Super Tuesday Looms Large: Can It Be We’re Only A Week From the End Of the Game?
Is it possible that a week from today that the Democratic and Republican presidential races will be over bar the shouting?
The likelihood the 22-state Super Tuesday primaries will produce prohibitive favorites in either let alone both parties would not seem to be great. But big-state wins by Hillary Clinton and John McCain would make them the presumptive nominees because it would be extremely difficult for their chief rivals — Barack Obama and Mitt Romney — to play catch up in the convention delegate races.
The wrangling between the Clinton and Obama campaigns over single delegates as in Nevada and Clinton’s push to seat blackballed Michigan and Florida delegates when there are more than 4,000 at stake shows how important the delegate race is going into Super Tuesday, especially with John Edwards now bowing out.
It took a few weeks longer than the Democrats, but a welcome shakeout in the Republican race after the Florida primary vote left Rudy Giuliani sucking his thumb and Mike Huckabee sucking his rivals’ dust.
Although Romney was a relatively close second to McCain, who got 36 percent of the vote compared to his 31 percent, Romney has won only one of the five contests he has entered and that was in Michigan where he has native-son status. In a way, the race is now Romney’s to lose although he has only two clear-cut advantages over McCain at this critical juncture — he is better organized in more states and can spend his sons’ inheritance to a fare thee well while the Arizona senator is scraping the bottom of the fundraising barrel.
Nevertheless, McCain’s win on a top-down-on-the-convertible Florida winter day was all the more impressive because this was a closed primary in which only registered Republicans could vote and he received broad support from mainstream Republicans in what will be a crucial swing state in November.
Giuliani’s expected endorsement of McCain will be overplayed in the media. After all, the one-time GOP front runner bombed so badly in Florida with a mere 15 percent of the vote after leading all Sunshine State polls for weeks that he will be bringing only a relatively small handful of supporters over to the Arizona senator.
According to exit polls, McCain bombed with conservatives in Florida. His greatest challenge may now be not so much beating back Romney as attracting independents while fending off the right-wing attack dogs for whom a McCain nomination is akin to the bubonic plague. As it was, Romney out-polled McCain among self-identified conservatives by 37 percent to 27 percent.
While I am ecstatic over the hit to Giuliani’s massive ego and marvel at his ability to blame everyone but himself, I take a special satisfaction in Huckabee’s fourth-place Florida finish with a pathetic 14 percent of the vote.
The Huckster was a novelty from Day One and has predictably revealed himself to be a resume without a man. There simply aren’t enough fellow evangelicals in the Super Tuesday states to jump-start the Preacher Man’s campaign, although he’s presumably still praying for a miracle while hoping to siphon votes from Romney as he did in Florida.
A Florida footnote: By Sunday, the final day of early voting, more than 1 million voters — some 10 percent of those eligible — had already cast a ballot.
I have seen the future and it is early voting, something that a few other states like California also are experimenting with. This sets up the interesting dynamic of masses of people voting well before the campaigns have played out.
I will be voting for Obama with guarded enthusiasm in my Super Tuesday primary and explain why here, but he is unlikely to win tiny Delaware, let alone big big big California, New Jersey and New York.
With 2,232 delegates need to secure the Democratic nomination, Clinton has 232 and Obama 158. John Edwards, who had 62. But as of today Clinton has the delegate edge in most of the Super Tuesday states, according to CNN‘s Delegate Scorecard, and with Edwards now gone it seems likely that the majority of his supporters — and perhaps his delegates, as well — will gravitate to her.
With 1,191 delegates needed on the Republican side, CNN says McCain has 97 and Romney 74. Huckabee is a distant third with 29 delegates, while Ron Paul (remember him?) has six and Giuliani a mere 2.
It ain’t over ’til it’s over, but it may be over a lot sooner than had been expected.
15 Responses to “Super Tuesday Looms Large: Can It Be We’re Only A Week From the End Of the Game?”
[...] The Moderate Voice – Domestic and international news analysis, irreverent comments, original reporti… wrote an interesting post today on Super Tuesday Looms Large: Can It Be Weâ??re Only A Week From the End Of the Game?Here’s a quick excerpt Is it possible that a week from today that the Democratic and Republican presidential races will be over bar the shouting? The likelihood the 22-state Super Tuesday primaries will produce prohibitive favorites in either let alone both parties would not seem to be great. But big-state wins by Hillary Clinton and John McCain would make them the presumptive nominees because it would be extremely difficult for their chief rivals — Barack Obama and Mitt Romney — to play catch up in the convention [...]
