Is Mitt Romney Now the Favorite to Win Presidential Election 2012?
Is Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney now the favored candidate to win the 2012 Presidential election over incumbent President Barack Obama?
There are many analyses out there that do a political ballet on the issue, but Andrew Sullivan has a MUST READ — so MUST READ that we will not quote from it but suggest you read it in full yourself.
I agree with Sullivan. I heard the first 40 minutes on XM radio and from the start was jolted by the fact it sounded as if Obama was merely showing up. There was a big disconnect between the Obama I had expected and the Obama that I heard. And when I watched the rest of the debate it was clear it was even worse watching it than hearing it.
It’s also worth keeping in mind the vital, proven lessons in Samuel Popkin’s new book “The Candidate” (one of three books we are giving away as part of the TMV fundraiser which formally lasts until Nov. 9). Read the review HERE. Among the lessons: 1)a President must lay out a reason for his re-election beyond just “elect me so I can continue”, 2) candidates who win are the ones who prove the most agile and adaptable.
Putting aside any questions about Romney’s veracity in the debate it’s clear `1)Obama did not lay out forcefully enough to counter Romney his case for a second term, 2)his inability to adapt to the “new Romney” that showed up (a Romney essentially playing lip service to the moderate Governor Romney who primary candidate Romney who insisted he was severely conservative fled from).
Additionally, if you think back to the primary debates Newt Gingrich had his worst debate and the beginning of the end of his candidacy when Romney whomped him in a debate and Gingrich didn’t seem to respond. Gingrich later said he was stunned at what Romney was saying and the actual facts.
You can see where all this is heading.
Unless Obama and his advisers figure out a way to adapt to the fact one of several Romney’s could show up there is indeed a chance Romney could win.
And remember what I always say about the conventional wisdom: pundits insist this is the way it’s going to be, how this has to happen — until it turns out that it doesn’t look that way.
Then they quietly discard the old conventional wisdom, sweep it under the rug, and smugly suggest now THIS is what’s going to happen or highly likely to happen.
Until it looks like it likely won’t.
And they’ll sweep that under the rug.