Big Push By Candidates In Iowa To Win Votes (And Conservatives)
It’s down to the home stretch in Iowa. After a day of Peace On Earth Goodwill To Men (and Women) it’s now back to the antithesis: the political campaign to win the Iowa caucuses for the 2008 Democratic and Republican Presidential nominations.
The biggest prize: the conservative voter, who seems more undecided than ever, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at the head of the pack. ABC News:
In the modern era, a race this wide open is unprecedented. And with just eight days to go before the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, now it’s crunch time.
For the Democrats, it’s largely a three-way fight among Clinton, Obama and Edwards.
Her “inevitability” on the line, Clinton launched a “Bring a Buddy to Caucus” campaign in an effort to get first-time women caucus-goers through the wintery weather on caucus night.
“We have hundreds and hundreds of women in the 90s who want to caucus for me,” Clinton said this month in Bettendorf, Iowa.
It’s clear that if Romney doesn’t do well in Iowa, he won’t become Mr. Big Mo but Mr. Big Schmoe:
Among Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney and Huckabee have the most at stake here. Romney’s early lead has slipped as Huckabee’s surprise surge among the state’s conservatives has launched him into the role of Iowa’s front-runner.
Romney has banked on early victories, creating a wave of momentum, has spent millions in the state and brags about his Iowa organization.
Romney has big problems: he’s not just finding himself not endorsed by newspapers in neighboring New Hampshire but virtually denounced, he has to fend off the Huckabee challenge (even with Rush Limbaugh badmouthing Huckabee) and he still is being raked over the coals for saying he saw his father march with Dr. Martin Luther King (highly improbable it turns out). Plus: his after-the-fact parsing of his original words about his father’s marching with King sound like a certain former Democratic President whose wife is running on the Democratic side (who will remain nameless here…)
But, as we noted earlier, the big battle is over the conservative voter — and it’s up for grabs (that post is being inserted here due to a technical glitch on the earlier post):
By all accounts — and if you look at the roller-coaster polls over the past few weeks it confirms the anecdotal journalism — the January 3 Iowa caucus date is getting closer and closer and many Republicans in Iowa are more undecided than ever (good news for media types and bloggers…bad news for political campaigns). The AP reports:
Presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee would seem to be the answer to their prayers, yet for many Christian conservatives in Iowa, he has not closed the deal for the Republican caucuses.
Do they still like Mitt Romney? Are they intrigued by Fred Thompson? As always, voter uncertainty comes with the Jan. 3 caucuses, now just a week away.
Huckabee, the former Baptist minister, is leading in the Republican polls here, though his advantage has narrowed. Perhaps, that’s due in part to the negative TV commercials Romney is airing.
“I think I’m leaning toward Governor Huckabee,” says Lori Brown, who works at an accounting firm in Sheldon. “I guess I’m not sure who else I really like. But he seems to be just a real guy. I’m a Christian, too, so I see eye-to-eye with him.
“At this point.”
According to the AP, Huckabee was a big hit on his final campaign swing through Iowa — in terms of many finding him “funny and charming, especially when he borrowed a bass guitar to play “Takin’ Care of Business” in the Sioux City High School auditorium.” Connecting with voters is an important political skill, and Huckabee seems to have it.
But the article also makes it clear Huckabee is having to spend a lot of time responding to criticisms from former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney who is spending lots of money on his own ads, his organization and going after Huckabee on issues such as the Arkansas Governor’s immigration record.
So Huckabee and Romney are battling in the trenches as Jan. 3 approaches.
Meanwhile, actor and former Senator Fred Thompson is still trying to find a deep trench:
Thompson, the “Law & Order” actor and former Tennessee senator, has the most ground to cover because of his late, sluggish entry to the race.
He brought a campaign bus to Iowa for the final two weeks of the campaign, with a short break for Christmas, but he hasn’t spent as much time as Romney or Huckabee in a state where, because of its first-in-the-nation caucuses, voters insist on face time with the candidates.
