Defense Update: An Expert Assesses the Syrian ‘Maturing Insurgency’ (UPDATED)
UPDATE:
The latest, high-level Syrian defector, Nawaf Fares, Syria’s ambassador to Iraq, has urged “all honest members” of Assad’s Syrian Baath Party to follow his path “because the regime has turned it to an instrument to kill people and their aspiration to freedom,” according to the New York Times.
Burhan Ghalioun, a member of executive bureau and former leader of the Syrian National Council, the main anti-Assad opposition group, said, “We welcome the defection of the Syrian ambassador to Iraq. We have called upon high-ranking officials whether in the military or in the diplomatic service to defect from this regime and join the revolution of dignity,” according to the Times.
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Original Post:
In a post about Syrian defections to other countries, I also mentioned internal defections: Syrian military officers and troops defecting to the opposition forces, many taking their weapons with them.
A reader asked about the strength and effectiveness of the rebel forces.
I mentioned that there are reports that rebels are beginning to control more and more of the countryside and small towns — even traveling openly on some highways — and I promised to look into it.
A few days ago, USA Today reported that Syrian rebels are growing more effective as they have increasingly turned to roadside bombs and other guerrilla tactics to topple the regime of Bashar al-Assad; that while the rebels have been pushed from major cities they “operate with near impunity in parts of the countryside, outside the reach of Syria’s overstretched military.”
USA Today quotes Joseph Holliday, a Syria analyst at the Institute for the Study of War who recently completed a report on the conflict.
What better place to get the facts than from the source?
Here are some comments from the Executive Summary to Holliday’s excellent report, “Syria’s Maturing Insurgency.”
But first Mr. Holliday’s impressive qualifications.
Joseph Holliday is a Senior Research Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) focusing on the ongoing crisis in Syria. He wrote the ISW reports “Syria’s Armed Opposition” in March 2012 and “The Struggle for Syria in 2011” in December 2011. Holliday has briefed Members of Congress and Congressional staff, military and intelligence personnel, and State Department officials. He has also provided analysis for news outlets including the New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, USA Today, CNN, BBC and Al Jazeera.
Prior to joining ISW, Holliday served as an infantry and intelligence officer in the U.S. Army from June 2006 to September 2011, and continues to serve in the Army reserves. During his time on active duty, Holliday deployed to East Baghdad, Iraq from November 2007 to January 2009 with the 10th Mountain Division, 2-30 Infantry Battalion. From May 2010 to May 2011 he deployed to Afghanistan’s Kunar Province as the Intelligence Officer for 2-327 Infantry Battalion, 101st Airborne Division. Holliday has a Bachelor’s degree in History from Princeton University.
Now to the summary.
Holliday writes that Syria’s maturing insurgency has begun to carve out its own de facto safe zones around Homs city, in northern Hama, and in the Idlib countryside after successfully withdrawing into the countryside, where as of June 2012, they control large swaths of Syria’s northern and central countryside.
He further claims that while the Assad regime is postured to hold Damascus and other large cities, it does not have the capacity to defeat the insurgency that prospers in the countryside.
According to Holliday:
The insurgency has approximately 40,000 men under arms as of late May 2012. New local rebel groups continue to form, which presents a challenge to command and control. However, responsible operational-level structures have emerged in the form of provincial military councils that derive legitimacy from the local rebel groups operating under their command. The provincial military councils operate under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), but make their own operational decisions.
(While the number, 40,000, is impressive, they face approximately 200,000 loyal security forces and militias equipped with armor, artillery and helicopters.)
Holliday describes in detail — in the report — the organization, make-up, coordination, etc. of and between provincial military councils (majlis askeri), FSA battalions, provincial revolutionary councils, (majlis thawar), and other rebel organizations.
Holliday warns that the conflict in Syria is approaching a tipping point at which the insurgency will control more territory than the regime, but that “neither the perpetuation nor the removal of Assad will guarantee Syria’s future stability. In order to prevent Syrian state failure, the insurgency must mature into a professional armed force that can promote and protect a stable political opposition.”
Finally, that while external support has contributed to the success of the insurgency, “the resulting competition for resources has encouraged radicalization and infighting” and has undermined the professionalization of the opposition’s ranks. “Carefully managing this support could reinforce responsible organizations and bolster organic structures within the Syrian opposition,” says Holliday.
How about the U.S.?
The priority for U.S. policy on Syria should be to encourage the development of opposition structures that could one day establish a monopoly on the use of force. External support must flow into Syria in a way that reinforces the growth of legitimate and stable structures within the Syrian opposition movement. This will mitigate the regional threats of Syrian state failure and prolonged civil war.
Please read the entire, superb report here
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Good info. So sounds like they are still a ways off from being in a position to oust Assad without it turning into nationwide anarchy over there.
