Harris Poll: Thompson Pulls Ahead Of Giuliani

A new Harris poll suggests two trends (if these are indeed echoed in other polls): former Senator and actor Fred Thompson has now pulled ahead of former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (showing a still fluid GOP race) and Senator Hillary Clinton continues to be ahead among Democratic voters (perhaps showing a consolidation of her status):

After officially declaring his candidacy, U.S. Senator Fred Thompson moves ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. One-third (32%) of those who say they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus will vote for Thompson while 28 percent will vote for Giuliani.

Even though there’s always a margin of error, that shows more than a “dead heat.”

Much further back is John McCain, who continues his downward slide with 11 percent saying they would vote for the Arizona Senator, and 9 percent who say they would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

And then there’s this:

On the Democratic side, Senator Hillary Clinton continues to build on her large lead. Just under half (46%) of those who would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus would vote for the former First Lady while one-quarter (25%) would vote for Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Former vice president candidate and North Carolina Senator John Edwards is further back with 14 percent saying they would vote for him. No other candidate is in double digits.

Unless she seriously shoots herself in the foot or flubs, this suggests she is solidifying her support among a large chunk of Democratic voters.

Meanwhile the poll found an interesting generational aspect that indicates some candidates have younger supporters (voters who are less likely to vote) and some older supporters (voters who are more likely to vote).

On the Democratic side, Senator Obama does better than Senator Clinton among Echo Boomers (those aged 18 to 29). While 42 percent of this youngest generation will vote for him, 37 percent will vote for her. However, in the age group that is most likely to actually vote, Matures (those 61 and older), Senator Clinton leads Senator Obama by a very wide margin (56% versus 16%). In fact, one in five Matures (21%) will vote for John Edwards, so he is ahead of Senator Obama as well in this key age group.

On the Republican side a similar difference occurs. One-third (33%) of both Echo Boomers and Generation Xers (30 to 41) will vote for Rudy Giuliani while Fred Thompson garners just 8 percent and 22 percent of these generations respectively. But, again among those generations more likely to vote, Fred Thompson is ahead. It is close among Baby Boomers (those aged 42 to 60) as one-third (33%) of this generation will vote for Giuliani and 37 percent will vote for Thompson. Among Matures, the lead is greater – 44 percent will vote for Thompson and 16 percent will vote for Giuliani. Interestingly, one in five (20%) of the youngest generation, Echo Boomers, say they will vote for the oldest candidate, John McCain.

Bottom line: The race is now more fluid on the Republican side and it’s possible the race can go down to the wire. The race is more stable on the Democratic side — suggesting that the Democrats are likely to be able to rally around their candidate much earlier than the Republicans.