That's how coalitions are formed, Shaun, and that's what both parties will need to do to coalesce around a single candidate. The supporters of each of the major candidates represent distinct constitutencies within the parties. The parties are both ideologically heterodox.
Contrary to the happy talk of activists, both parties will need all of their constituencies pulling together come November and, historically, the more bitterly contested the primaries have been, the more difficult that's been.
[...] The Moderate Voice – Domestic and international news analysis, irreverent comments, original reporti… wrote an interesting post today on Super Tuesday Looms Large: Can It Be Weâ??re Only A Week From the End Of the Game?Here’s a quick excerpt Is it possible that a week from today that the Democratic and Republican presidential races will be over bar the shouting? The likelihood the 22-state Super Tuesday primaries will produce prohibitive favorites in either let alone both parties would not seem to be great. But big-state wins by Hillary Clinton and John McCain would make them the presumptive nominees because it would be extremely difficult for their chief rivals — Barack Obama and Mitt Romney — to play catch up in the convention [...]
[...] Shaun Mullen wrote an interesting post today on Super Tuesday Looms Large: Can It Be Weâ??re Only A Week From the …Here’s a quick excerptJohn Edwards (remember him?) has 62. But as of today Clinton has the delegate edge in most of the Super Tuesday states, according to CNN’s Delegate Scorecard. With 1191 delegates needed on the Republican side, CNN says McCain has 97 and … [...]
[...] The Moderate Voice – Domestic and international news analysis, irreverent comments, original reporti… wrote an interesting post today on Super Tuesday Looms Large: Can It Be Weâ??re Only A Week From the End Of the Game?Here’s a quick excerpt Is it possible that a week from today that the Democratic and Republican presidential races will be over bar the shouting? The likelihood the 22-state Super Tuesday primaries will produce prohibitive favorites in either let alone both parties would not seem to be great. But big-state wins by Hillary Clinton and John McCain would make them the presumptive nominees because it would be extremely difficult for their chief rivals — Barack Obama and Mitt Romney — to play catch up in the convention [...]
[...] The Moderate Voice – Domestic and international news analysis, irreverent comments, original reporti… wrote an interesting post today on Super Tuesday Looms Large: Can It Be Weâ??re Only A Week From the End Of the Game?Here’s a quick excerpt Is it possible that a week from today that the Democratic and Republican presidential races will be over bar the shouting? The likelihood the 22-state Super Tuesday primaries will produce prohibitive favorites in either let alone both parties would not seem to be great. But big-state wins by Hillary Clinton and John McCain would make them the presumptive nominees because it would be extremely difficult for their chief rivals — Barack Obama and Mitt Romney — to play catch up in the convention [...]
Dave:
Amen.
The party (except for ultraconservatives) seems to be coalescing around McCain. I think his strength as a candidate should not be underestimated, considering that he won several primaries after being outspent by Romney, who also had a superior organization. I wonder if talk radio hosts will continue to demonize him (McCain)if he gets the nomination?
“I think his strength as a candidate should not be underestimated,”
yes, I was indeed surprised to check the head to head polls and see McCain within statistical error of both D's.
Yes, it's possible. There will be even more leapfrogging of primaries in four years unless reform of some kind is imposed.
If McCain gets the R nod he'll be strong, BUT for his insane pro-war views. Even moderate R's see Iraq as a lost cause, despite all the BS about the surge.
If McCain had not bent over for Bush on the war he'd be a clear favorite over Hillary.
This makes an Obama win over her a necessity, or, in a Hill-Mac race, Bloomberg to step in.
Bloomberg, esp if those 2 are the noms. wd be the strongest 3rd party candidate since TR as a Bull Moose in 1912.
I agree, cosmo, but will Bloomberg step in? Let's just hope for O to win some big states come Super Tuesday.
Bloomberg is effectively another Democrat. Junk gun lawsuits disqualify him. The only reason for him to enter is to replace Clinton as the Dem candidate if Clinton is nominated.
Yes, Bloomberg, the billionaire media baron just another Democrat.
To the Far Right, anyone who's a moderate is left of Trotsky.
One factor that has to be remembered is that all Democratic contests are proportional where a lot of the Republican contests are winner take all. That could make a huge difference.