President Bush, speaking yesterday:
I strongly believe that Europe will benefit when Turkey is a member of the European Union. I view Turkey as a bridge between Europe and the Islamic world, a constructive bridge.
And so I believe it’s in the interests of peace that Turkey be admitted into the EU…. I think Turkey sets a fantastic example for nations around the world to see where it’s possible to have a democracy coexist with a great religion like Islam and that’s important. (Al Jazeera)
I couldn’t agree more — this time, Bush has hit the nail on the head. Unfortunately, things have been stagnant between the EU and Ankara for a number of months, and accession is looking increasingly distant. The much-criticized Article 301 of the Penal Code, which criminalizes insults against “Turkishness,” has recently gone to the Turkish parliament to be amended but analysts say that the changes are “half-hearted” and just-for-show. Gareth Jenkins, over at Eurasia Monitor, reports that the new-and-improved Article 301 would merely replace the ban on insulting “Turkishness” with a ban on insulting the “Turkish nation”; additionally, the maximum prison sentence for such a crime is only being cut from three to two years. Not much to crow about, I’d say.
The Turkish government is dragging its feet on Cyprus as well. They’ve been unwilling to pull out troops, and have failed to agree to key trade concessions. In many ways, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Erdogan’s government is being constrained not only by a virulent nationalist opposition, but also by an increasingly EU-wary populace — recent polls have indicated that public support for EU accession is only around 50% (in late 2004, it was 75-80%).
My guess is that rising European hostility towards Turkish accession has played a major role in the country’s diminishing enthusiasm for the whole process. The inhospitable attitude of the French (and, to a lesser extent, the Austrians, the Germans, and the Greeks) has sent an unmistakable message to the Turks that they’re not wanted in the club, and that perhaps they shouldn’t even try. Nicolas Sarkozy has actually made his belief quite explicit, on a number of occasions, that Turkey is part of Asia Minor, and not Europe. (That said, France is still happy to string Ankara along. In particular, they’ve been very vague about whether or not they’ll halt the accession talks when they take over the EU presidency in mid-2008.)
On this one, though, Bush is right and the French are not — enabling the Turks to join the EU would have some important reverberations. Both the Europeans and the Turks need to do a better job facilitating this process.