As the Iraq example has shown, transitioning to democracy is smoother in some states than in others. Matt Eckel, a blogger and international relations guru who writes at Rational International, has written an interesting and detailed post about the conditions by which countries can be said to be “ready” for successful democratic governance. The full piece is here.
Very interesting discussion at FPW.
I come away with the impression that develpment in societies is not all that predictable, no matter which guiding priniciples are employed. Too many variables depend on actual, but unolding, events and conditions.
The building of civil society and gradualism seem reasonble when looking backward at history, but the story of democracies is not finished, and how our own will evolve is uncertain.
In a period of malaise (the war, rapidly changing economic conditions) there are increasing calls for dramaic change (third parties, splitting elecoral voes, etc)., and it’s impossible to predict to what that wil lead.
It seems to me that in order for the institutions of a civil society to work theri magic, there must be general trust in them, at least among a substantial majority. When trust begins to fade, as I fear is happening in the US, societies can take dramatic turns. What will be seen of democracies from the remove of some futures date is an interesting question to ponder.
Democracies remain fragile, IMO, no matter how long ago they wete established. No wonder introducing democracies is so tricky.