Live Blog 2012 Elections: OBAMA RE-ELECTED 303 EV to 203 EV (Updated)
10:06 pm PTS: And so it’s over: Mitt Romney has conceeded in a graceful concession speech. Another great drama in American political democracy has come to an end.
9:08 pm PST: The Romney campaign isn’t conceeding Ohio, keeping with Karl Rove’s comments on Fox News. This sounds as if no matter what the count is, the Romney campaign is toying with legal action. Just a hunch. But it isn’t over until a)all the votes are in or the vast majority of states have been called and b)really over until Romney conceeds — which is bringing the nation together. Colorado has just gone for Obama.
8:54 pm PST: Donald Trump Tweet:
@ realDonaldTrump : This election is a total sham and a travesty. We are not a democracy!
8:57 pm PST: The Daily Mail Online:
President Barack Obama won re-election to the White House tonight with a landslide victory over Mitt Romney, according to projections from most of the television networks.
Broadcast networks called the 2012 presidential election for Obama as he swept the map with wins in the swings states of Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire while Florida and Virginia still hung in the balance.
Obama seemed poised for a resounding electoral college win – despite predictions of one of the tightest finishes in history and the dogged insistence of Romney advisers that they were making gains all over the political battlefield.
Despite unemployment standing at 7.9 per cent and Obama performing very poorly during the first presidential debate, Romney was crushed nationally, though he might finish only just behind in the popular vote.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2229053/US-Presidential-Election-results-2012-Comeback-kid-Obama-headed-White-House-2nd-term.html#ixzz2BVdoXZNH
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8:46 pm PST: Daily Kos’ Kos live blogging:
8:33 PM PT: The Romney campaign wants Fox News to wait on their call because they’re really, really sad. Now the anchors are literally getting up to go find their “decision desk” to grill them. Other anchor says, “We’ve got to get to the bottom of this.”
8:38 PM PT: Seriously, Rove — the guy whose math has never been right — is challenging the guys with real calculators. [TMV Editor's note: Rove insists it is not over.]
8:38 pm PST: BREAKING: NBC News is calling Ohio for President Barack Obama: he has been re-elected. (As this is being written GOP political maven Karl Rove is on Fox News insisting that it is not really over. Is there some surprise in store or is this the last rhetorical hurrah?) The New York Times:
Barack Obama was re-elected as president on Tuesday, the television networks projected, defeating Mitt Romney after a long, hard-fought campaign that centered on who would heal the battered economy and on what role government should play in the 21st century.
The president’s official Twitter account quickly posted: “This happened because of you. Thank you.”
CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News all projected that Mr. Obama would defeat Mr. Romney after concluding that he would win the necessary 270 electoral votes.
Mr. Obama carried New Hampshire and Pennsylvania and was projected by television networks to win Wisconsin, three states Mr. Romney had pursued to block Mr. Obama’s re-election.
As a succession of states fell away from Mr. Romney, a hush fell over his Boston headquarters. Advisers sounded uncharacteristically pessimistic about what they acknowledged were dwindling chances of winning an Electoral College majority.
The mood at the Obama campaign in Chicago was optimistic as the outcome of the hard-fought presidential race was dependent on Mr. Romney’s running the table in the rest of the competitive battleground states.
Americans delivered a final judgment on a long and bitter campaign that drew so many people to the polls that several key states extended voting for hours. In Virginia and Florida, long lines stretched from polling places, with the Obama campaign sending text messages to supporters in those areas, saying: “You can still vote.
Here are some Tweets just posted on CNN:
Ari Fleischer @AriFleischer
Congratulations to President Obama. He got his vote out and won. He’s my President and President of all Americans.
8:31 PMPeter Hamby @PeterHambyCNN
Applause in Romney ballroom as Rove says the race still isn’t over
8:31 PMDavid Gergen @David_Gergen
Great pageant of democracy today. Let us all wish President Obama a successful second term! #CNNElections
8:28 PMPeter Hamby @PeterHambyCNN
Top Republican on the Obama ground game: “Their deal was much more real than I expected.”
THIS IS THE LIVE BLOGGING FROM EARLIER:
Newest info will be on TOP. This will be updated all night and re-headlined throughout the evening.
