Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani has launched yet another ad linking himself to 911 (relating it to World War II) but now some political analysts and Giuliani supporters wonder whether his camp made a fatal political mistake that makes it seem as if his candidacy is shrinking with each passing day.
The mistake: bowing out of both the Iowa AND the New Hampshire primary early vote competitions — votes that provide lots of free air time and ink to candidates and cement the idea in voters’ heads that the candidates in those races are running for President.
No one is yet accusing Giuliani of pulling a Fred “Freddy Come Lately” Thompson by getting into the race too soon or being so laid back during some appearances that he could be mistaken for a meditation instructor. (A more favorable impression of Thompson can be found HERE with videos.)
But there is a lot of second guessing going on now, due to the fact that Giuliani’s poll numbers have slipped badly and the media focus is largely on the candidates sparring for votes in Iowa and New Hampshire…which do not include Rudy. The New York Observer;
What was Rudy Giuliani thinking when he decided not to contest the primary all-out in New Hampshire?
That’s a question a lot of political observers, and some of Giuliani’s own New Hampshire supporters, have been asking lately as the former mayor slides steadily off the national media’s radar.
The Giuliani campaign has said that it is a media misperception that Giuliani hasn’t been fully engaged in New Hampshire, even as he has spent a lot more time than the other candidates campaigning in February 5 states. (Yesterday, today and part of tomorrow, he’s in Florida.) The Giuliani campaign also insists that the former mayor does not need early-voting-state victories because he is so popular in the delegate-rich states that come further down the road.
And, to be sure, that statement shouldn’t be totally dismissed. There is a tendency in both media and blog coverage to look at what existing reportage and commentary and use that as the framework for further comment and reportage (just like this post is doing). So there could indeed be other factors that are being ignored by the media.
Still, the poll trending, timing of the primaries and recent bad stories do not paint a portrait of a candidate on the political ascent:
Now, Giuliani now has to watch the main primary contests essentially from the sidelines and hope that either Mike Huckabee can damage Mitt Romney in Iowa, or that John McCain can muddle the picture in New Hampshire. Even then, Giuliani will most likely have to compete in the February 5 states from the disadvantaged, inert position of a non-player in the early voting states.
The Observer then quotes a highly respected political expert who has an excellent track record in analyzing and predicting elections:
Most of the experienced neutral observers I’ve talked to have been, to say the least, skeptical of the strategy. “He never had a chance in Iowa, because of the special nature of their electorate and this tiny caucus turnout, but there is no reason in the world why Rudy Giuliani could not have won New Hampshire,” said Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia. “Giuliani completely miscalculated. He assumed that Romney could not be dislodged and both Huckabee and McCain have proven him wrong. If he had focused on New Hampshire and won New Hampshire, even come in second, his Florida Super Duper Tuesday strategy could have been vindicated.”
Mark Blumenthal, the editor and publisher of Pollster.com, called the Giuliani campaign’s decisions “somewhat mystifying decision.”
“The story for the first week in January has been loser, and that’s not a good story,” he said.
And Blumenthal pointed out that there’s lots more of it to come.
“If you are the winner, the coverage says your campaign was effective, and for the losers it’s the reverse,” he said, adding, “When you are out of the story it can’t be good.”
But what about unforeseen events — such as the murder of Pakistan opposition leader Benazir Bhutto? As the Los Angeles Times notes, this could shift the focus of the Presidential race away from domestic issues to foreign affairs and security issues — a shift that would help Arizona Senator John McCain and Giuliani.
Giuliani has used the event to his advantage:
Rudy Giuliani sent his condolences to the family of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated earlier this morning. He called the terrorist attack that took Bhutto’s life tragic and jarring for the people of Pakistan, and said it reminds Americans that President Bush made the “right decision to go on offense” against Islamic terrorism.
The former mayor also suggested “doubling our forces” in and around the region.
Giuliani invoked September 11th when mentioning this morning’s carnage in which at least two dozen were killed, saying both events show a different kind of world he says we live in under current terrorist threats. When asked about his new campaign ad that emphasizes his role on 9/11, he said it provides “proportionate emphasis” on an event “that was an important part of my life.”
He also justified its political appropriateness by saying that Hillary Clinton and President Bush have used images and references to 9/11 while campaigning for office.
New, unforeseen events can create a totally new political backdrop for an election.
Yet, while Giuliani has been out of the hard-news Iowa and New Hampshire news cycles, another candidate has been getting stories written about his energy, zestful campaigning energized by his rising polls in New Hampshire...someone who makes and strong statements supporting the war and and is one of the nation’s hardest hard liners on terrorism: Arizona Senator John McCain.
Columnist Robert Novak reports that many GOPers now see the never-give-up McCain as rising from the Republican and national media’s political dead — increasingly being perceived by party bigwigs as the only man who can defeat New York Senator Hillary Clinton, who is still the favorite for the Democratic nomination.
McCain has been out there no matter what, even when he lost much of his money and campaign staff. Giuliani has been out there, too…but perhaps was not out there where he needed to be. And he could pay a substantial political price. He has little leeway left for further political miscalculations.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.