Does Levin Believe the Surge is Working or What?
There is something very interesting happening right now: Senators Levin – Democrat – and Warner – Republican – recently came back from a trip to Iraq and had some things to say about the surge. Certain newspapers and bloggers interpreted their words to mean that they – most notably Levin – believes the surge is working. Other bloggers argue the exact opposite. Since the two sides cannot possibly both be right, the question is who is right?
Let’s first take a look at their statement. Fox News quotes the two as follows:
We have seen indications that the surge of additional brigades to Baghdad and its immediate vicinity and the revitalized counter-insurgency strategy being employed have produced tangible results in making several areas of the capital more secure. We are also encouraged by continuing positive results — in al-Anbar Province, from the recent decisions of some of the Sunni tribes to turn against Al Qaeda and cooperate with coalition force efforts to kill or capture its adherents.
That sounds good, no?
But – still Levin argues that the troops should be withdrawn from Iraq starting in the next four months. The reason? (Think Progress): “The purpose of the surge, by its own terms, was to have the — give the opportunity to the Iraqi leaders to reach some political settlements. They have failed to do that. They have totally and utterly failed.”
In other words – if a military solution would have been possible, Levin would have changed his mind on the surge. However, since the final solution has to be a political one and since there is no progress made in that regard, he considers the surge as a whole to be a waste of time and resources (not to mention lives).
In other words – Think Progress is right. Levin believes that the military strategy is paying off in some regards, but it will not be enough.
Obviously Levin is right. The US can do whatever it wants to do, but as long as al-Maliki refuses to bring his country together, no real and lasting progress can be made.
Having said that, Sister Toldjah has a good point when she explains that “It makes no sense that he wants to start [withdrawing the troops], considering that in order to make political changes, the Iraq government will still need us to stay there in significant numbers for security reasons.” The surge is – obviously – not meant as political reconciliation: it is a military operation, aimed at oppressing the sectarian violence (and terrorism). Political progress has be made by politicians, not by the US army. For political progress to be made, military progress has to be made. I agree.
However, one can wonder how long it will take – for years we have heard “six months more.” When will the Iraqis start doing what they need to do? Another question that needs to be asked is what will happen once the US withdraws / the surge has ended? Won’t the terrorists simply come back? Or do the proponents of the surge believe that during the surge, the Iraqi army and police have to be made stronger so that when the US withdraws they can take over? Won’t that create a military society in Iraq with an angry population as a result?
Questions remain, but it is see interesting to see Democrats soften their tone a bit.
Cross posted at The Van Der Galiën Gazette.
6 Responses to “Does Levin Believe the Surge is Working or What?”
Sister Toldjah would have a point if there had been any sign of political progress. But to the contrary the situation has in fact deteriorated slightly. How long should we really wait for the slightest glimmer of progress? No, given the current complete lack of political progess Sister Toldjah’s point has no validity.
Like most vague notions of “success,” such a determination demands some specificity. WRT to the surge, it is both a success and failure. In the tactical and operational realm, it it showing some, but not complete, success. However, that has not translated into strategic success – the “political” (actually cultural) accommodation required to keep the country united.
In short the surge has done some of what it was militarily designed to do but this, so far, has not translated into strategic success.
The Surge is “working” toward what? While Congressman blather, a general on the ground is telling reporters on a DoD web site that our troops are dying to keep a lid on “a mixture of extremist elements and terror elements and criminal activity.” Where and how do they end that?
http://ajliebling.blogspot.com/2007/08/buying-words-with-blood.html
As I’ve remarked here before, regardless of the fact that political reconciliation seems out of reach, I think it is very important for the country to acknowledge the tactical military success portion of COIN operations. It is the difference between 150,000 men and women coming home and getting on with their lives vs. signing them up for 10 years of mental funk.
casual,
I don’t understand what you mean. We need to tell the soldiers that they did a fine job just so they’ll feel good about themselves?
Michael’s larger point is absolutely right. In fact, as Abu Aardvarck has observed elsewhere, the political strategy and the military surge tactics operate at cross purposes. The surge is openly arming non-governmental Sunni militias who agree to fight Al Qaeda. The Shi’ite-led central government knows that those weapons will be used against them in a civil war (as they already do). Yet, all of this is supposed to demonstrate short-term success just because the Sunnis in Iraq turned against the Saudis in their midst. This is surreal.
I doubt that Maliki is refusing to bring his country together. I suspect that he’d like to unify, but he’s in over his head. What I see happening is a future government led by Al-Sadr, who is currently biding his time. It’s Bush’s worst nightmare, but he knows it will happen after he leaves office.