8:06 pm PST: Romney to lose Florida? Read the first entry in The Atlantic live blogging. Here’s a chunk of it here:
11:03p.m.: “ABC News sources say that Jeb Bush told The Romney campaign that they lost Florida,” Univision’s Raúl De Molina tweets.
10:59p.m.: Bloomberg calls North Carolina for Romney.
10:54p.m.: Todd Akin is giving his concession speech. “To God alone be the honor and the glory, regardless of how he decides to organize history,” he says. So far, the Republican Party’s rape gaffe candidates have not done well tonight.
10:50p.m.: With Minnesota called for Obama, Axelrod’s mustache is safe.
George Will predicted social conservatives would deliver this state for Romney because there was a gay marriage ballot measure.
10:29p.m.: Karl Rove still thinks Romney can win Ohio. Not all conservatives share his optimism. “Two obvious lessons so far: it’s a different country demographically. And mediocre candidates lose elections,” Tucker Carlson tweets.
7:59 pm PST: More Tweets from the Romney ballroom suggest a campaign on death watch. Remember: it ain’t over yet. All paths to Romney victory are NOT gone. But these don’t suggest buoyant optimism:
Jack Tame ?@jacktame
In foyer area of Romney ballroom they aren’t playing live results any longer.. just pro-Romney, family-centric ads.
16m Molly Ball ?@mollyesque
Mood inside Romney ballroom being described as “funereal” by some inside. They’re watching Scott Brown’s concession on the monitors.
37m James Hohmann ?@jameshohmann
There is no energy in this Romney ballroom. They just changed channel to CBS, which says that the election leans toward Obama.
Expand51m Nicholas Kristof ?@NickKristof
MT @tripgabriel: Dead silence in Romney ballroom as Fox News says it’s much harder for Romney to get to 270 than Obama.
54m Trip Gabriel ?@tripgabriel
Dead silence in Romney’s ballroom as Fox News says “at this point is much harder for Mitt Romney to get to 270 than Barack Obama.”
1h Rachel Syme ?@rachsyme
That cutaway to the Romney ballroom where they are blasting Hall and Oates and people are slumping over was almost mumblecore.
1h Ana Marie Cox ?@anamariecox
#singletear #romneydisappointments RT @AshleyRParker: Dead silence in Romney ballroom when Fox News announces that he lost Michigan.
2h Bill Oakley ?@thatbilloakley
Fox News reports RECORD-BREAKING turnout for Romney (in hotel ballroom where he will deliver concession speech).
7:56 pm PST: Not a festive mood in the Romney ballroom, according to this Tweet:
Near total silence in Romney ballroom. If I spoke loudly, people would look up at me in the rafters, giving me the stink eye
7:21 PM – 6 Nov 12 ·
7:51 pm PST: The Street:
Josh Brown, founder of The Reformed Broker:
“Obama takes the vote home in the Electoral College (the only place it counts, thanks to our inability to abolish this slavery-era construct) but the popular vote will be quite close. Meanwhile, the House and Senate split between Blues and Reds. This means four more years of gridlock winter, the continued court battles over health care and a last-minute ugly compromise on fiscal cliff issues before Christmas. The market will sell off into that battle, rally back on its resolution, cause a lot of consternation in the process, but will end up having gone nowhere.
“Thus, frustration shall be the order of the day for Republicans, Democrats, bulls, bears and, most deliciously, forecasters with strong opinions in one direction or the other. None shall have satisfaction this season.”
Rocco Pendola, writer at TheStreet:
“As I explained last week in Obama Won the Election This Week, Hurricane Sandy, particularly N.J. Gov. Chris Christie’s more-than-positive response to Washington’s support, cinched the election for Barack Obama.
“This put Mitt Romney in the unfortunate situation of having to a.) step out of the spotlight and b.) put the gloves back on. That, alongside ultimately lame Fox News-fueled attempts to make Libya a campaign issue and somewhat upbeat jobs numbers of late, tipped the scales in favor of the incumbent.
“Obama seals the deal relatively early Tuesday night with more than 290 electoral votes. Christie runs as a moderate Republican and a ‘uniter’ in 2016.”
