National Intelligence Estimate on Iran: Newt Gingrich Dissembles on Nukes
Norman Podhoretz, John Bolton and Newt Gingrich are leading the charge in asserting that the National Intelligence Estimate that concludes Iran dismantled its nuclear weapons program in 2003 is misleading and damaging to the national interest. The report sure was a shocker, but do these most serious charges hold water?
Neocon pilgrim and Rudy Giuliani foreign policy advisor Podhoretz and former U.N. ambassador Bolton are horse’s backsides of the first water, so we’ll put their yammering aside. But Republican conservative political guru Gingrich, who is nobody’s fool but occasionally his own, is usually worth listening to.
This is what Gingrich had to say on ABC’s This Week about the report:
“What you have is a release which, first of all, could not have been written to be more damaging to the Bush administration than it was. And the three people who wrote it are all three former State Department employees . . . they’re all three people who dislike what Bush is doing. I think they deliberately undermined the administration. I think this is the equivalent of a coup d’etat by the bureaucracy. If you actually read what they said . . . even the unclassified version doesn’t say what the front, what the headline said. The unclassified version says that there’s a big civilian program, they have at least 3,000 centrifuges already working — and 3,000′s enough to produce one bomb a year. They have a clear commitment to get nuclear weapons; there’s no evidence they’re going to give up that commitment. What the report technically said was that there was one particular program that was secret that we were certain was ongoing, we’ve now had a defector, that’s my guess, and the defector’s told them this, and my question is: How do we know that defector’s not a plant?”
Let’s break down these thoughts point by point.
* The estimate could not have been more damaging to the Bush administration and was intentionally so.
It is difficult to believe that there has not been more squawking, including the usual well-placed leaks from inside the White House, if this charge had real merit. Besides which, it’s yet another example of conservatives staking out a policy position and then automatically disagreeing with, ignoring or hiding anything that goes against that policy, which has been a signature of the Bush administration.
* Iran still has a big civilian nuclear program capable of producing a bomb a year.
No argument here. But we are led to believe by administration insiders that release of the NIE was held up because skeptics insisted that fresh evidence that the weapons program had indeed been dismantled — if not merely put on hold – be obtained. It was and confirmed the original assessment.
* How do we know that Gingrich’s alleged defector is not a plant?
We certainly don’t know that. But it beggars belief that an estimate based on the work of the CIA, DIA, FBI and NSA, among other agencies known for their independence and readiness to fight turf battles, came down to the say of one defector/plant and not the unanimous judgment of all those agencies based on multiple sources.
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19 Responses to “National Intelligence Estimate on Iran: Newt Gingrich Dissembles on Nukes”
*”The estimate could not have been more damaging to the Bush administration and was intentionally so.”
That says it all.
What he’s saying is that intelligence should not rely on facts and findings but should be shaped so as to fit in with the administration’s plans.
The ‘intentionally so’ part is a wild accusation on a par with 9/11 conspiracy theories.
This will play nicely abroad as prrof postitive that the Iraq intel was cooked.
Doesn’t this gang realize they are destroying what credibiliy the Us has left?
As it is, the NIE release was a sign that the US was honest and would release informaiton regardless of political cost.
If Gingrich and gang prevail, who would ever believe the US about anything ever again?
No matter their level of sincerity, this is an incredibly dumb move. It would be an incredibly dumb move even if they were right.
Are they really so isolated in their own bubble that they have no idea how messages are received outside of that bubble?
Okay folks take a breath.
We invaded Iraq largely on the say of defectors who claimed that Iraq had a WMD’s stash that would make the west envious.
These are legitimate questions to ask. If our intelligence agency says anything with certainty then that makes me pretty skeptical.
The left was wanting to fry the right for relying on defectors with an agenda. Now that the left has a potential defector to support their agenda they want to hold him up to the heavens and shout hallelujah.
Questions about something as important as this are merited. I personally hope its true because I do not want nor have I ever believed we were going to do anything other then bluster and twist the worlds arm to force Iran to stop its weapons program.
