GOP Conventional Wisdom Shift: Romney Can Win
Remember what I’ve often pointed out here and in my Cagle column about the conventional wisdom: it truly “in the moment” — the assured assertions that X, Y, and Z will happen or are very likely to happen. Now there is a conventional wisdom shift, one that will likely help shape the press and analysts narratives in the weeks to come. After months of privately and publically saying they didn’t think that now-presumptive Republican nominee could win, now GOPers think he can:
Top Republicans, long privately skeptical about their presidential prospects, are coming around to a surprising new view — that Mitt Romney may well win the White House this November.
Margin-of-error polling, fundraising parity last month, conservative consolidation around Romney and a still-sluggish economy has senior GOP officials increasingly bullish about a nominee many winced over during a difficult primary process…
Interviews with about two dozen Republican elected officials, aides, strategists and lobbyists reveal a newfound optimism that with a competent, on-message campaign, Romney will be at least competitive with a weakened incumbent. That’s a dramatic shift from the fatalistic view many party stalwarts shared mere weeks ago.
“Romney is a lot better off than I expected him to be this quickly,” said former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who cast a primary vote for Newt Gingrich. “A lot of people were concerned that Romney, with his being the least conservative of all the Republican candidates, was going to have to work hard to unite the party — that he would have a serious sales job on his hands. But President Obama has apparently taken care of that for him.”
Barbour said that after a gaffe-filled primary, he expected a bruised Romney “to start down but hopefully not by double digits.
“But that he’s this close has surprised and encouraged me — and I think it has encouraged Republicans around the country.”
There’s more so go to the link. Also, Howard Fineman, in a post called The Incidental Candidate, argues that Romney essentially is operating as kind of product, a front and that the real people in control would be Karl Rove and other GOPers. I’d also add that with the clear support he has from the Bush family, a President Romney would be particularly open to input from Republicans who were close to or served in the two past Bush administrations. The lingering problem is that Romney’s recent political behavior suggests he’d also do most of what the party’s far right wants him to do. But the people with their hands on the levers of power would likely be those associated with Rove and the Bush family.
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Are we really stupid enough to relive the Bush years through another GOP president? I just find that hard to believe.
The targeted voters to get elected are the 30-40% of the voters in the center. Up to 30% are liberal and would not vote anything but Democrat. Another 30% or so are far right and would not vote for anything other than Republican. That leaves what was once called Reagan Democrats and later soccer mom’s. Those individuals do vote for the positions of the candidates and who they believe will do the best job for the country, not some political views that will run the county off a clift, no matter which side they support.
Given that Romney is a Northeast Rockefeller type moderate Republican, one can understand why he has a chance to attract the centrist vote and win the Presidency. Just like Obama who ran to the left of Clinton and then moved to the center for the general election, Romney had to move to the right to win his nomination and is now back in the position he has always taken. It happens most any year the candidates have to run in primaries. And it seems like only the Republicans get the attention of doing this, even though both parties participate.
As for Romney running the country off a clift like Bush, one will have to wait for the outcome if he happens to get elected. Congress plays a decisive role in what happens and the next President will have a very different congress than Bush. And herein lies the problem. Few who will compromise for the good of the country on either side.
The only people on the right who doubted that Romney had a chance at winning are the right wing crazies that project their views and assume everyone else thinks like they do. Those of us towards the center have always understood that he’s the only GOP candidate at getting enough ‘center’ votes to challenge Obama.
Grab your popcorn folks this one’s going to be a doozy. I’m inclined to agree with Slamfu’s implication that people, even if they’re not happy with Obama, still have a bitter taste for the GOP.
I still say it all boils down to the unemployment rate in October…if we’re in the 7th percentile, I’d say this is enough to swing enough people to Obama as his approval ratings will rise with this. So really, what happens in Europe over the next few months, may end up deciding our election.
George W. Bush’s approval ratings two years after leaving office (2010) stood at 45% (I can’t find anything more recent). The notion that he was a particularly unpopular or disastrous President is far from universal.
As I predicted a few weeks ago, Romney’s own approval rating has skyrocketed, the only thing wrong with my prediction being that I figured it’d be up by at least 10 by end of June, but it’s up by over 15 points and it isn’t even June yet.
Expect a close race for sure.
Huxley, agree with you on unemployment, but that depend on how it happens. NC’s rate dropped, not because of more jobs, but those who had been drawing unemployment were not eligible for unenmployment benefits due to the trend which blocked the state from continued extended benefits. We still have the same number unemployed, but they are not part of the unemployment rate so NC’s rate dropped.
Slam, yes. RP and Huxley, sounds about right.