7:48 pm PST: The Daily Beast’s Howard Kurtz notes that Obama seems to be getting close to 70:
President Obama appears poised to win reelection if he can carry either Florida or Ohio as Mitt Romney’s failure to capture a single swing state has narrowed his path to an electoral majority.
Obama has swept the Northeast and Upper Midwest and Mitt Romney has seized the South, but as Tuesday night wore on the candidates remained locked in an extraordinarily tight contest in Florida and Virginia, while the president was holding onto a lead in Ohio.
Romney is now in a position where it is increasingly unlikely that he can win the White House without winning both Florida and Ohio. Conservatives, including Sarah Palin, are already talking about his candidacy in the past tense.
With the president carrying such states as Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, Maryland, Illinois, even Paul Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin–and Romney capturing a broad swath from Texas and Louisiana to South Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas and North and South Dakota, according to network projections–there were no big takeaways.
In exit polls, Obama has an edge among voters who feel he relates to average people while Mitt Romney has an advantage on handling the economy.
7:23 pm PST: Listening to Stephanie Cutter on MSNBC (I get XM radio and was driving) others on the MSNBC panel picked up what I could HEAR: the Obama camp seems absolutely confident and cautiously ecstatic. Cable interviews with Obama political maven Robert Gibbs gave the same impression. And reportedly (I didn’t have a TV) Dems in the background when Cutter talked were beaming. This is what I had picked up in my TV and web surfing in 2004 when many thought John Kerry might be elected: there was a seeming relief and confidence in the Bush camp.
Additionally, so many races now seem to be breaking the Democrats way — and we’re seeing a virtual repudiation of Tea Party style Senate candidates who are not just anethema to Democrats but to many more moderate Republicans — and they do exist.
Can there still be a surprise and Obama still lose? Yes. But a variety of pundits suggest the Obama campaign is on target in terms of the demographic and early voting goals they set. The demographic issue will be a huge one for the GOP if Obama loses. Look for a battle royal within the GOP.
7:22 pm PST: CBS projects Obama will win Wis., Pa., N.H.; The crucial battleground state of Ohio also leans toward the president:
CBS News projects President Obama will win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. The key battleground state of Ohio is leaning toward the president.
Ohio, with 18 electoral votes, is one of the most competitive states on the map. Mr. Obama won the state by 4.6 percent in 2008. In 2004, President Bush won Ohio by 2.1 percent.
In 2008, Mr. Obama won Wisconsin by 13.9 percent. The state, which carries 10 electoral votes, hasn’t gone red in a presidential election since 1984. Even with Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan on the ticket, Mitt Romney faced a steep challenge in his fight for the Badger State. However, the state has been a hotbed of partisan discord in recent years and Republicans saw huge gains at the state level in 2010.
New Hampshire has just four electoral votes, but it was one of the most competitive states in the nation — it’s the only state that George W. Bush won in 2000 but lost in 2004. In 2008, Mr. Obama won the Granite State by 9.6 percent.
5:49 pm PST: Romney internals reportedly show Obama up in Ohio by five. CNN:
5:44 pm PST: For the first time tonight, Obama has now taken the electoral college lead, 79 to 63.
5:21 pm PST: An excerpt from Andrew Sullivan’s live blogging:
8.05 pm. The Ohio exits give Obama a 51-48. [Fox News' Bill] O’Reilly is talking up Hurricane Sandy. Not good signs for Romney. Now O’Reilly’s blaming Christie.
8.04 pm. So far, the exit polls look promising for the president. CNN’s exit polls make Virginia and North Carolina dead heats.
5:19 pm PST: NBC news has it so far at 82 electoral votes for Romney and 64 for Obama with 270 needed to win.
5:15 pm PST:
ABC News Projects OBAMA Will Win Massachusetts, Illinois, Maryland, Rhode Island, Delaware, District of Columbia; ROMNEY Will Win Oklahoma
5:12 pm PTS: Tweet from CNN’s David Gergen:
NOTE: Info is coming out in dribs and drabs so we may hold a bit for the next updates. This will not be updated 6 pm – 7 pm PST.
