US Presidential Marathon Begins: ‘World is Watching’

I wrote in an earlier post that although the people in the world were eager to follow the US presidential election 2008, they find it difficult to wade through the flood of material being churned out in the media and make some sense out of it.

Many people still turn to the British media for help. For example…The Independent has two stories today that clarify many issues. First the news: “The phoney war is over. Tonight, in school rooms, church halls and private homes across the Midwestern state of Iowa, the first votes will be cast that actually count, kicking off the most unpredictable, the most expensive and arguably the most important presidential election season in modern US history.

“Hyperbole is the currency of American politics but this time the superlatives are justified. When the process at last comes to an end, spending by candidates will have far exceeded $1bn. The Democratic and Republican fields are uncommonly strong, but in neither is there a clear favourite. And never have the stakes been higher – not only for the US but for countries all over the planet.

“Iowa, of course, is just the start of it. Next Tuesday, New Hampshire holds the first primary of the season, this year more closely watched than ever. Tuesday, 5 February has already been called ‘Tsunami Tuesday,’ when up to 22 states hold primaries and caucuses. Conceivably, the outcome will be settled then. If not, however, the primary season continues until early June. Then come the nominating conventions, followed by a two-month general election campaign proper that culminates on 4 November, when Americans will finally choose their 44th president.

“Every election in the world’s lone superpower matters, but only a few of them qualify for the label of’”transformational’, those that set the country on a new course. 1932 was one, ushering in Franklin D Roosevelt, the New Deal and more than three decades of Democratic pre-eminence. Another was 1980, which brought to power Ronald Reagan and the conservatism that has dominated US politics ever since. Almost three decades on, 2008 has the potential to be the same.”

Now let’s turn to the comment part: “Voters in Iowa will tonight fire the starting pistol for one of the most open and potentially thrilling US presidential races for decades. By the early hours of tomorrow morning, some of the key early questions should have been answered, at least on the Democrats’ side. Does Hillary Clinton go to New Hampshire as the favourite for the presidency, or has she stumbled at the first hurdle? Was Barack Obama able to compensate for his inexperience with a sense of excitement and that JFK touch? Did John Edwards, the sharp-suited lawyer from North Carolina, benefit from a late surge in support, as some polls suggested?

“The answers on the Republican side are likely to be less categorical: there are too many early candidates, all much of a muchness in terms of obvious strengths and weaknesses. Still, there will be straws in the wind. Did Rudy Giuliani’s lifestyle and social liberalism impair his chances? How did Mike Huckabee’s mix of folksiness and fundamentalism play outside the Deep South? Was John McCain able to recover some of the magic that made him the early front-runner eight long years ago? Could a Mormon be the next US President?

“…A US President has the capacity to change not just the US, but the world – for better and, as Mr Bush has so disastrously shown, for worse. With the US economy languishing, the US military now almost alone in Iraq and the country’s international influence as low as it has been in recent years, there is much damage to be repaired. Tonight in Iowa is where the post-Bush age begins.”

Iowa will on Thursday stage the first of the state-by-state contests to choose Republican and Democratic nominees for the November 2008 presidential election. Reuters provides a useful calendar of the 2008 U.S. presidential nominating state primaries and caucuses. In some states, the contests are nonbinding and separate caucuses or conventions are scheduled to select delegates to the national conventions. More here…

Here’s The Telegraph’s take on the Iowa poll: “Exhausted and hoarse-voiced, US presidential hopefuls wrapped up a marathon campaign in Iowa last night before the first stage today of the process that will decide the nominees for the presidential election in November…The victors will receive a considerable boost before the next state, New Hampshire, votes on Tuesday, though a strong second place can often be an equally useful springboard for success…The eventual winners of the nominations should be clear by early February, when a further 25 states will have made their choices.” More here…

US President George Bush will not leave office until 20 January 2009, but the race to succeed him is heating up. The BBC provides “Q&A: US Presidential Election”. Click here…