Bush Makes Surprise Visit To Iraq To “See For Himself” Situation

It’s holiday time and you truly could have predicted this one:

President Bush made a surprise visit to Iraq Monday, shortly before a White House deadline to report to Congress on the U.S. troop increase there.

After exiting the aircraft, a line of military officials, including top war commander Gen. David Petraeus, welcomed Bush with smiles, salutes and handshakes in the 115- degree heat.

Bush plans to eat dinner with U.S. troops and to meet with top military commanders, the U.S. ambassador, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and provincial tribal leaders. …

Bush has hailed Anbar as a success, citing the U.S. military’s alliance with tribal leaders in fighting al Qaeda in Iraq.

The White House denied the trip was a publicity visit ahead of a report about U.S. troop increases in Iraq to be delivered by Petraeus next week in Washington.

It’s just that the timing is coincidental. The TIME story has a phrase that raises an eyebrow:

Aides billed the six-hour stop as a fact-finding mission for the President, saying Bush wanted to see for himself what was happening in Iraq, since it will be his responsibility to make the final call about troop levels. “This gives the president an opportunity first hand to hear from people directly involved and make his own assessments at the same time,” said National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley on board Air Force One Sunday night.

The TIME story also suggests the trip happening on the day it’s happening on is not happenstance:

The surprise trip was planned over a six week period by a small group at the White House, convened by chief of staff Josh Bolten and including Hadley, vice president Dick Cheney and a handful of other top aides. Hadley said that when the President was approached about the idea of a trip to Anbar province he leapt at it.

Unless Mr. Bush spent more than a day there, it’s unlikely he would be able to “see for himself’ what is going on. The White House routinely gets tons of detailed reports from the field. To genuinely “see for himself” what the situation is in military, political and security terms, he’d have to stay a bit longer.

This is one of these events that many Presidents do in wartime — visi the troops. It’s a gesture of good-will and for many Presidents is a good, solid photo-op. It could help the administration because the fact it was a “surprise” visit immediately heightens its ranking as a dramatic must-do story for news editors (who always are looking ways to use stories during a slow holiday period).

But in the end, it’s unlikely the visit will change many minds among the America public, or Bush’s — no matter what is said during his trip or upon his return.

He’ll have a limited amount of time to talk to a limited number of people. Will those with dissenting views about how things are going in Iraq — representatives of various Iraqi groups that don’t agree with the government — meet with him as well? He’ll largely get the official view, connect with some Iraqi bigwigs and perhaps read some Iraq government officials the riot act.

Meanwhile, over the years Americans have seen enough news stories about surprise Presidential visits to troops, or just visits to troops, so it’s unlikely to change many minds.

Those opposed to the war will dismiss it as a publicity stunt. Those who support it will say it’s a plus for Bush and will bolster policy or underscore how well the surge is going. And those in the part of the American public that polls show are souring on the war but balk at calls for an immediate or timetable pullout yet want to wind things down soon and distrust the administration’s rhetoric or photo ops are unlikely to change their evolving views by Bush coming back after a day or so and calling the surge a growing success. Other info could change minds one way or another.

The visit will boost troop morale. Otherwise, the story will provide an “AHA! See how it’s working” for those who already support the administration but are unlikely to change the growing cumulative public perception of the war, it’s long-term wiseness, its early management and how it is being conducted.