Moving Towards a New Cold War
With naïve carelessness, the United States is moving towards a new generational Cold War that may be the turning point in unraveling American leadership of the modern world. Pax Americana may be the shortest ever in the history of empires.
The administration, media, politicians and a large swathe of electors are working themselves into an anti-Iranian frenzy and speedily moving towards a long era of hostility to that country. The US may never bomb Iran or conduct any other military act against it, but enough fear is being created to make Teheran nervously gather all means of deterrence.
The latest episode is the insulting treatment of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during the last few days. He came to New York as the President of an ancient civilization for meetings at the United Nations. Columbia University voluntarily invited him to speak but its President Lee Bollinger repeatedly insulted him in the introductory remarks before hearing what he had to say.
Many people, including this writer, believe those insults were richly deserved and congratulate the University for upholding free speech by offering a podium. However, it is uncouth to invite a person and insult him before he has said a word. If this was Bollinger’s intention, he should not have invited Ahmadinejad in the first place. Whatever the opposition to Ahmadinejad within Iran, its people will not forget the humiliation dumped on their representative in a country with which many would like to build bridges.
Despite the trauma of 9/11 and the quagmire of Iraq, American leaders seem to think that their military and economic power confers some kind of invincibility upon them. Perhaps because of that, many feel it is okay to insult a foreign leader who sees the national interests of his people in a light they dislike.
Clearly, Ahmadinejad is despicable as regards his views on the Holocaust, but some of his worldview is not without backers in his own country and elsewhere. Today, it would be hard to find people outside America who do not agree that the way the US government tries to manage the world “leads to war, discrimination and bloodshed.â€
If the contempt of Americans for Iran is not reined in, a Cold War growing from a clash of civilisations with Islam may become inevitable. The fact is that the US is making enemies of both Sunni and Shiites. It has broken the back of Sunni power in Iraq and is backing a Shiite revival there, which is creating fear throughout the Sunni world.
At the same time, it is threatening to bomb the Shia heartland, which is Iran, thus forcing Teheran to collect all possible means of asymmetrical warfare. Iran is increasing its capabilities of fostering terrorism and insurgency in Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Its goal is to ensure that any military attack against it will spread uncontrollable political instability and violence throughout the Middle East. It is also secretly developing nuclear weapons to bring vulnerability to Israel, the chief US ally in the region.
With almost naïve insouciance, the US is making enemies among the fundamentalist Sunnis of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan and Indonesia who are far more fierce religious fanatics than the more mystical Shiites. This is happening because the US has dismantled the frontline Sunni bulwark against Shiites in Iraq. The fundamentalist Sunnis have already demonstrated on 9/11 and later that they are more willing terrorists that Shiites.
Simultaneously, the growing hostility of the American people (not just the government) towards Iran is edging towards a clash with the Shiites. Americans are pretending that Ahmadinejad is the culprit and all will be fine if he is dislodged from power. That is far from the truth. The US is creating fear in the people of Iran, not in Ahmadinejad.
Any future Iranian President will be a nationalist and will not allow his ancient people to be humiliated by Washington through threats and insults. Inevitably, any Iranian regime will amass the means of deterrence including nuclear weapons.
At the same time, both Sunni and Shia Muslims in the street will be wary of America, if not hostile. Their dictatorial rulers, including the Arab sheikhs allied to Washington, may not be able to contain the growing anti-American anger of their people. All of those are the ingredients of a prolonged Cold War.
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5 Responses to “Moving Towards a New Cold War”
A good indication of this is the Leiberman-Kyl amendment that passed through the senate today. An unfortunate piece of political garbage, it serves merely to keep the pressure up in the region and a continued excuse to keep a huge force deployed there. Although modified to be phrased as a general reiteration of common sense defense policy, it does have language that specifically targets Iran’s version of the National Guard calling it a terrorist organization. At its worse it could be perverted by an executive that decides we really need to bomb Iran because they have a political hack leading their country who is currently way-outmaneuvering our state department.
Well stated post, thanks.
He is the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is not an ancient civilization. This Islamic Republic has in fact in many ways turned its back on the Persian heritage of their ancestors while attempting to say they haven’t. In addition it must be recognized that he is president of a republic in name only. The description of him as a tyrant is accurate even if considered an insult by him and his sympathizers. Although it must be admitted that he is more the public face of the tyrants that run Iran than the one with actual power.
There is nothing that the United States can do to improve our image in the minds of those who share the attitudes of the current Iranian leadership. Ever. Our acquiescence to the elimination of Israel, should they and their allies be capable of would only temporarily assuage their hostility. However it is not our “freedom” that makes them hate us no matter what this Administration might say. To a religious fanatic it only takes the fact that we do not share their faith. It would never be expressed so openly and it is possible that they can’t even admit it to themselves. We are decadent in their eyes. We are evil. Any conspiracy theory that involves us attacking all of Islam will be believed. It will sustain their hatred and distrust.
Israel and the Palestinians currently serve as a good excuse for many. To others, such as OBL, our presence it Saudi Arabia was the claimed reason. Now that we have no soldiers on Saudi soil the alliance of expediency between the Saudi regime and the United States government is a good enough reason when combined with Afghanistan and Iraq. Even if we had not invaded Iraq Al Qaeda would claim Afghanistan as justification because of course we had no right to retaliate for 9-11. Our involvement with the Middle East has been the beginning. But to the widely scattered fanatical fundamentalists of Islam from now on it wouldn’t matter what Muslim country or countries we have any kind of relationship with. There will still be hostility and terrorism.
And it will not be a Cold War. There will be attacks. There will be terrorism. There will be murder. And there is no realistic thing that we can do to change it.
Every bad thing said about Amedinejad is ture.
It’s not that he deserves to be treated politely.
It’s not that he doesn’t deserve to be insulted.
What’s important is how we present ourselves to the world. While it’s necessary to speak harsh truth, HOW you phrase those truths (and insults) makes all the difference. If we descend to his rhetorical level, we make ourselves just like him, and become indistinguishable from him.
Instead, if we speak our mind with dignity, we make a contrast that showcases how we are different and thus better, more logical, more civilized, more dependable and more capable of sound judgment.
What is happening now is that much of the world is beginning to couple the US and Iran together as just two crazy counties endangering the world with their war of insults and implied threats.
What we should seek, instead, is to make clear how we are different. That can only be done by rejecting the language of verbal street brawls and speaking with dignity.
We miss the chance to do that again and again.
It’s a huge mistake, IMO.
Jim – It seems your mind is as closed to Iranians as you believe theirs is closed to us. I’m old enough to remember when the conventional wisdom was those Russians and Chinese were implacable enemies and would never change. Looking back at my wife’s scrapebooks from her great grandfather’s time in WW1 when Turkey was said to also be a strange implacable enemy.
People change as do countries – nothing is forever. The best way to encourage change on BOTH sides is communication and cultural exchanges.
Not to Iranians, but to their current rulers and the terrorists they support. Did you miss that in my post? The truth is that you’re hopelessly naive. The Chinese still are not our friends. In case you’ve missed the news lately, neither are the Russians.