Hillary Clinton Wins New Hampshire Democratic Primary

In the end, polls leading up to the New Hampshire primary vote showing a double-digit lead for Democratic Senator Barack Obama were wrong — and Senator Hillary Clinton scored an upset victory — once again tossing the (new) conventional wisdom out the window and creating a new political dynamic.

And so the stage is set for a battle royal — one likely to go the distance:

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won New Hampshire’s Democratic primary Tuesday night, pulling out a stunning victory over Sen. Barack Obama in a contest that she had been forecast to lose.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain defeated former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and climbed back into contention for their party’s presidential nomination.

Obama had beaten Clinton, who has been the national front-runner, in the Iowa caucuses last week, and he had appeared to be poised for victory in New Hampshire with tracking polls showing him surging into the lead.

But with 63 percent of Democrats precincts reporting Tuesday night, Clinton had 39 percent of the vote to 36 percent for Obama, who is seeking to become the nation’s first black president. Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina trailed with 17 percent.

Polling place interviews showed that the female vote — which deserted the former first lady when she finished third in last week’s Iowa caucuses — was solidly in Clinton’s New Hampshire column.

The former first lady also was winning handily among registered Democrats. Obama led her by an even larger margin among independents.

CBS News also has declared her the winner — and noted that the returns even surprised the Clinton camp:

Clinton, the former first lady who finished third in Iowa, was mounting an unexpectedly stiff challenge to Obama in the nation’s first primary. Polling place interviews showed that the female vote — which deserted the former first lady when she finished third in last week’s Iowa caucuses — was solidly in her New Hampshire column.

Clinton also was winning handily among registered Democrats. Obama led her by an even larger margin among independents.

She had 39 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary to 37 percent for Obama, who is seeking to become the nation’s first black president. Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina trailed with 17 percent.

Despite running a distant third to his better-funded rivals, Edwards had no plans to step aside. He pointed toward the South Carolina primary on Jan. 26, hoping to prevail in the state where he was born – and where he claimed his only victory in the presidential primaries four years ago.
Clinton’s performance, based on the early returns, surprised even her own inner circle.

The question is now being asked (we asked it much earlier): could the widely-publicized incident of Ms. Clinton choking up have played a role in an election result not mirrored in a slew of pre-election polls?

Stay tuned…

ALSO OF INTEREST:

–Be sure to read TMV co-blogger Mark Daniel’s reaction to the Clinton victory.

–Taegan Goddard asks some tantalizing questions about the surprise Clinton win.