Blacks and Hispanics are incredibility loyal Democratic voters. Those two groups are growing relative to whites.

It would help if Republicans started recruiting Black & Hispanic candidates. There has to be minority upper middle class voters who would be willing to vote Republican if given a reason and aren’t treated as interlopers.

See Japan or northern Europe to find out what can happen to countries where the mean age keeps getting higher. Eventually the tax rates get so high that they cannot produce the revenues to fund the welfare states and/or the economy slows down due to the Granny effect.

Yes. That will happen here, too; our problems will be less bad than Europe’s or Japan’s, but they will be substantial. Replacement migration to boost the labor force will be constrained politically. Taxpayers will be fighting the retirees.

It’s inconceivable in modern times to have substantial increases in Social Security benefit levels (cost growth will be required, along with benefit reductions in the form of realistic 70-plus retirement age settings), but I have raised this issue ever so gently once in a while because the income replacement rate of Social Security is quite low, I believe in the forties per cent. (It is particularly a bad payoff for those of us paying higher taxes.)

The demographic is that when people talk about independent voters, they are really talking about middle class and upper middle class whites. they are the ones that elections are fought over since they swing between parties. Blacks and Hispanics are incredibility loyal Democratic voters. Those two groups are growing relative to whites.

Eventually, national politics will resemble state wide politics in places like Maryland (a state that is one third black). The Republicans will be face with getting such a high percentage of the white vote to win, that they will stand no chance of winning.

The growth of Hispanic and blacks as a percentage of the population ensure that the Democrats will be the one, dominate party (See California).

The elderly are another problem. See Japan or northern Europe to find out what can happen to countries where the mean age keeps getting higher. Eventually the tax rates get so high that they cannot produce the revenues to fund the welfare states and/or the economy slows down due to the Granny effect.

Thank you for getting the comments back on track.

No problem — also, it remains to be seen how Bush affects the GOP candidates, which already are weak, don’t forget. Will he or won’t he appear with one or more candidates? Will his appearance be solicited (or avoided or even refused)?

Just wait until the Baby Boomers have retired in substantial numbers and they’re drawing Social Security checks and enjoying Medicare. Do you think they’ll want to see these programs threatened?

That’s all I have to say about the real future demographic issue.

A Huckabee at the top of the ticker would be harmful for any of the down ticket candidates. The last few Republicans in New England would be gone along with the last few in the Mid-Atlanic. A Huckabee candidacy makes 60 seats for the Democrats a greatly possibility.

A fair analysis. Thank you for getting the comments back on track.

The only developing panic is among the “Country Club Republican” faction, and Wall Street and the business community, that if Huckabee were to continue to rise (which I doubt he will), something would have to be done to sabotage his campaign, if not shove him into a corner called the Vice Presidency, hopefully to keep the Religious Right votes coming in.

And these people aren’t yet truly starting to panic.

We’ll see if Giuliani or Romney (not the GOP as a whole) start to panic if they sink below McCain or Huckabee after Feb 5.

There is no strategy or plan that the Republicans can do that will help them. They are a minority party that appeals to demographic groups that are shrinking. Any attempt to appeal to core Democratic groups will fail as surely as President Bush’s immigration reform (which of course reads almost identically to Obama’s immigration reform plan except that I doubt any Democratic Administration would ever implement or fund the enforcement mechanisms.

If Senator Obama wins in New Hampshire, the United States is looking at the longest transition period ever (over one year) since there is no way a Republican is going to win this year.

Would it be too much to ask if we took the comments thread back to the actual post?

Thanks in advance.

Which proves exactly the point I was making. Nothing gets done no matter which side is in the minority. Which will further prove the point I was making in that when Obama gets into office……..nothing will get done because……….Politics has become about social agendas instead of the business of running this country.

Its not a republican strategy. Its a governmental strategy. Read up on the history of Filibusters and cloture in congress. You will find that those who have most actively employed the strategy are democrats, closely followed by their fellow Republicans who are learning fast. In fact if you remember things got so bad that Bill Frist the GOP leader in the Senate was going to try to ban filibustering on judicial nominees.

Why? Because politics has become about social agendas instead of running the nation as a business.

Because Cynthia McKinney filed a lawsuit claiming that the voting rights of black Democrats were violated because white Republicans could cross over and vote in the Democratic primary. The Republicans knew that they would never be able to beat McKinney in a general election so Rebublicans crossed over and voter for his least liberal black, Democratic opponent during the Democratic Primary.

SD- And you know this —-how???LOL

Over 90% of elected Hispanics are Democrats. Virtually 100% of elected blacks are Democrats. Why would anyone with enough ambition to run for office who is black or Hispanic run as a Republican when so few blacks or Hispanics will vote for any Republican?

also, I find it humorous that the Democratic party screams racism when it was Republicans who crossed over in the Democratic Primary to vote racist, bigot Cynthia McKinney out of office twice. The Democratic voters were content to leave her in office.

The democrats didnt want us out of Iraq. Why? They would have no selling point.

Are you really saying that we’re still in Iraq because the Democrats want us there?

That’s the reason?

PS I think having gotten us out of Iraq might have been a fairly strong selling point for the Democrats. Maybe the President was afraid of letting that happen?

Does anyone doubt that as the Hispanic and black populations grow relative to whites, that many more safe districts will be created?

If you think that demographics is the problem, there is a simple solution, find upper-middle class Blacks, Hispanics, Asians and recruit them to run as Republicans and get your white Republicans to vote for them.

If on the other hand the problem is that Republicans have been a bunch of racist running on the southern strategy for the last thirty years, well you reap what you sow.

always thought that the Republicans would become irrelevant sometime between 2020 and 2030 due to nothing more than changing demographics. But the total incompetence of the Bush Administration has moved up the date by about twenty years.

LOL – When Shaun or someelse says this it’s BDS “all the time”.

Somebody:

Nothing. Nothing got done.

WTF – It’s a Republican strategy, the minority party is Republican and filibusters are up.

Shaun – On Obama and cynicism, Bush is an example of aristocracy and Obama is ACTUALLY an exampleof meritocracy. The Republican party attacks affirmative action and demands meritocracy over nepotism and aristocracy.

Wait a month and see if change matters. Before ANY votes were cast, the elite MSM (Ivy League and beltway, not Liberal) spoke of inevitability of Rudy and Hillary, well elite media and party brokers were wrong in Iowa. These same people laughed off Carter and Reagan. The Dick Morris’ and Joe Trippi’s are Mr. Morris’ “first name”.