President Pervez Musharraf has long been balancing on a shaky tightrope. Is he now standing on a tightrope in the middle of an unfolding political earthquake?
The Christian Science Monitor reports that many Pakistanis are increasingly irate over the politically nimble President’s latest maneuver:
Atif Jehangir sits in the half-light of Rajah Market on a cool late-summer evening and says that the events of the past week here could push him to terrorism.
It is an unexpected admission, not only because the young business student could be the face of Pakistani moderation: educated, beardless, and dressed in Western clothes. But also because the power-sharing deal announced last week between President Pervez Musharraf and political leader Benazir Bhutto has been hailed in many corners of the West as the keystone to political calm.
Instead it has set Mr. Jehangir alight: “There is no way this is going to bring stability,” he says. “It is going to create more terrorists among people like me.”
Rhetoric often teeters toward the extreme in Pakistan, but there is no doubt that Mr. Musharraf’s reelection this past weekend – and his pact with Ms. Bhutto – has only increased anger across much of the country.
Citizens see it not as a step toward democracy, but as a United States-brokered deal to prop up Pakistan’s ruling elite, which is almost universally viewed as corrupt. As such, the deal exacerbates two of Pakistanis’ most deeply ingrained frustrations: that America meddles too much in its affairs, and that justice is subverted by the rich and withheld from the poor.
Musharraf won a big election victory…presumably. He was elected by whopping numbers (the opposition boycotted) by Pakistan’s federal and provincial legislatures. But Pakistan’s Supreme Court is going to soon decide whether or not his candidacy was legal.
And there is another aspect to this deal — the possible consequences in terms of actual policy.
Ed Morrissey notes that Musharraf had the Pakistani Army attack Islamist bases in Waziristan. He writes:
Now that he has his hand-picked successor in place as army chief of staff, though, Musharraf looks to be leaning towards a fight. He has almost concluded an alliance with Benazir Bhutto, who favors a hard-line approach to the Islamists. She even went so far as to endorse American action in Waziristan at one point, which has earned her the undying enmity of the Islamists there. If Musharraf and Bhutto conclude an alliance, the Islamists know that they’re the target.
Expect Musharraf to tiptoe in Waziristan for a while longer. He’d like to turn the tribes in the region against the Taliban and al-Qaeda, if possible, rather than take on the entire region. If the Islamists continue to attack his army outposts, though, Musharraf may not tiptoe for much longer. At some point, the army will demand a march step rather than a tiptoe.
Events in Pakistan continue to comprise the highest-stakes dramas around. Will Musharraf fall off the tightrope? And, if so, who will take his place? And what will that mean to nuclear-power Pakistan’s longstanding close ties to the United States?
Pakistan has been, all along, a source of deep concern. It’s been teetering between reform and chaos for some time.
The effects of any one move in this direction or that are hard to predict. You know what they are only when they happen.
It’s a big worry, has been, will be.