Is Mitt Romney Now the Favorite to Win Presidential Election 2012?
Is Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney now the favored candidate to win the 2012 Presidential election over incumbent President Barack Obama?
There are many analyses out there that do a political ballet on the issue, but Andrew Sullivan has a MUST READ — so MUST READ that we will not quote from it but suggest you read it in full yourself.
I agree with Sullivan. I heard the first 40 minutes on XM radio and from the start was jolted by the fact it sounded as if Obama was merely showing up. There was a big disconnect between the Obama I had expected and the Obama that I heard. And when I watched the rest of the debate it was clear it was even worse watching it than hearing it.
It’s also worth keeping in mind the vital, proven lessons in Samuel Popkin’s new book “The Candidate” (one of three books we are giving away as part of the TMV fundraiser which formally lasts until Nov. 9). Read the review HERE. Among the lessons: 1)a President must lay out a reason for his re-election beyond just “elect me so I can continue”, 2) candidates who win are the ones who prove the most agile and adaptable.
Putting aside any questions about Romney’s veracity in the debate it’s clear `1)Obama did not lay out forcefully enough to counter Romney his case for a second term, 2)his inability to adapt to the “new Romney” that showed up (a Romney essentially playing lip service to the moderate Governor Romney who primary candidate Romney who insisted he was severely conservative fled from).
Additionally, if you think back to the primary debates Newt Gingrich had his worst debate and the beginning of the end of his candidacy when Romney whomped him in a debate and Gingrich didn’t seem to respond. Gingrich later said he was stunned at what Romney was saying and the actual facts.
You can see where all this is heading.
Unless Obama and his advisers figure out a way to adapt to the fact one of several Romney’s could show up there is indeed a chance Romney could win.
And remember what I always say about the conventional wisdom: pundits insist this is the way it’s going to be, how this has to happen — until it turns out that it doesn’t look that way.
Then they quietly discard the old conventional wisdom, sweep it under the rug, and smugly suggest now THIS is what’s going to happen or highly likely to happen.
Until it looks like it likely won’t.
And they’ll sweep that under the rug.
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I was worried when I heard President Obama was doing debate prep with Kerry.
I know you won’t quote it but I found this very powerful:
“…This is a bounce for Romney and will presumably subside a bit. Perhaps by the next debate, the president will have a clue what he wants to do for the country and the world – and be able to communicate it. But I’m also angry. If Axelrod couldn’t see the Etch-A-Sketch coming, when Romney’s campaign all but told us they were cynical enough to do and say anything to win, then he truly is incompetent…”
That is 100% true, it was no secret that Romney could and likely would flip-flop on his positioning. All the joking questions on “Which Mitt will show up?” and so forth plus Christie saying the debate was a “Reboot” for the campaign.
They obviously were planning on the debate as the point for Romney’s latest flip-flop. However, now Romney is on record and if his hand is held to the fire can’t flip-flop from them now.
After thinking about this for a week it seems Romney may of delivered a crippling blow…During the Republican convention Romney said Obama was “intellectually exhausted”…The first debate Obama appeared intellectually and physically exhausted with only minimum energy to play defense without any over riding display of offense…My fear is the first debate may well of captured the treading water stagnation of the last four years and awoke many up from the ‘anyone but Romney trance’…
Hopefully this debate thumping will realign Obama’s compass that is beyond the debates…
G. W. Bush at least came off with compassion and had a down-to-earth attitude. I may not have liked him much, but yeah, I’d of had a beer with President Bush and his father too.
However, Romney comes off as nothing but a car salesmen (that may be rude to car salesmen) that’ll say anything to make the deal, then deny he ever said it. He’s proven it on stage more than once. How anyone can look at him and what he says and NOT see that is beyond me.
Yeah, I can see where this is heading… I’ve always thought that if Sheldon Adelson started passing out some of his $100,000,000.00 election advertising ‘investments’ to middle of the road / moderate pundits in $10,000.00 chunks he could probably buy the election in the last 30 days and still have $90,000,000.00 left.
I’m taken aback and ashamed at how the spin has been spun this last week and how rapidly people have decided to accept lies over fact. [shakes head]
Steve, it was Obama’s job to call out the lies and flip flops.
I suspect that Obama’s team is planning one of the greatest assaults in the history of Presidential Debates. I do not believe that Obama is going to simply lay down and die. He may have a HUGE attack coming. One of the reasons that I believe this is that his team is already advertising about the lies that Romney made.
If the voters watch the second debate in similar numbers to the first, the president may get a second chance at making a first impression against Romney. If that happens, Romney had better be prepared with something better than, “He is lying,” when referring to Obama. Obama will not be lying about Romney, so if Romney suggests it, they will look to the media to find out who was truthful. If Obama comes out on top of that, the Romney campaign might as well begin packing up their stuff and closing down their offices.
On the other hand, if Obama, against all conventional wisdom, does not attack Romney’s lies from the first debate in the second debate, if he lets Romney’s misleading statements stand, then he does not deserve a second term in office.