But lost in all this is this release……a bombshell in its own right combined with the release of the fact that the CIA destroyed those tapes. I sense a huge Arse covering move going on here. I suspect the tapes destruction are extremely annoying but no where so then an estimate that tells the left/antiwar…..hey we agree with you. Now suddenly that CIA deal is an annoyance and not a huge mouth frothing event.
I agree with Somebody on two points:
1) Questions about this are legitimate. The so-called Intelligence Community hasn’t covered itself in glory recently.
2) There is some obvious CYA going on.
On the other hand, Gingrich is shamelessly pandering to the base. The single-minded willingness of influential Republicans to tell their base exactly what will stroke their fears and predjudices is awesome.
Their message discipline is nothing short of amazing. It’s as destructive as ever, of course.
But still: awesome!!
Somebody-
Your comment is kind of hard to digest, after your hearfelt statemtent abou hatred elsewhere.
Making this about Right vs Left is about as divisive and hate enhancing as one can get. Your fantasies about the evil Left will not help in the coming years and months.
How about sparing a moment for just thinking about the best tactics going forward? If you’re not too busy bemoaning hatreds, that is.
I honestly don’t understand this:
“There is some obvious CYA [something] going on.” ”
The report is full of footnotes, explanations and different levels of certaintly. It does not come to a short version conclusion. It does not absolve Iran;, in fact, it makes a point of not doing so.
Given the nature of intel gathering, that’s what you’d expect an honest report to look like, full of uncertainties and ambiguities. Doing intel is not like solving 2+2=4.
As I understand it, the report was delayed because they went through the test of trying to disprove their own conclusions before releasing it.
What is the “obvious” basis for suspicion, aside from suspecting everything that doesn’t agree with preconceptions?
Doma
I know you dont like my message that the far left are loons filled with hate. The far right is too. They are whackos filled with nutty visions that make my skin creep.
Now fact number one. There is strong suspicions that a defector has provided this evidence. The right used defectors in their intell to invade Iraq. Conclusion the left is grasping at anything to continue with their message that the war is bad. That is not hate filled. Its simply hypocrisy.
Fact number two. Why is this happening? Why suddenly is this report released pandering to the antiwar left? At the same time the CIA tape destruction was released? CYA…..thats not hate…….thats a legitimate question by the right and something the left would like to ignore as they revel in their victory.
My post was not about hate at all. Perhaps in other places its a indictment of hate coming from the left but that is not so here. It is in indictment of the SPIN both sides put on anything to prove a point.
This is about spin. The NIE spun the truth to protect the CIA’s arse and lost in this Im convinced that it was an effort to give Bush a chance to back away from the war talk on Iran and save some semblence of faith with his loon right base.
YES……READ MY LIPS………I visit loon right blogs and those guys are insane. I just choose to come to a place where the loon left hangs out and try to point out the error of their ways because honestly at loon right sites……..MY LIFE HAS BEEN THREATENED……here I just get a few insults thrown at me.
When I am not here I am at the Loon right calling them on their idiocy. This far left vs far right mindless hatred has got to stop. That is my message……you only see one side of it because you do not visit the far right sites I do.
Somebody-
Oh, I get it.
When you say whatever you say, it’s not hate.
When someoen else (the Left) disagrees with you, it is.
BTW,
A statemtnent that includes the follosing: “Now fact number one. There is strong suspicions ….”
is totally lacking in logic. The ‘fact’ is a suspicion?
I have tried but have repeatedly failed to commucnicate with you.
I give up.
Okay Doma I understand. You are taking lessons from Cosmo and trying to define the argument.
A statemtnent that includes the follosing: “Now fact number one. There is strong suspicions ….”
is totally lacking in logic. The ‘fact’ is a suspicion?
The facts are there are strong suspicions that…………People are in FACT believing this is so. It is a fact……….It is a fact the far left SUSPECTS (Believes)BUSH tortured people………..is it not?
Oh, I get it.
When you say whatever you say, it’s not hate.