We’ll see…
This has nothing to do with the Syria issue, but I just read that a Taliban leader was quoted as saying they can’t win the Afghan war and would be willing to discuss being part of the new Afghanistan. I’m surprised no one has mentioned it on this site. Is that bogus or is it just too early in the day? Sounds like a lot is going on.
OK, I got the right thread now:
@Slamfu
This from, of all places, Sidney, Australia:
THE Taliban have again rejected overtures for peace from the Afghan government, vowing to continue their violent insurgency across the country.
But at the same time, doubts appear to be emerging within the terrorist network over their capacity to win the war against the international forces currently in the country, and even over the foreign-funded Afghan Army that will be left behind after 2014
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/taliban-reject-karzais-plea-for-peace-talks-20120711-21w7z.html#ixzz20LTPazyF
There are rumors/reports periodically about such talks (secrety and otherwise), sometimes even of contacts between the U.S. military and the Taliban.
It is much easier to topple a government than it is to form one and keep it running. A small (even Tea bagger sized and/or occupy sized) group could easily cause huge anarchy in a country the size of the USA–if they were ruthless enough. That is the bugger of asymetric warfare.
The Syrian ambassador asked for asylum in Turkey. Several pilots and some top commanders have defected. It’s only a matter of time until Assad is replaced, but with what?
For those interested in Syria, here’s a part on Syria from today’s DOD briefing at the Pentagon with Pentagon Press Secretary George Little and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Media Operations Capt. John Kirby
Q: I have a question on Syria. Could you give us an assessment, how do you see the current situation in Syria? Do you see any achievements that — do you think that the opposition has made in the — in the past few weeks?
MR. LITTLE: The situation in Syria remains very serious, Joe. We are very concerned about the regime’s actions. They continue to pursue violence against their own population. It’s abhorrent, deplorable, and just about every other synonym associated with those words.
We are naturally watching the situation closely. We continue to work with our foreign partners to try to bring pressure to bear against the Syrian regime. That diplomatic and economic pressure we think is having an effect. And we have seen, as you all know, certain high-level defections of late that show that some members of the Syrian regime are making the correct and moral decision to remove themselves from a group of people who are doing great harm to the Syrian people.
Q: (off mic) the Pentagon has had any contacts with — with the opposition, with the Syrian opposition?
MR. LITTLE: I’m unaware of any contacts.
Q: Do you have any clarification on the movement of the Russian ships, the intent, what they may or may not be carrying for possible delivery? Has the U.S. sought clarification from the Russians?
MR. LITTLE: Anything related to ships and water, I’m turning over today to the future CHINFO for the United States Navy.
CAPTAIN KIRBY: Yeah, United States Navy, not Russia.
MR. LITTLE: Right.
CAPTAIN KIRBY: We — as I said Tuesday, we know that the Russians have stated that they have dispatched a couple of vessels to the Mediterranean for the purpose of exercising those vessels and the sailors on them, as well as resupply to their base at Tartus. We’ve seen nothing that indicates that’s anything other than their intention and their desire.
But, no, we have not — to my knowledge — certainly not from the Pentagon — reached out to the Russian ministry directly to ask them or ascertain the specific intent. But that’s what we believe to be the case and certainly taking them at that word — their word.
Q: No indication that they intend to deliver arms, parts, helicopters, anything –
(CROSSTALK)
CAPTAIN KIRBY: No, as I said, everything we’ve seen indicates that they’re doing exactly what they’ve been saying that they’re going to do, that they — they may be conducting some exercises in the Med, and — and they may be working to resupply some of their facilities there at Tartus.
I mean, as we said before, I mean, this is — it’s a volatile situation. Some of their Russian citizens have come under attack. So, I mean, it’s certainly reasonable to expect, if they have a military facility in another country, that they would want to make sure they’re doing what they need to do to — to keep that base safe and viable.
Q: And any indication that they’re putting in additional armed forces to guard those installations they have at Tartus?
CAPTAIN KIRBY: No. Again, other than what we — what they’ve said, just in terms of resupply — now, there may be — I mean, I don’t know. There may be some personnel swaps that are going to take place here. I don’t know. But, again, that’s a better question for them. But the point is, we — you know, we think they’re doing exactly what they’re saying they’re doing with respect to — to those ships.
Q: Are you meeting with the Russian generals, which are just meters away?
CAPTAIN KIRBY: I’m not. I’m not allowed in the meetings. But I suspect — look, I — as we said the other day, I think certainly issues regarding Syria are going to come up in discussions today with General Makarov, who is here meeting with General Dempsey. I certainly would expect that — that they’ll talk broadly about the situation in Syria. And then I would point you to a readout statement that I think the Joint Staff is going to put out after the meetings are over today