Vision

Dan Balz wrote a fascinating article for the Washington Post about the presidential elections. He asks seven questions and tries to answer them himself. The first question: “Is the Clinton campaign a true juggernaut — or is that just what she wants everyone to believe?”

The answer: “Not a juggernaut, but it is the best campaign on the block right now. That’s a view widely shared among Democratic strategists and emphatically asserted by some veteran Republicans sizing up the race.” Read more of the answer at the Washington Post.

Some other interesting questions:
- “Is there a Republican front-runner?”
- “Is it too late for Al Gore or Newt Gingrich to get into the race?”
- “Do ideas matter in this election?”

The second question “Is there a Republican front-runner?” is of interest to me because I have been wondering about the same thing. It is a question I have asked myself many times. On the one hand, the easy answer is “yes, Rudy Giuliani.” There is something to that, he is polling first in the national polls, but Mitt Romney does well in the early states like New Hampshire and Iowa. Besides that, Mike Huckabee is also on the rise (in national and state polls). In other words, the Republican race is quite unpredictable.

Balz’s answer is that there are two frontrunners: Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. Giuliani is leading in the nation-wide Gallup Poll(s), and until now, every candidate who led this poll after Labor Day won the nomination. On the other hand, Mitt Romney might be able to do what no Republican has done before him: win both Iowa and New Hampshire. If he does that, he might very well be able to go all the way.

All in all, an expert called Giuliani the “national front-runner,” Romney the “”insiders’ front-runner” and Fred Thompson “a giant question mark.”

Interesting to see that Mike Huckabee isn’t mentioned. It seems to me that he is becoming one dangerous outsider. An outsider, but one with potential.

The question whether it is too late for Gingrich and / or Gore to enter the race is answered by Balz with “yes.” I agree. They have waited too long. Having said that, I do not think that Gore wants or wanted to run: he is having a great time playing Mr. Popular and working for causes he finds of the utmost importance.

“Do ideas matter in this election?” is another one of those questions I have frequently asked myself. I often think they do not matter much at all. Slogans matter, or so it seems, ideas do not. On the other hand, sooner or later voters will have enough of the sloganeering and they will want to hear something substantive. Balz points out that none of the candidates have tried to present real ideas, though, except for perhaps John Edwards – who failed to present himself as the idea-man.

Please click here to read more at The Gazette.