Comments on: Dump New Conventional Wisdom: Poll Gives Clinton Big Lead In Iowa

By: DLS

DLS — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 20:49:34 +0000

try it again, Wordpress -- this news story.

By: DLS

DLS — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 20:48:40 +0000

Let’s ask all the clients about

By: DLS

DLS — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 19:44:15 +0000

It is so perfect, white woman vs black man-every liberals dream.

Wait until Hillary Clinton (more likely) brings out the “victim” BS once she is criticized, as well as “vote for me because I am” and “they are against me because I am” “a woman.” (child’s cut-and-paste-level approach works wonders for the target group).

Will Obama be put into the VP slot? That’s what Edwards is for (unless one of the older guys is chosen instead).

By: DLS

DLS — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 16:29:05 +0000

Both fields (though the Dem field is stronger, with more sharply identifiable voter preferences) this time illustrate why the best way to vote for a single-person office is the approval vote. What the first reply here by [A]isle mentioned brings this to light: If no majority could agree on a first choice, but a majority, and better, a supermajority (say 60-70 per cent if not higher) could agree on a second choice, obviously the second choice is the most deserving overall.

Okay, you may now return from a higher plane to the more mundane reality of the plurality vote.

* * *

…[T]hese polls [nearly hourly now, often more breathlessly reported than ever] are just more noise.

Yes, they are.

February 5th’s results remain the big news. Post-Iowa and post-New Hampshire are worthy of time and trouble (particularly the differences in the two sets of results), but the main thing is we cannot truly predict what will happen. Anyone who can, set your sights on Wall Street instead and we’ll be happy to hire you to make us wealthy.

By: The Talking Dog

The Talking Dog — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 05:58:35 +0000

I was just going over my archives from four years ago; the movement that took place in the last three or four days was unbelievable… Kerry was as good as dead ten days before winning the damned thing,

We may see the same thing again, in which case, these polls are just more noise. Or, maybe this is a real trend… Hillary is certainly the choice of Establishment Dems, and that won’t hurt in a system where only around 120,000 voters decide everything.

Also, Edwards and Obama are operating with their own organizations in all 99 IA counties… Hillary really isn’t (relying heavily on the Establishment…)
Under Iowa’s strange system, a caucus of the minimum 25 people can have the same pull as one of a thousand or two…

Anyway… the movement in the next week will doubtless be substantial… and the weather on January 3rd will probably easier to predict than the caucus results.

By: dwolf

dwolf — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 04:47:25 +0000

This is the exact scenario the Clinton people wanted and planned. Hillary could not be seen as the anointed nominee and needed a “struggle” and so a faux fight with Obama is perfect. Does anyone seriously think Obama is ready to be President? It is so perfect, white woman vs black man-every liberals dream. This is 1992 redux-the comback kid etc. And, it will work

By: Elrod

Elrod — Tue, 25 Dec 2007 17:32:14 +0000

It’s ARG. Take them with a HUGE grain of salt. They always pick up higher support for Clinton and McCain than any other poll. You really believe, for example, that Fred Thompson has fallen to 3 percent in Iowa? Fred may be sleepy, but he’s been working Iowa pretty hard the last week or so. I wouldn’t be surprised if Thompson finishes third in Iowa.

Now if other polling backs this then I’ll believe it. But ARG alone is useless.

By: Joe Gandelman

Joe Gandelman — Tue, 25 Dec 2007 14:06:11 +0000

Quite a good point!

By: aisle

aisle — Tue, 25 Dec 2007 13:43:24 +0000

Conventional wisdom is that the 2nd choice for supporters of "non-viable" candidates (~<15% support) will determine the Democratic winner in Iowa. Pollsters don't seem to want to factor this complication into their polling and analysis.