Poll: Romney Up 7 Points Over Obama
As CBS News notes, Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s first debate “bounce” seems to be continuing:
The latest national poll shows Mitt Romney with the largest lead over President Obama this campaign based on Gallup’s polling. In Gallup’s Daily Tracking poll out Thursday, Romney leads the president by 7 points, with Romney obtaining 52 percent support of likely voters to Mr. Obama’s 45 percent.
The results continue the latest trend shown in Gallup’s polling – Romney gaining an advantage in a race that has been consistently close. Just four days ago the same poll showed Romney leading by just 2 points, which is within the margin of error.The tracking poll obtains its average through interviews with 2,700 people over seven days. All of the respondents were asked after the first presidential debate, where, by most accounts, the president performed poorly, but only some were interviewed after the second debate where Mr. Obama had a much stronger showing.
While the latest Gallup poll shows a positive trend for Romney, a separate Gallup Poll reveals that the president’s job approval rating is not suffering.
Another poll suggests some movement Obama’s way:
Today PPP is releasing the first results from the daily tracking poll it will be running for the rest of the election, sponsored by Americans United for Change. It will be based on a three day rolling average, with 400 interviews conducted each day.
Based on interviews completed between Monday and Wednesday Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are all tied up at 48%. This represents some improvement for Obama compared to PPP’s last national survey, conducted last weekend for Daily Kos and SEIU, which found Romney up 50/46.
Obama is up 51/45 with women, 62/34 with Hispanics, 87/8 with African Americans, and 57/38 with young voters. Romney is ahead 50/45 with men, 46/41 with independents, 58/38 with whites, and 53/43 with seniors.
Voters narrowly disapprove of Obama’s job performance, with 46% of voters giving him good marks to 50% unhappy with how he’s doing. That’s actually up a little bit from a 44/53 spread over the weekend though. Americans are split right down the middle in their assessments of Romney- 47% see him favorably and 47% unfavorably. That’s down from a 49/45 spread on last weekend’s survey.
Good news for Romney in poll averages:
Pollster.com
Real Clear Politics:
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Obama is holding his states and it looks like he is gaining in swing states in the west. I haven’t seen a Florida poll in a while.
Wow, Romney’s up for the first time in the latest RCP electoral map also: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
I still think Obama has the advantage right now though, since he’s still slightly leading in most of the toss ups, assuming he can stop the bleeding.
I predicted before the 2008 election that Romney would win in 2012 (though I can’t find the reference now). I’ll stick with that prediction only because the upside of being right that far back outweighs the downside. We’ll see.
I notice that Nate Silver comments that the further out of line with other polls in any direction the Gallup national polls are the more likely they are to be inaccurate. This doesn’t mean that Romney isn’t leading at this point, but that it might not be as much as these results indicate.
I don’t care what the polls say I don’t think it will be that close. If you look at odds bookies are giving, people with real money money at stake, Obama still leads comfortably. Obama is still ahead and always has been. I’m not sure what’s driving the poll results. There seems to be a lack of enthusiasm for both candidates. Something is not right somewhere. If the election results deviate substantially from the polls there will be an explanation after the fact.
What Jim said. Nate Silver doesn’t seem to be impressed with Gallup.
Apparently young people are less enthusiastic about Obama this time around. I think thier expectations were unrealistic. This is the “no waiting” generation afterall. Less understandable is why women would have any interest in moving toward Romney. It makes zero sense. In both cases they are moving against their own interests. How do you convince people they are heading for a mistake? It seems to require an almost ridiculous amount of evidence these days.
Btw, Nate Silver is giving Obama a 65% chance of winning at this point. I think Romney would kill to have that number.
One thing for sure, whoever wins the other side will scream fraud (or at least some on the other side)
It will be interesting to see what happens to the polls when the Mitt debacle debate is factored in.
It’ll be a day or two yet to see if the debate changed anything, how many of these are post 2nd debate?
