Refugee Distortion
There’s been a lot of hype about the alleged recent return of thousands of Iraqi refugees from neighboring countries like Syria and Jordan. American officials have touted this development as a clear indication that security is improving and that Iraqis feel safe enough to return to their homes. Not surprisingly, though, we’re not being given an accurate picture.
For starters, reports of Iraqis returning appear to be badly distorted. Although an Iraqi official recently announced that over 45,000 refugees returned to Iraq in October, the UNHCR has seriously disputed this claim. According to their figures, only about 4,000 Iraqis returned in October and not all of them are even refugees. In Iraq, according to Damien Cave of The New York Times, the numbers are being fudged because “returnees have essentially become a currency of progress.” Indeed, that 45,000 figure that the Iraqi government came up with is be based on some very fuzzy math.
Officials from the ministry acknowledged that the count covered all Iraqis crossing the border, not just returnees. “We didn’t ask them if they were displaced and neither did the Interior Ministry,” said Sattar Nowruz, a spokesman for the Ministry of Displacement and Migration.
As a result, the tally included Iraqi employees of The New York Times who had visited relatives in Syria but were not among the roughly two million Iraqis who have fled the country.
The figures apparently also included three people suspected of being insurgents arrested Saturday near Baquba in Diyala Province. The police described them as local residents who had fled temporarily to Syria, then returned.
Some Iraqi lawmakers said that overly broad figures were being used intentionally.
“They are using this number because they want to show that Maliki is succeeding,” said Salim Abdullah, a lawmaker and member of the largest Sunni bloc, known as the Accordance Front, referring to Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. “But this does not make the number correct. I think dozens of Iraqis return home daily, but not 1,600.”
Furthermore, most Iraqis who are returning to their country are doing so out of economic concerns, not out of a newfound faith in the security situation. As the UNHCR notes, of those returning Iraqi families they spoke with, the majority are going back to Iraq because the economic situation has gotten so bad in their respective countries that they have no other option. Whether or not the surge is working is up for debate; but whether most Iraqi refugees perceive it to be successful is not.
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4 Responses to “Refugee Distortion”
I have to disagree here. I have no idea what the average Iraqi thinks of the surge, but you can’t pin the opinion of 25 million Iraqis based on the actions of perhaps 2 million Iraqis who fled the country.
That’s a valid critique, Davebo. Thanks. I am going to make a few slight edits.
The surge has worked to lessen the levels of violence. Whether it has worked to transform the country on more than a temporary basis is the curical issue. There are many and varied posibilities for future developments, both positive and negative.
In the meantime, it’s really awful that the surge is being spun far beyoind the success it can legitimately claim, and it’s bad for both sides of the war argument.
The news is now stuck on the success stories, just like ti was in the ‘shock and awe’ stage of the war. That sets up inflated expectations, which will return to dismay and accusations of being lied to at the first sign of trouble.
The NYT article is but a small instance of trying to return the debates to a level of realism.
Inflating the good news serves no one.
Similarly to hyping the returning refugee story, when there are pictures of Baghdad now, they’re all of thriving market places. The market places are a legitimately good story, but they don’t include pictures of the walls that make the story possible.
It looks like news outlets will never learn that adult citizens can handle complex stories and don’t need to be spoonfed fairy tales. Maybe news people themselves have a problem with growing up and assuming respondibility for the false impressions they distribute.
[...] Jeb provided the link to the UNHCR. I found that the report discusses only those returning from Syria. Iraqis fled to Syria and Jordan. This was worth noting from the report: UNHCR staff also did quick interviews with returnees in Baghdad, who cited economic difficulties caused by their long displacement as a major reason for going home. Many had run out of or nearly depleted their savings. Some returned as it was the last chance to get their children back into Iraqi schools before the end of the first term. Some were indeed encouraged by the reports regarding improvement of security, but many expressed concern about longer-term security, citing the fact that militias are still around and many areas remain insecure. People have mainly been returning to areas where they feel that local security forces are working properly and are maintaining control. [...]