The Beginning of the End for Chavez?
This week’s defeat of a government-backed constitutional referendum in Venezuela was a huge blow for Hugo Chavez. Since taking power in 1999, the Venezuelan president has historically received broad support for his domestic agenda and he has won several overwhelming electoral mandates. Interestingly, though, his loss raises the possibility that Venezuelans are becoming increasingly skeptical of their populist president. The blatant attempt to establish himself as president-for-life has raised concerns amongst traditional supporters of Chavez, and the opposition appears to have capitalized on their unease.
For the first time, the opposition has “tasted victory.” Anti-Chavez voters came out in droves, while many Chavez supporters either stayed at home or voted against the referendum. The student movement appears to have been particularly active, having played a major role in anti-government demonstrations. Meanwhile, there are clear signs of top-level division. Two state governors, a number of legislators, and, most prominently, former defence minister General Raúl Isaías Baduel came out against the referendum.
This may be an indication of the beginning of the end for Venezuela’s president. As The Economist notes,
Defeat means he is unable to stand again, legally, for the presidency. His aura of invincibility is forever damaged, and the battle for the succession seems bound to begin soon. Survival strategies no longer necessarily involve unquestioning loyalty to the “comandante”. Fractures may begin to appear in important institutions like the supreme court and parliament. The fight back is just beginning.
4 Responses to “The Beginning of the End for Chavez?”
I wouldn’t make funeral arragements for Chaez’s reign just yet.
The lack of enthusiam among his supporters centered around bread and butter issues, as I understand it. Some store shelves have been empty, while Chavez dispenses his oil money largesse abroad, as in Cuba.
He could fine tune his dmestic policies to rev up his supporters again.
We’ll see.
Don’t hold your breath waiting for Chavez to fade away. Many of the powers he aasked for in the referendums he already has, and he still has all the powers he had before the referendum. He has never shown any reluctance to use them. One is reminded of the Chavez land reforms, where of the 800,000-some acres available under the criteria for reform nationalization, Chavez
confiscatednationalized 3,000,000 of them.That he is losing support from both the military and inside his own government is true. But that might just inspire harsher tactics and purges. He failed to get what he wanted legally, but has shown no reluctance in the past to wait for his opportunities to get what he wants less formally. The constitution he was so anxious to “reform” almost beyond recognition is the same one he himself pushed through eight years ago as a “document for the ages.”
Next on the chopping block will likely be the indie media in Venezeula. Globovision in particular is prominent, and thus targeted, and several regional papers are under pressure.
1. He could ape Putin and claim the “moral right” to continue his rule indefinitely and continue the grand Bolivarian revolution.
2. He could always have a rubber-stamp crony run to succeed him.
3. Why would he concede his oil income any more than his power?
My Venezuela is a world war one battlefield. Two deeply dug in trenches with about a quarter of the Venezuelans each, another quarter of the citizens running exposed in no mans land, and the final quarter of its people wandering around bomb shocked and oblivious to all in the neighboring woods.
I pray to God we will become a nation again.
Divisionism is the true weapon of mass-destruction!