David Gergen ?@David_Gergen
So far, exit poll results closely mirroring public polls heading into today — that is good omen for the President. #CNNElections
Retweeted 273 times
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New Jersey has extended the deadline for email voting for displaced residents until Friday as complications of a last-minute provision to help voters displaced by last week’s storm cast ballots.
The decision was announced Tuesday as some county election offices were swamped with requests for email ballots.
The email option is available only to voters displaced by the storm and who are willing to give up their right to a private ballot. Voters still must request ballots by 5 p.m. Tuesday to take advantage of the voting option.
4:31 pm PST: NBC calls Ohio too close to call.
4:27 pm PST: The Politico reports that Team Romney sounded quite bullish about winning on a phone call:
Top advisers to Mitt Romney told supporters that turnout is beating their models in a number of key battlegrounds in swing states, according to sources familiar with a Tuesday afternoon conference call.
Political Director Rich Beeson, senior adviser Ron Kaufman and others provided information on a handful of counties in pivotal states — some of it hard, some of it anecdotal — according to a report on the call provided by two Republican sources.
Whether the vibes they’re feeling are the harbinger of a wave or a ripple remains to be seen, but Romney’s team is projecting confidence to its own inner circle of top supporters in the final hours of balloting.
In particular, Romney’s camp expects to win Adams County, Colo., where President Barack Obama beat John McCain 58 percent to 40 percent among the roughly 160,000 ballots cast in 2008. They’re also feeling confident about the Denver swing suburbs in Arapahoe and Jefferson counties, based on early voting and early Election Day turnout among Democrats and Republicans.
In Florida, Romney advisers say, long lines in Republican-leaning areas, including Bay County, Walton County, Escambia County and Cuban-heavy Hialeah have given them confidence, along with what they report is heavier-than-expected Republican voting in bellwether Pasco County and shorter wait times than usual in Democratic-laden Miami-Dade County.
Evidence of good news is more scant in Ohio and Virginia, though reports on those prized states were also provided. The Romney aides say they are seeing higher turnout in counties that McCain carried in 2008, compared with turnout of Democrats. However, the lion’s share of Ohio’s Democratic votes come from a handful of counties around Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Toledo. Among counties in Ohio that Romney’s team cited was Athens, which Obama carried in 2008, and which Romney aides have told supporters is down in turnout.
4:11 pm PST: 4Interesting observation by Daily Kos founder Kos:
4:08 PM PT: Exit polling: Obama winning 59-39 among young voters, which is not a particularly good sign for the GOP’s future prospects.
If they can’t win today, with this demographic profile, how are they going to compete in 2016 with an even younger and browner electorate? They’re going to have to change, do things like support comprehensive immigration reform. But does anyone really think that’s going to happen?
4:06 pm PST: NBC and some other networks are now starting to call Kentucky and Indiana for Romney, Vermont for Obama. Virginia still too close to call. GO HERE for NBC’s report and their map.
A little anecdote. During the 2004 election I VERY COMPREHENSIVELY surfed right and left blogs. Liberal blogs were convinced John Kerry had it. Right blogs were convinced it was GWB. In surfing and reading accounts of the mood and words of staffers from each side I concluded early in the evening: Kerry would lose. But you would never know that reading left and right blogs that were often peppered with diaries and blog posts by writers putting on cyberspace their political hopes, versus what the data was indicated. It needs to be stressed here again: it isn’t until this lady sings – and she hasn’t yet. She has barely begun..
3:39 pm PST: A collection of exit polls initially circulated by GOP staffers shows Obama ahead in most of them (see below about perils of exit polls).
3:32 pm PST: Josh Marshall on the exit polls:
Gonna start here by saying all early exit polls are highly preliminary. Not just the toplines but the demographic and issue questions. So expect these to change. But those early numbers out now point to an electorate that looks like the 2008 electorate in terms of age breakdown, racial breakdown and so forth. The numbers themselves are preliminary and those just give us hints about final results. But this has been one of the big debates of the cycle. Are we looking at a 2004 electorate? 2008? 2010? These extremely preliminary hints point to a 2008 electorate.
