Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey has this interesting tidbit, lost amid some of the flashier polls that are focused on other aspects of this race — and the weather:
When National Journal buries a lede, man, they really bury it. A new poll from Mason-Dixon in Missouri of 625 likely voters shows what everyone already suspected — that Todd Akin had blown a five-point lead in Missouri’s US Senate race and now trails by nine, 50/41 [see update], to Claire McCaskill. But what many didn’t expect was that the crash-and-burn of Akin would not damage Mitt Romney at all. In the 9th paragraph out of ten, we find out that Romney leads Barack Obama in the critical swing state, and it’s not all that close:
McCaskill’s lead is a testament to the damage caused by Akin’s remarks. She remains less-than-popular, as slightly more voters view her unfavorably (41 percent) than favorably (39 percent). And, despite worries that Akin’s remarks could also harm the candidacy of presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor leads President Obama, 50 percent to 43 percent. Obama’s favorable-unfavorable split of 38 percent-48 percent is worse than McCaskill’s.
It’s not even close. Obama carries the metropolitan areas of St. Louis and Kansas City, but only by 50/39 and 50/43, respectively. Romney gets over 60% in every other area of the state, while Obama can only get to 36%. Obama has leads among women and 18-34YOs, but only by 2 and 10 points, respectively. Romney wins a majority in every other age demo, and has a +14 among men at 54/40. Oddly, the newspaper’s table doesn’t break out independents in the presidential race.
The presidential race isn’t likely to change much, either…
Go to the link to read it in its entirety.
Yes, new and old media coverage can fall into certain narratives, made more easy to fall into since there is now such an ideological division not just on ideological sites but in brand names in some instances on news sources.
But the bottom line is this: this race is a tossup. You can’t say Obama is winning at this point. You can’t say Romney is winning. And people on both sides will cherry pick the polls they like best — never, ever questioning the methodology of a poll that puts their candidate ahead. To really keep tabs on the race you have to look at a variety of polls, weigh them, look at trends and possible factors that will momentarily boost or suppress a candidate’s numbers. The coverage is still about Akin, but Obama has an akin problem in Missouri if he wants to be confident he can add that one to his column on election day.
UPDATE: A new poll puts Obama one point ahead nationally. Most troubling for Dems: 59% percent see the country on the wrong track.
So let’s see: some Democrats will say the methodology is bad and that Obama is actually further ahead. And some Republicans will insist there weren’t enough Republicans asked, and that Romney is ahead. As the dentist said to the tooth: “You know the drill.”
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.