Hizballah’s Dangerous Gambit & Lebanon’s Fading Prospects for Stability

Lebanon’s parliament has again delayed a session to elect the next president, scheduling the vote (perhaps we should say tentatively) for Friday. The delays are the result of continuing conflict between Parliament’s anti-Syrian March 14 Alliance on the one hand, and pro-Syrian groups, including Hizballah and the Amal movement (also Shiite) on the other. The pro-Syrian groups have enough power in parliament that if a consensus can’t be reached, the next president will be politically castrated before he even takes office. MP Saad Hariri (of the March 14 Alliance) and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (of Amal) have already reviewed a list of candidates and failed to reach a consensus. If the new schedule is kept, the election will come just 11 hours before the incumbent, Emile Lahoud, leaves office. If the vote is postponed again, Lebanon will suffer a spell without a president, leaving Maronites disenfranchised, Shiite groups on the offensive, and everyone dangerously edgy.

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