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Month 53 of the War By the Numbers
As far as the war in Iraq is concerned, the trouble with September for the Bush administration is that August has to come first.
This means the good news in the run-up to the anxiously awaited Petraeus-Crocker progress report gets upstaged by the bad news: Negligible decreases in U.S. and Iraqi casualties despite all of the spinning about how much better things are.
Please click here for the monthly war wrap-up at Kiko’s House.
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7 Responses to “Month 53 of the War By the Numbers”
Ahhhh….numbers with no context. In order for your post to make any sort of rational argument, the numbers require a context. For example, you could compare the numbers of US troop deaths during the war with the number of deaths during peacetime, etc…. Mentioning the number of troops deployed would also be helpful.
It would also be helpful for the readers if you would lay out your plan as to how to move forward from here and what the resulting tallies of deaths would be both by US troops and by Iraqi citizens. Of course, then you would probably demonstrate that your concerns are only political and that they have no relation to the number of US troops or Iraqis killed in any given month.
Shaun – Do you know off hand the figures for July and August 2006 and 2005. Using these figures as a comparison would be very helpful. The differences in the figures could indicate the success or failure of the surge.
Declining casualties over time would indicate surge success while increasing casualties would indicate failure.
Also summer time figures are generally lower than those in winter time due to the extreme summer heat. A comparison of winter versus summer is very misleading.
There is truth in the government’s claim that areas where our troops have been deployed have seen decreased violence and increased stability. But violence has erupted in areas where we do not have the troop strength to control it. Petraeus’ tactics work, but he would require a vast increase in troops to pacify all of Iraq. Those troops are not available and will not be available in the foreseeable future. The surge is thus, a temporary salve, at best. The question should be, what will happen when we are forced to start drawing down? Maliki has not been able to use the lull in violence to make the national government work in any effective way, and its not reasonable to believe that he will be able to do so in the future. If you look at the small picture, the troop increase has helped in some areas, but the big picture remains a quandary.
BTW, another post on this site details plans to dismantle Iraq’s security forces due to corruption and participation in sectarian death squads and start over. Our investment in Iraq is not paying off., if the national government is a failure and the police force is a total failure.
Not true. Don’t focus on casualty numbers: one of the main lessons of Vietnam.
It would be insightful to chart the troop levels, troop casualties, and the number of attacks. Just to see if the violence over time is dropping or just remaining the same. However, as MvdG just said, this won’t -by itself- mean success or failure in Iraq as that depends on a political reconciliation or reunification of Iraq.
I hate to be cynical but, I believe that whatever “lull” in violence that we’ve been able to create is going to be too short lived for any type of political resolution to occur. There is too much hatred between the factions for a month or two of a “lull” to reconcile.
Like others have said, the “Surge” is too little too late. There is too much blood in the streets now.
Not true. Don’t focus on casualty numbers: one of the main lessons of Vietnam.
Given the above statement, this post should be deleted. If you take out the casualty figures, what is left but political calculation.
Keeping tabs of the effects of this war should be important to anyone who is interested in following its course.
The casualy figures represent real people, and I hope we never become so callosed as to not want to know what they are just because it’s politically uncomfortable.
One can accept or reject a proposed significance for the numbers, but the numbers are important, nevertheless. There should be no forbidden facts, when we consider the costs.