Poll Says Clinton Suddenly Regains Big Lead In New Hampshire
The political poll see-saw in this topsy turvy election year continues — this time with the latest poll out of New Hampshire. — which is good news for New York Senator Hillary Clinton.
The big news dominating media (and blog) coverage has been from Iowa, where the latest in a series of see-saw polls has former Senator John Edwards ahead on the Democratic side, and Governor Mike Huckabee surging (to the horror of the GOP establishment) on the GOP side. And in New Hampshire? Iowa schmiowa:
Hillary Clinton appears to have recaptured the lead among Democratic candidates in New Hampshire, according to results of a new CNN/WMUR poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire.
Clinton was virtually tied with Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in last week’s New Hampshire poll, along with several other recent surveys.
But in the Wednesday poll, the New York senator now has a 12-point lead over Obama — 38 percent to 26 percent.
What could be going on?
Despite political analysis that make sense and polls that have shown her in trouble, could Ms. Clinton have turned a corner and started to convince Demmies that she is their best shot at regaining the White House? Or is it a manifestation of the Clinton camp’s organizational prowess which can even be seen in Iowa in the Senator’s smart selection of a coordinator?
If Edwards does win in Iowa, will Big Mo propel him to do better in New Hampshire? Or will — given how down in this most recent New Hampshire poll Edwards is — will Big Mo prove to be Big Schmoe?
Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is in third place with 14 percent, with the remaining Democratic hopefuls in single digits, according to the poll.
Clinton gained some 7 percentage points over last week’s poll, with Obama losing 4 percentage points.
This suggests what some other news articles have suggested: Obama may have “peaked.” If so, has he peaked too soon?
Nearly all of Clinton’s gains come among older voters. She also is ranked higher than Obama on every issue tested, with health care and the economy her strongest suits,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
On the Republican side, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is in first place for the Granite State’s GOP voters, with 34 percent. Arizona Sen. John McCain has 22 percent, and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has 16 percent. Since last week’s poll, McCain has gained 3 percentage points and Giuliani has slipped the same amount.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is in fourth place with 10 percent. The remaining Republican candidates are in single digits.
What does this suggest?
It suggests that if Iowa plays out the way polls are showing you could have one set of winners there and one set of winners in New Hampshire….in both parties. And the races will be more unsettled than ever.
The guy to watch: News stories have noted that New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg — the latest politico to do a Hamlet/Mario Cuomo/Fred Thompson imitation and rule out running but not really rule it out — had said that he would not run unless certain conditions were ripe for him to run. If the races look unsettled or there are high negatives among the likely nominees, it would not be surprising to hear that Bloomberg is going to enter the race. News stories are already surfacing suggesting that he’s already thinking about it and even taking the first steps to assemble a team.
5 Responses to “Poll Says Clinton Suddenly Regains Big Lead In New Hampshire”
Wow. I’m shocked, shocked I tell you, that Senator Clinton is ahead in a CNN poll.
You’ll have to forgive my skepticism here, but when half a dozen polls tell you half a dozen different things about who’s in first, it’s tough to take any of them seriously. Least of all a poll taken by a “news” company that shows as much favoritism for Clinton as Fox does for GWB.
CNN = Clinton News Network, Clearly Not Neutral
There’s no need for hyperventilating and micro-analyzing every hour of the (Democratic) campaigns; just wait until after elections actually begin, and particularly until after February 5th.
[...] afford to come in third. Hillary has just regained a significant lead in New Hampshire (H/T: The Moderate Voice), and if Clinton placed third in Iowa that lead would likely evaporate as New Hampshire voters [...]
The one good piece of news that is substantial at this time is the fall of Giuliani (which many of us don’t regret). He isn’t even bothering to spend a respectable amount of time here in Iowa, but is sitting down in Florida — and Huckabee is doing well against him there, too! Giuliani’s fall has to be good news for the Democratic candidates and to Democratic voters. Note also Huckabee’s rise nationally, not only in Iowa.
I’m surprised all the liberals here on this “moderate” [sic] site haven’t taken time out from their hyper-analysis of the hourly state of Democratic candidates to view their opposition. (Tunnel vision…) There’s information on the Dems in this report, too.
From the latest poll showing a wide-open GOP field and Giuliani no longer a strong leader:
[...] it can’t afford to come in third. Hillary has just regained a significant lead in New Hampshire (The Moderate Voice), and if Clinton placed third in Iowa that lead would likely evaporate as New Hampshire voters [...]