hannity.
No. And plenty of us who know and are better do NOT want business as usual in Washington, but a massive reform and down-sizing there. (The kind of thing that makes people who look at Washington as their parent aghast, you understand.)
As for McCain, there are practical arguments from the true Right in favor of him:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Ar…
“Conservatives consider him even more untrustworthy than Mitt, and seek to punish him for taking [LIBERAL, DEMOCRATIC-PARTY] stands on the environment, campaign finance, tax cuts and immigration.”
Rudi,
A Rockefeller/Ford Republican is an irrelevant Republicans. McCain probably has the same lack of leadership and vision that Ford suffered from.
I understand why the left is so excited about McCain. He is a lousy campaigner with no vision and no leadership skills. He is an easy target and should lose in a rout. However, even if he wins, the left still gets what it wants: open borders, unlimited immigration, increase spending, liberal judges, and increased government control of elections. About the only thing that the left would have to give up on McCAin is Iraq. However, I assume that the Left feels that they can take advantage of McCAin and “roll” him on national security any time they want.
SD – In the 60's and 70's the Ford's and Bill Milliken's (here and here) were the face of the Republican party. Bill Milliken still lives in Michigan and cares about issues related to Michigan. He didn't “burn down Atlanta” like John Engler and then run off to Washington to lobby for a manufacturing organization.
Excellent post, Dennis. Spot on.
“I can understand why the left is so excited about McCain”
Easy defeat — Democrat Lite, older and less appealing to the popularity-contest, superficiality-and-”symbolism”-over-substance Democratic voters in the center as well as on the Left.
McCain is gambling on swing voters, his only real hope.
It's a target audience sought by Clinton as well, with her fake “centrist” nonsense — she has to appeal to swing voters rather than her party's left wing, because for every lefty vote she seeks, in so doing she'll lose 2-3+ voters in the center.
More on McCain here (good reader remarks, as always)
http://www.townhall.com/blog/g/f80b5d3e-9f1b-4c…