Congress Disapproval Rise To 75 Percent Increases Democrats’ Dilemma
Congress’ approval rating is heading so far south that the Democrats in charge may soon smell the magnolias.
The latest CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll shows a 75 percent disapproval rating, guardedly good news for the Democratic Party itself and generally lousy news for the Democrats in charge of — and serving in — Congress:
A year ago, a similar poll found the numbers to be 28 percent approval, 63 percent disapproval.
“The big issues of the day just don’t seem to be being addressed,” said Sarah Binder, a political science professor at George Washington University who studies Congress. “The issues that matter most to people — the economy, health care, the environment and the larger war in Iraq — it is so difficult for Congress to move on those issues that I believe the public looks and says, ‘Why aren’t they doing anything?’”
Republicans will argue it’s because the Democrats are more interested in making political statements than actually working for solutions. Democrats will argue that Republicans — with the White House’s veto backing — have a strategy to nix everything they try to do on the war and other matters so they can run against a “do-nothing Congress” in a copycat campaign patterned after the come-from-behind President Harry Truman.
The Democrats’ problem is that they are already distrusted by some Republicans, hated by another segment of Republicans and are also now exasperating their party’s left wing which expected big changes after 2006. But other Democrats point out the Demmies didn’t win enough in 2006 to override a veto or scuttle GOP attempts to short-circuit their legislative moves.
Does this mean voters are ready to sweep aside the Democrats in 2008 and put Republicans back in? Not necessarily but there are clouds gathering on the political horizon:
Approval of congressional Democrats stands at 43 percent, twice that of Congress in general. The flip side, however, is that Democrats who control Congress still face a disapproval rating of 51 percent, a figure that has increased 11 percentage points since March. Video Watch a report on the new job approval numbers »
“The ratings for Congress overall have been mired in the mid- to low 20s for several months, but for most of the year, Americans have had a positive view of the Democrats in Congress,” said CNN polling director Keating Holland. “That’s not true any longer — this poll is the first time we have found majority disapproval for the Democratic leaders’ track record since they took control of Congress.”
Holland also notes that these numbers will make it increasingly harder for the Democrats to prevail on issues.
So what does it mean? It means anything can happen, says CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider :
“No one is betting that the Democrats will lose their majorities in the House and Senate,” he said, “but when anti-Washington sentiment is as high as it is now, politics is very unpredictable.”
The results in from a Field Poll taken earlier this month aren’t terrific for the Democrats, either:
The California Field Poll has released another part of it’s current poll taken earlier in October and in many ways the results are an echo of what this venerable poll showed in August.
California registered voters disapprove of Congress by a margin of 64% to 22%–statistically about the same as the 66% to 20% disapproval registered in the August 24, 2007 poll by Field, and within the margin of error of the poll numbers in this release of 4.1%.
Field does not ask voters why they are dissatisfied with Congress as an institution. What is interesting is the partisan divide, and the numbers are quite telling throughout the survey, especially as we see the numbers as to how Democrats, Republicans, and “Non-partisan/others” break down as to the performance of Democrats and Republicans in Congress.
Democrats by a margin of 24% to 58% disapprove of Congress, perhaps a bit lower than in August when the numbers were 27% approval and 55% disapproval. Republicans are more harshly critical of Congress by a margin of 20% to 70%–this is actually a statistically significant improvement since August when it was 14% approval and 79% disapproval. The non-partisan others are disapproving by 22% to 63%, which more approving than in August when they were disapproving 65% to 17%.
Several analysts have pointed to disappointment in the war as the main reason for the low grades from the public: many Democrats themselves are giving the Congress thumbs down. They feel frustrated because, in their view, in terms of war policy, the 2006 elections meant little substantive change.
Can the Democrats regroup? Amid these danger signs (even Majority Leader Harry Reid has a dangerously low approval rating now in his own state and politics IS local) there are reports that Democrats are considering ways of heading in a new direction. Whether that is in terms of policy or tactics, is still not totally clear.
But the Democrats still have several advantages: George Bush remains a hugely unpopular president and there are no signs yet that the Republicans running for the GOP 2008 Presidential nomination seek to woo votes from the center rather than running yet another election where the Republican game plan is to motivate its conservative voters to vote by pushing conservative hot-button issues.