If there is indeed a voting electorate peppered with a large number of young voters and Latinos then that could help Obama. But the mindset that this is a re-run of 2008, even subliminally, is perilous: the antipathy towards Obama and GOP motivation to get him out is also greater. So he or she who puts his credibility on the exit polls could morph into Dick Morris (unless Morris’s talk about a Romney landslide proves correct).
3:25 pm PST: As noted below we will NOT cover a lot of exit polls. Ezra Klein has a piece explaining why not to take them seriously. Here are some of his main points (go to the link to read it all):
Reporting a presidential election is a big challenge for television networks. They have have huge interest in a news event – but not much information to share.
Enter, the exit polls: Early surveys administered at about 1,000 polling locations across the country. At their best, exit polls give election junkies an early sense of how the American electorate is leaning. At their worst, their data can be incomplete and misleading. Early exit polls don’t always capture the full picture of who is voting; supposed “leaks” are often inaccurate.
“It’s an interesting contest of peek-a-boo,” says Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll. “The only people who have access are the paying clients. Everybody else can only see what those clients leak out or report. It’s a bit of a game in that sense, depending on what comes out, like reading tea leaves when the Vatican is choosing a new pope.”
It’s hard to divine when polls will prove accurate – and when they’ll lead election watchers astray. Pollsters do, however, have a few tips on how to make the most of election polls.
TIPS:1. The first rule of exit polls is this: Before 5 p.m., there are no exit polls…2. Take early exit polling results with a “giant grain of salt.”..3. Early exit polls may favor Obama more than the overall vote…4. Keep an eye on the demographics
3:20 pm PST: Drudge puts on flashing red light “EXIT POLLS TIGHT”
Note that we will report exit polls here SPARINGLY and wait for official results. This is only to give an initial flavor of the emerging votes.
3:16 pm PST: Two interesting Tweets on CNN exit polls but remember a)people need to vote and not be influenced by exit polls:
Jeff Gauvin ?@JeffersonObama
CNN Reporting Record Latino Exit Polls and 2008 style 18-35 Turnout tonight based on Exit Polls. EXCELLENT
8m Rod Snyder Rod Snyder ?@RodSnyderWV
CNN is reporting strong youth turnout according to early exit polls. 18% of all voters are under age 30 — same as 2008. #winning @youngdems
3:06 pm PST: Drudge Report screaming headline:
EXIT POLL BOOM FOR O
R: NC, FL
O: OH, NH, PA, MI, NV
TOSS UP: VA, CO, IA
WARNING: Exit polls are NOT the final polls and should not be considered as such..
2:59 pm PST: Exit polls are starting to come in but remember they are HIGHLY unreliable. Here’s a quick list of some now mentioning exit polls:
David Shuster ?@DavidShuster
Conservative Drudge report showing Obama leading exit polls in PA, MI, NH, NV, and OH. If that holds, Romney is toast. #current2012
14m MPR Politics MPR Politics ?@MPRpolitics
Exit polls – Romney up in: NC, FL | Obama up in: OH, NH, PA, MI, NV | TOSS UP: VA, CO, IA http://mprne.ws/f4R2N via Drudge Report
14m Brendan Loy Brendan Loy ?@brendanloy
Not enough? RT @jonkarl: In two ABC prelim exit polls, Romney slightly edges Obama on handling of the economy and deficit (51-47 and 50-46)
18m Jonathan Karl Jonathan Karl ?@jonkarl
In two ABC prelim exit polls, Romney slightly edges Obama on handling of the economy and the deficit (51-47 and 50-46 percent)
18m Justen Charters Justen Charters ?@JustenCharters
Don’t let the exit polls fool you. The lamestream media is trying to make this look like Obama’s day, Romney will win. #tcot #GOP
22m Byron Tau Byron Tau ?@ByronTau
CBS early national exit polls: 15 percent said Obama’s hurricane response was the most important factor in their vote.
29m Shelly Lynne Hartman Shelly Lynne Hartman ?@shellslynne
RT@GARock945: The way early exit polls are going, the only state Obama is leading in right now is the state of denial. #Booya!
31m Kari22 Kari22 ?@KKoz22