You mentioned that Dems in the 2004 primary decided to back Kerry after his unexpected win in Iowa and they did so because they felt that Bush had stolen the 2000 election and they wanted to unite behind a candidate.

I’m not sure the same dynamic will hold this time- everyone believes (at this time) that the Republicans are out this cycle so the Dems may take their time to select the right candidate. So even if Obama wins both NH and Iowa (and I’m a huge supporter of Obama’s) I’m not convinced he will be the presumptive nominee. And as others said in their postings here, HIllary won’t give-up the nomination without a fight. She has the determination, energy, money and baking to fight tooth and nail for the nomination, especially if she views this as her last chance of becoming the President. If a Dem won this time, she’d have to wait another eight years for her chance- and then she may be too old to run.

As far as the Republican nominee- I still think it will be McCain. He’s letting the current front runners duke it out while he tries to stay above the fray. A couple debates ago he was on point about the US practicing torture- his message was simple and he won (against Romney) that particular argument. He has good war credentials and the social conservatives would back him over Mitt and Rudy any time. I’ve said this before but… McCain knows he just has to hang in there, not wipe out and he has a real good chance of becoming the Republican nominee.

As far as Huckabee- I pretty much agree with you, Mark D. He may win in Iowa, but that doesn’t mean he will win in NH. Besides Huckabee scares enough Americans that he doesn’t stand a chance to win the general election over a Dem. nominee. But then again the 2004 Democratic dynamic- let’s pull around the early winner to beat the Republicans- may go to work this time on the Republican side. The restive Republicans (eager to choose someone to beat a Dem) may decide to rally around Huckabee because of his early win in Iowa. Huckabee just may gain momentum from there.

I still think McCain will be the eventual Rep. nominee.

Floor yielded.

I don’t know where Clinton’s campaign HQ is here and I don’t care.

Iowa by no means defines everything, yet tells a large story insofar as how much Huckabee might not only appeal to the Religious Right, but to others who are not “social conservatives” but prefer someone who seems more real and decent than Giuliani or Romney.

I don’t understand how anybody could like McCain, but he’s rising in New Hampshire and may win there — so there you go; he still has support in this country. Yes, he may defeat Romney in New Hampshire.

The youth support for Obama is obvious here in Iowa and I may go visit his campaign HQ here in town after I get off this site, to look for more stuff to read and send to my radical friend in DC. I just wrote to her that he does not seem to be a fluke any more, but in fact a class act (the Christmas ad from him and his family I saw yesterday came across to me that way, at least). I also got to remind her just now that the guy was rated by at least one organization as having a record farther left than that of Dennis Kucinich, someone she always has liked, so lefties can rejoice even if Obama beats Clinton.

I don’t fear Obama in the White House; to me he may be fully predictable, a traditional Democratic (Dinosaur) old central-city area (Chicago) Democrat. At any rate, I wouldn’t mind seeing him beat her here in Iowa in a couple of weeks. (At least Obama can get the date correct in his campaign’s literature, unlike Clinton. hahahahaha)

I don’t think that Clinton will step aside either. But I think she’s likely to be pushed aside if party regulars and voters see Obama turn things around in Iowa and then in New Hampshire.

Mark

The Republicans – what a great show for junkies this year! It’s all popcorn and Coke, all the time! Sure, ’00 was a moderately interesting year, what with McCain sneaking past The Chosen One early on. But it ended the way it was originally scripted, of course, as do most Republican primary “contests.”

This year though, I’m thinking chaos has overcome the apparatchiks’ control. The rise of Huckabee is certainly most delicious, as is Giuliani’s complete inability to ID with actual primary voters. And sweet Jesus, Romney’s a Mormon! Great White Hope Thompson is the dud that landed with a thud. Could John McCain, the Most Hated Man in the Republican Party (at least to the base) be the last guy standing? Oh the gnashing of teeth! Oh, the rending of cloth and wailing! What a corner the Party of God, Guns ‘n Gays has painted itself into.

Personally, I’m hoping for a ’68 Dem-style convention meltdown for the GOP this year. Something truly memorable for the ages. It would restore some of my faith in my countrymen, and at least offer the possibility of beginning the road back to global leadership that we have so willingly pissed away these last 7 years.