American Report a ‘Turning Point in the War on Terror’

Rather than an attempt by U.S. intelligence to undermine President Bush’s plans to attack Iran, could it be that the NIE released last week, which said that Iran has mothballed its nuclear weapons program, be part of the President’s policy to assist Iranian moderates? According to this article by French historian Alexandre Adler, this report hints at a new U.S. strategy that marks a turning point in the war on terror.

“The assumption of a Soviet-style CIA coup against George Bush, with the goal of disarming the hawks from now until the end of the President’s mandate, is unacceptable.”

By Alexandre Adler

Translated By James Jacobson

November 9, 2007

France – Le Figaro – Original Article (French)

The announcement U.S. intelligence that Iran is not – strictly speaking – on the point of manufacturing an atomic bomb , and that it lacks the technical capacity to obtain one until about 2010 or even 2015, is undoubtedly the most important turning point of war against terror that began around the year 2000. This decision by Iran is as clear as it is obscure, which is doubtless the reason that some in the press and a good portion of international political analysts remain reticent to grapple with its full significance. It is nevertheless completely clear that in agreeing to give this estimate a solemn and public airing, President Bush is now committed until the end of his mandate not to intervene militarily in Iran. This will be a shame for all the pen-pushers whose work predicted a new Iranian-American war, which will now wilt on bookshop shelves.

But there’s still more in the message that U.S. intelligence has sent to global opinion – as well as to the Iranian leadership: Between the lines one can also read the outlines of negotiations to come – and even a trace of a negotiation that may already have begun – which if true, would be considerably more sensational. If the reader would allow me a personal confession, I will gladly recount that a good year before the election of Ahmadinejad to the presidency of Iran, I suggested to high-level Iranian negotiators the “Japanese solution,” to which they expressed great interest. I was alluding to the fact that Japan already has on hand all the components for a nuclear weapon, but which it refuses to assemble, considering that it already has a strong deterrent with the parts disassembled.

So I was not surprised to read three weeks later in The Economist that “certain Iranian officials referred to a compromise called the Japanese solution” … and it is this concept that the pens of CIA analysts refer to, when they refer to a difference between the fabrication of a nuclear explosive – which Iran has not pursued since 2003 – and the manufacture of nuclear fuel, which Iran has pursued imperturbably since the end of a freeze on uranium enrichment at Natanz . No one can ignore the fact that if Iran can produce enriched uranium – but deliberately produce less than is needed to build a Bomb – the essential point is that it is continuing to master uranium production, and at any time it could push the button and effortlessly proceed to obtain The Bomb.

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