When someoen else (the Left) disagrees with you, it is.
No its anger. Not hate. Its anger that the far left is so consumed in hatred for the Religious right and Bush Bashing that they have stopped observing common decency.
If you look at my posts you will see that I quote you quite often because of all the far lefties here you are the ONE person that is trying to make it to the middle ground. It is why I quote you so often. I used to quote Kritter all the time because she had that sense of trying to strive for middle ground.
I am one of three or four conservatives in a sea of liberals here at TMV. I expect to be called on what I write…….but when I am……that means people are thinking about what I said. That is always the purpose of discourse.
Somebody-
Good-bye.
Be happy in your paralledl universe.
I’m not going there.
Somebody-
Good-bye.
Be happy in your paralledl universe.
I’m not going there.
Goodbye Doma. Enjoy La La Land.
slight hint of “compassionate conservatism” lurking deep within the man who can’t help but grin everytime he speaks of another American Citizen being put to death by the State.
Heres just a sample of adoration the left has for Bush. You can find it at the Gun Toting Liberal. Oh the love and compassion is just oozing here. Is it not.
“whole lot of things”? I can’t wait. A homophobe with a body count and a proven lack of good judgement with “a whole lot” of other “things” to be chased out of the closet, destined for a news outlet near you soon? What’s next? Toe-tapping with Larry Craig? Juicy emails to and from Mark Foley? A couple of secret visits to Ted Haggard? I’ve got to tell you; this guy fits the profile to a “T”, but you already KNEW that, didn’t you?
Heres a good one. The love. I can feel the love.
The fact is that the TMV is indeed moderate in its posting and its Commenting. This is one of the few places I have been able to comment without having my life threatened.
Deny if you want that the Hatefilled, venom spewing left is alive and well and I can take you to 10,000 left sites and prove you wrong.
The latest estimate is strange, and certainly those of us who know better won’t stop worrying about the Iranian threat (as well as the actions it commits).
I would say here, though, that it’s up to the critics to prove this new estimate was politically motivated.
To name just one thing current, the destruction of the torture tapes are more damaging to the Bush administration than this odd intelligence estimate.
One scene being put out is that human intell was the source of the radical NIE. Does anybody recall Ali Rez Asgari? The Dutch lad was “orgasmic” about his defection. Maybe an Iranian bird sang and the NIE parsed the song.
When did they last observe it? Not when Reagan was around, to name one piece of the past!
The real problem is that every agency has become so politicized that we no longer trust their output. That’s the result of the decision to invade Iraq based on cherry-picked intel and forged documents. Now every word that emanates from our intelligence agencies will be suspect. I guess I might believe that some at the CIA or State might be against the Bush agenda, but all 16 agencies are in agreement on this one.
Why is he out there? He’s not still considering a run, is he? (Democrats have their fingers crossed; who cares about Huckabee?)
Shaun,
Since when is “dismantled” a synonym for “halt?” The word “dismantle” does not exist in the NIE. It’s bad enough when someone like Juan Cole makes that same mistake (and worse – some of the stuff he’s said about the NIE cannot be honest mistakes), but please don’t fall into that trap.
The intel community judges with HIGH CONFIDENCE (as opposed to certainty) that Iran HALTED it’s weapons program – not dismantled – in 2003. The difference between “dismantled” and “halt” is immense and important. Also note that the “high confidence” applies to what happened in 2003, not what’s happening now as evidenced later in the document:
The IC judges with only MODERATE CONFIDENCE that Iran has not since restarted the program.
What does that mean? It means Iran halted weapons-related activity in 2003 but we don’t really have a good idea what’s happened recently and therefore the IC is only moderately confident the halt is still in place today.
As for politics and the NIE, this guy gets it.
Why is he out there? He’s not still considering a run, is he? (Democrats have their fingers crossed; who cares about Huckabee?)
No he’s not running, but that doesn’t mean he can stand to be out of the media spotlight for more than five minutes, either. He has a huge ego, and always thinks America needs his input on every issue.