If people could see him, “I think they would follow right along with him,” says Bob Knowler, the county treasurer in Woodbury County, which includes Sioux City.
Good journalism gives good, solid anecdotal evidence of trends…and the AP gives plenty of it here. But the bottom line is that Thompson miscalculated in entering the race so late — losing his moment when there almost seemed a genuine draft starting among conservatives.
Thompson was the flavor of the month but suddenly a newer flavor (Huckabee) with a longer expiration date (Huckabee is a young 52 and Thompson is a…. “rugged”.. 65) is now on the scene. And on most issues Huckabee is seemingly offering offers voters much of what Thompson would have offered them in terms of political positions (there are some differences).
One thing that various press reports suggest is that Huckabee has a quality that could help shove him to the front-lines of the GOP race. It’s a quality that probably wouldn’t be enough to win him the nomination if conservatives and the GOP establishment go after him (he already has raised the ire of Rush Limbaugh whose positions more often than not do mirror the party establishment elite..): his humor.
Huckabee also seems nice, so nice that people often don’t notice a zinger. Instead of talking about Romney’s privileged upbringing, he says: “You know, growing up a Huckabee didn’t exactly open up all the doors for me as a kid,” he said in Sheldon, describing his hardscrabble upbringing. “It wasn’t like, `Oh, are you of the Huckabees of Hempstead County?’”
FOOTNOTE: Whoever wins Iowa is NOT ensured future victories, particularly this year.
But if Romney loses in Iowa, it will be a huge blow.
If Huckabee wins it’ll be a huge boost.
And if Thompson wins it’ll be a huge surprise.
UPDATE: More bad news for Mitt Romney. Another newspaper in New Hampshire (which votes soon after Iowa) has blasted him…this time the Union Leader. Here’s part of it:
THERE IS A reason Mitt Romney has not received a single newspaper endorsement in New Hampshire. It’s the same reason his poll numbers are dropping. He has not been able to convince the people of this state that he’s the conservative he says he is.
Like a lot of people in New Hampshire, we wanted to believe Romney. We gave him the benefit of the doubt. We listened very carefully to his expertly rehearsed sales pitch. But in the end he didn’t close the deal for us. Now, two weeks before the primary, the same is happening with voters.
Republicans and right-leaning independents in New Hampshire gave Romney a chance. His events have not been sparsely attended. Nor have they been scarce. He’s made more campaign stops here this year than any other Republican, even John McCain.
And after a year of comparing Romney to McCain, of sizing up the two in person and in the media, Granite Staters are turning back to McCain. The former Navy pilot, once written off by the national media establishment, is now in a statistical dead heat with Romney here.
How could that be? Romney has all the advantages: money, organization, geographic proximity, statesman-like hair, etc.
But he lacks something John McCain has in spades: conviction.
SOME OTHER WEBLOG REACTION:
–The Glittering Eye has a MUST READ analysis of the primaries giving various scenarios.
–The Heretik as usual has a great original graphic and a short but pointed post. The key quote:
It’s not just Romney’s hair that is slick here.
Between these two candidates I’ll take the competence of Romney over the overt religiosity of Huckabee. Unlike Huckabee, Romney can close a deal.
–Political Machine points to Romney’s latest bad review from a major New Hampshire newspaper editorial page:
Last week I wrote about the Concord Monitor’s anti-endorsement of Mitt Romney. That was brushed aside by Romney and his supporters as nothing more than a “liberal” newspaper doing what liberal newspapers do: bash conservative candidates. Well, today we have the not-so-liberal Manchester Union Leader offering an editorial strikingly similar in tone to that of the Monitor’s.
…Rough stuff. And if you think that crying “liberal” will help Romney this time, have a gander at the Union Leader’s official endorsement of McCain. This is clearly no college town alternative weekly.
And, indeed, if you’re a political junkie you know that newspapers often endorse one candidate and “diss” another. But in this instance Romney seems to have aroused near outrage on the part of editorial board members on all sides of the political spectrum.
