Surprises Still Occurring In Campaign 2008
As you look at the political landscape, you now see a big question mark: so what will happen NEXT?
At a seemingly-breakneck pace, Campaign 2008 is shaping up as a campaign of surprises that quickly make the conventional wisdom outdated.
Who would have ever thought that New York Senator Hillary Clinton’s once seamless and seemingly unstoppable campaign would suddenly need a professional seamstress (or two)?
Who would have ever thought that Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee would be the guy who came from behind in the GOP as former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s polls slowly decline and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (who should be a Republican dream candidate) is hamstrung by anti-Mormon sentiment within the GOP?
And brace yourself because some new developments suggest some more surprises could be down the pike. To wit:
#1 Senator John Edwards was a huge hit in CNN and Fox focus groups in yesterday’s debate according to Talking Points Memo Election Central.
Up until now, Edwards’ 2008 role seemed to be shaping up as the “also ran” — a perpetual second tier candidate who looks great on paper, is photogenic but failed to live up to expectations in 2004 (particularly in his debate with GOPer Dick Cheney). Perhaps he is now scoring because he has had years to fine-tune his pitch. Or, perhaps he is coming across as simply more passionate than the two perceived Democratic front-runners New York Senator Hillary Clinton and Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Or perhaps it’s because, as the L.A. Time’s blog notes, Edwards is making it clear where he stands and not hedging on his key campaign theme:
John Edwards no doubt benefited in today’s debate from being next to last among the six Democratic presidential candidates present in answering what, if elected, he would aim to accomplish in year one. Still, when he got his chance, the son of a mill worker used it to drive home the unvarnished populism that has defined his second White House run.
…..Of late, he’s been delivering that class manifesto with less anger than previously. But win or lose, Edwards cannot be accused of mincing his words. And somewhere, the ghost of William Jennings Bryan must be smiling.
MSNBC, focusing on Edwards’ unswerving adherence to his theme, counted the number of times he mentioned the word “corporate” (as in, “corporate power” or “corporate greed”). The result: 13
But could he prove a bigger player in the vote than many now think? And, if so, does he have a chance of winning some big ones? If not, who would he hurt more when voters vote for him rather than Clinton or Obama?
What seems clear is that while Clinton and Obama work to knock each other out and not lose existing support, Edwards is constantly hammering home his campaign theme. Is it too late to make a difference? In the end Edwards may not get the nomination — but one Republican strategist says Edwards is the candidate that he would fear the most.
#2 There’s yet ANOTHER REPORT that says New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is seriously considering jumping into the Presidential race. The Wall Street Journal reports that Bloomberg’s buds say he’s still considering running despite all the denials — and that developments make it more likely that he will run.
At this point, journalists should have two “evergreen” stories to save and run: Bloomberg is running and Bloomberg isn’t running. And if he does want to run, is he falling into the same trap of former New York Governor Mario Cuomo and actor and former Senator Fred Thompson, whose Hamlet imitations went on so long they missed the call of political history — and lost their big moment?
Some pooh-pooh the idea of a Bloomberg run as having little impact…but if he runs he will get lots of initial media attention (sucking up the media air that other candidates need) and will have to take votes away from someone.
Meanwhile, there is the ultimate wild card: external events. Something unforeseen by commentators, politicos and policy makers could happen that changes the political dynamics or the issues confronting the country.
Stay tuned. This could be a year when you not only need to buckle your seat belt, but you need to make sure you have an air bag ready…
7 Responses to “Surprises Still Occurring In Campaign 2008”
this is the time of most campaign seasons when the political writers express their boredom by writing about possible brokered conventions, third party runs, and how second tier candidates can make a come make.
What most of them are really doing is avoiding the obvious that none of the Republicans stand any realistic chance of winning, the primary season will be over by February 5, and writing about the more important issue of Senate elections seems to be beyond the abilities of most political pundits.
What they should be writing about is what will a Clinton (or possibly an Obama) administration be like. Who will be the Sec. of State and Attorney General for each of them?
Those buds are probably members of the Editorial Board at the WSJ
1. The voting hasn’t even started yet, and y’all are going ballistic weeks before, seizing on every new instant with less than a toddler-or-MTV-or-YouTube attention span? C’mon, children, calm down and be patient.
2. Bloomberg’s junk gun lawsuits disqualify him from the Presidency — in that sense he’s worse than Giuliani. Same goes for any other old-city official. (Is that why he has fans, because he engages in such poor conduct? What does that say about his fans?)
Huckabee’s rise in Iowa is due to the presence here of a lot of Religious Right people (as is so often the case, privately religious, but driven to the Right by default because of what the Left has been doing), and social conservatives. It would be nice if “Huck” rose in the standings after Iowa, but the odds are much greater against that happening than against someone else taking the Democratic nomination from Clinton.
Were Huckabee to be better recognized, and to rise in the standings nation-wide, the media would go into Dem-defense attack-the-GOP mode, made more vicious with the predictable venom against the religious (and to a lesser extent, the socially conservative, i.e., mainstream, decent people).
We know Huckabee will truly have become more important, and deserving of the Presidency, if the liberal media begin to attack him in earnest.
Question the Candidates – Made in the USA?
In the presidential campaign you hear every candidate speak about American workers, American jobs going overseas, and U.S. trade policies.
So my first question is “who to believe”? I think a good place to start is find out what the candidates sell for gear. Most (but not all) candidate’s websites have an online store to buy “goodies”.
I checked 15 online candidates stores on December 14, 2007 and here are the results:
sorry gang…..first post
As a New York resident, I can say that Bloomberg has been an excellent mayor. As a professional, I have respect for him as a self-made entrepreneurial billionaire. As a Tennessean by birth who just returned from a trip back home, I can tell you, outside of the New York City an the media world, nobody knows who he is. I don’t mean backwoods hillbillies (though they vote too). I mean, well educated urban professionals in the South. I was amazed that he had almost zero name recognition. Sure, he’s been on a few national magazine covers now, and his Bloomberg service is well known in the financial industry, but anecdotally I found him to be much less know outside of New York than I expected (such as, “Oh? He was that short old guy on the cover with Schwarzenegger? I saw that. That’s what that was all about?”).
A billion dollar campaign can change that quickly. However, outside of New York and the media world, I don’t believe he has the kind of problem with a “Hamlet imitation” that you perceive in comparing him to Cuomo and Thompson. To most people who live outside the echo-chamber, he will be a brand new face that almost nobody has heard of.
I do agree, this is going to be a buckle your seatbelt presidential race.