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Political Southpaw Predicts Republican Scenarios

Posted by PETE ABEL, Managing Editor in Politics.
Jan 16th, 2008 | Comments

Steve Benen — one of my favorite politically left writers — has given in to the siren’s call and attempted to read the crystal ball on where the Republican primaries are headed. He offers four possible scenarios:

* Republicans make their peace with McCain and he gets the nomination;

* Republicans decide they just can’t live with McCain as the party’s leader, but they split the anti-McCain vote four ways and he gets the nomination anyway;

* Republicans decide they just can’t live with McCain as the party’s leader, and they rally behind Romney;

* Republicans can’t decide anything, and head towards a brokered convention, much to the delight of reporters (who love the drama), political scientists (who love the history and deal-making), and Democrats (who love to see Republicans at each other’s throats).

From that list, I pick Door #2 as the most likely, with Door #4 close behind.

Now, I know what you’re thinking: Just this morning, after back-to-back, egg-on-the-face moments (post-NH and post MI), I swore off predictions. And here I am jumping right back into the mix. I can’t help it. Besides, I’ve been so remarkably wrong already, what’s one more stumble going to do … destroy the credibility I don’t have?

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casualobserver

Pete, I guess I understand a writer's/reporter's desire to be saying something astute/clever/foreshadowing at all points along the way of such a national and international attention getter, but I am a firm believer that in such a long process, it is patently impossible to predict outcomes when events that haven't happened yet are sure to occur and change things significantly. But have fun treating yourself to the abuse of constantly having to backtrack on last week's predictions! :)

Pete Abel

Casualobserver -- Point taken. I have a disease. I like to pontificate and later bask in the self-inflicted pain of the blatant wrongness of my pontifications :-)

Seriously, on this one, I thought Benen offered four fascinating if unpredictable "what if?" scenarios, and I do think it's human nature to enjoy the "what if," even if the "what if" is largely useless, much like watching TV.

DLS

What his bet on the outcome in Nevada? I hope Obama and the relevent union prevail over Clinton and the dinosaur union.

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB12004457...

* * *

I hope Thompson rather than Huck wins in South Carolina just to make things even more confusing with the GOP candidates.

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