While taking the average of different pollsters is beneficial in muting the effects of outlier polls, it comes at the cost of also muting current movements that may be valid. Nate Silver’s prediction model shares this attribute. The best way is to watch the movement in a single pollster, which is why the campaigns hire their own pollsters. The 538 model still has Colorado in the blue count, for example. The most current evidence would suggest that is overstating Obama’s probability. When sentiments are morphing within this active debate period, any poll or average of last 5 can become outdated quickly.
Intrade would have more predictive validity if it hadn’t become popular for short duration plays, meaning contracts are no longer solely bought for maturity outcomes, but rather for timing plays on movements for daily stories. That activity tends to reinforce contract prices right where they sit give or take a point or two
It looks like Iowa is swinging back towards Obama. Ohio is stable, but I thought it would move more towards Obama…it will be interesting to watch. Florida…no news, very odd. Mi and Wis are solid Obama. NC is solid Romney, I suspect Virginia also.
Oh Florida… so little we know of your mysterious ways. Although it may not matter if Romney cant move the west midwest states. It sucks to be so reliant on the southern states.
Casualobserver is right…the different timing of the polls means that the averages are skewed by the lag effects. We’re seeing averages of the current information lumped with the data from several weeks ago in many cases. It would be very helpful if they could correct for that somehow.
I’m more impressed by the information from early voter polls which show big differences. Some pollsters say Dems are more likely to vote early and Reps on election day, and that may be part of the 75/25 Dem lead. But if those numbers hold through election day, which is unlikely, this could be a Dem. tsunami.
All the pollsters seem to be talking now about Dems winning electoral and Reps winning the popular vote. I guess I’d just turn off the TV for about a year if that happens. I can’t stand whining.
The averages are worthless at this stage of the process, imho, particularly when you have major debates occurring during the polling itself. RCP averages are goofy in general…I dont even look at them anymore.
You really need to drill down and look at each poll in each state and watch those trends. The pros drill down deeper and evaluate the questions themselves, but I aint got time for that.
Ain’t it the truth! It’s really the only state that worries me on a regular basis. That said, I like visiting there. Go figure…
TO, the only people that will be crying about winning the pop vote but losing the elect vote will be Fox News. GWB did the same thing and he had no problem. Of course, the TP did not exist back then, so who knows what crazy stuff could be made up.
“Obama shipped in his fellow tribesmen from Kenya to vote in Ohio.”
stuff like that.
Hmm Virginia poll finally out… Ras has Romney +3. I have a feeling the next couple of polls will have Romney at +1, tie. The good news for Romney is that the polls was taken yesterday. I still think Romney will take the states.
Florida? why is everyone avoiding Florida?
The last Florida poll was by Gravis on the 14th, total joke so you have to toss those numbers out. PPP was before that with Romney +1, which is probably a RL +2 or 3.
Hmm.. did manage to find a Zogby poll on Kos… Obama +4, but I have no faith in those numbers.
“Florida? why is everyone avoiding Florida?”
Well, Florida is easily one of the most difficult states to poll. Since you are a poll guy, take a look at the internals…….how good do you feel about any poll that results in a 91% non-response rate…….do you think you are really feeling the pulse of the citizenry when you only get to talk to 1 out of ten people you call? (Who are those idiots taking phone calls from unidentified numbers anyway?) Party ID weighting…….latest voter registrations are D-4.5M, R-4.1M and I-2.6M. Therefore, up to a D+3 or 4 oversample is legitimate based on registrations, but even in 2008 turnout was more like only D+2.5……and is Obama going to repeat his 2008 turnout?
One of the drivers of the high non-response rate is many of us maintain Florida as our state of residence (i.e., no state income tax), but live here only enough to document the residence claim as believable. In mycase, I have already voted “in Florida” but actually have not been there since June. Permanent absentee ballot status was a wonderful invention.
Good points CO, but I would hope that pollsters would still be trying to put something out.
I really don’t get the absence of a legit Florida poll. It’s value is another matter.
Doh, Ras has Florida +5 Romney. Real life +3
More polls. Romney has Florida by a solid 3. I don’t see it budging…unless Romney blows the last debate.