Additionally, many GOPers have announced retirements so the Republicans will have more seats to defend — something not easy in any year, let alone a year when the “brand name” has taken an imagery hit.
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Posted by D. Cupples | The Moderate Voice comments on a CNN/Opinion Research Corp poll that gives Congress a record-low 75% disapproval rating: Republicans will argue it’s because the Democrats are more interested in making political statements than …
Disapproval of Congress is always translated to mean disapproval of the majority party in Congress..
While that is valid to a considerable degree, it is not entirely so, and these type of polls don’t clarify the meaning.
One factor that springs immediately to mind is disapproval of the partisan squabbling in Congress.
It would be interesting to see the results for a poll asking asking specifically about that.
The questions in a poll too often set up the results, and then the results and commentary on them reinforce what is often a significant misunderstanding of the real situation.
Unfortunately, polls are, to a large extent, just another money making gimmick. Like the quality of news coverage, the quality of poll taking is not suffiiciently taken into account.
The public has watched bills go down in defeat that the majority supports, like SCHIP, timelines in Iraq and stem cell research. Partisanship has turned the 110th into another Do-nothing Congress, while lurid sex and money scandals still make the evening news. The Democrats have largely failed to stymie the Bush agenda and have caved on war funding and Fisa.
What WILL help the Dems in ’08? There have been massive retirement announcements by GOP representatives and Senators, which means they have a lot more open seats to defend. Defending an open seat is more expensive than running an incumbent, and the RNC is way behind in fundraising. Also, some traditional GOP voting blocs- like the evangelicals may have been turned off by the Craig and Vitter scandal.
And who does the public favor in a generic Congressional matchup? Not the Republicans. The public is disappointed in the Democrats in Congress. But the public despises the Republicans in Congress.
Polls concerning an unpopular congress are all well and good (terrible actually) but I for one am ready to see an opinion poll on some different aspect of our government. How about an opinion poll on the Supreme Court for example? Or better yet, how about an opinion poll on the performance of the electorate itself? Yeah, that’s the one I want to see!
Say what you want about the Republicans being a rudderless ship but the truth of the matter for the Democrats is simple.
THEY HAVE NO MESSAGE. Never have. Never will.
They are so filled with every group that has an agenda that they run helter skelter this way and that screaming about this that and the other and at the end of the day the voters are left scratching their heads and going……
HUH?
Its their bane. The left screams about the right pandering to the Religious Right and yet it is a simple message they repeat over and over. Family values, personal responsibility and strong national defense and tax cuts to stimulate a robust economy.
Thats pretty simple.
The Democrats on the other hand have the message of:
War is bad, well some wars. This war. No wait we voted for it, but we dont like it. We want a strong military, but wont use it. We want to talk but are not sure what to say. Gay rights, Let the country be overrun by Mexicans, dont build a fence….free trade is bad, no its good, more jobs, bad wages, Health care, welfare, social programs, meals for kids, Peta. Environment. Global warming. Al Gore is a noble peace prize winner. Racial equality, racial quotas. Abortion rights, Roe.v Wade is good.
The list goes on and on and on an on.
Simple. The reason democrats are so vulnerable is because they simply cannot in a few sentences say what they are about.
They want to be all things to all people. Finger in the wind politicians.
Say what you will but simple is better in politics. It gets votes and wins elections.
The Democratic Party would have a much easier time if they would just make a few changes to their positions and throw a few of the old stalwarts under the bus.
Democrats may be for helping the little guy but when they come out and support open borders and unlimited immigration, the little guy knows that he will be screwed in the long run. It also makes all the claims about saving the environment moot or being for good schools when the Democrats support unlimited immigration.
The Democratic Party should also end the rigid seniority in the House and Senate. Why should an idiot like Robert Byrd be in charge of appropriations in the Senate.
The Republicans should lose in a massive rout in 2008 if the Democrats would adjust the appeal slightly.
[...] so now the Democrat Congress is being rejected by 75% of the people it is suppose to represent. The latest CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll shows a 75 percent disapproval rating, guardedly good [...]
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The Democrats have always had one poweful message:: inclusiveness.
That works just fine for a lot of people. Since you don;t like it, I suggest you stick to another party.