http://www.juancole.com/2007/08/thousands-of-sadrists-protest-sinjar.html

Scroll down to the letter from “IvoryBill” on Sinjar-Kirkuk connection.

Short answer? Most likely it’s ex-Ba’athists looking to avenge the Yazidis for Sunni expulsions from the region. AQI is often a cover for ex-Ba’athists who have the real military capability to launch SBVIEDs. All of this is part and parcel of a budding war of expulsion centered around Kirkuk. There’s a lot of interesting detail in this piece that fills in the players in the Sinjar region going back to the 1970s.

“This Thing”
CNN:

The women are too afraid and ashamed to show their faces or have their real names used. They have been driven to sell their bodies to put food on the table for their children — for as little as $8 a day.
…
* I don’t think that one could obtain entrance to the cat-house that I found without being accompanied by an Iraqi who is close to the owner–I think the guy who owns the place is the brother of my driver. I tried to go back solo and the IP would not let me in the complex. I may have been lucky by finding some whores but I sure as hell was not three days ago when my convoy was shot up. This place is not for me–no matter how many hazard, post, and 6th day bumps I get. My first foray out into the Red Zone—or the National Zone as it’s now called —will be my last. Good luck to all you men that remain.

* Damn the IED’s, ana# sex with Persian girls makes it worth it.

Scenario: China invades the U.S. on a false pretense. As society collapses during the botched occupation, Chinese troops and civilian contractors post excitedly on the internet, speculating about our various religions and the implications for personal hygiene and trading tips about all the desperate, formerly middle-class American women they’ve bagged for a few bucks a pop. You’d react how, exactly?

Anyone want to argue that our national soul, or what’s left of it, can endure another five or ten years of this?

Characteristics observed from afar don’t amount to much. I’d wait for some evidence before I just swallow the government’s story.

C’mon Chris. I ask you, name one insurgent organization in Iraq that has the demonstrated capability to engineer and pull off this attack besides AQI? This isn’t just “swallowing the government’s story.” Are there any independent terrorism experts claiming this is anything but AQI?

Skepticism is fine as long as it is evenly applied and one does not pick and choose when to be skeptical.

(ed. note–but isn’t CFR supposedly a front for the neocons and Cheney was a member? or do I have my acronyms mixed up?)

I agree, Cordesman reads like a pretty knowledgeable dude. I don’t however read him as ready to denounce Petraeus or the surge, just that more has to happen politically to claim it a success.

OK, fair enough, nobody on my side should be claiming it a “success” per se, but similarly, I don’t see the credible support to label it a “failure” either.

We can honestly debate how long we should wait on the Iraqis or how much money we should continue to spend in the interim…….on those two points there is room for rationale debate.

As usual, Chris, you’re completely wrong. This kind of attack is characteristic of AQI.

Characteristics observed from afar don’t amount to much. I’d wait for some evidence before I just swallow the government’s story.

I’m not claiming anything one way or the other, but I think skepticism is necessary, especially toward the claims of our “slam-dunk” government.

I thought Iraq was home to WMDs that were threatening the United States from halfway around the world. Now they can’t even blow themselves up without Al Qaeda?

As usual, Chris, you’re completely wrong. This kind of attack is characteristic of AQI. Iraqis can blow themselves up, true, but only AQI has the demonstrated capability to pull off an attack of this nature, complexity and magnitude.

Sam,

You sure about that? Doesn’t AQI target Shiite civilians and US military mostly and not Kurds? I think the jury is still out on who is responsible. The various insurgent grps have had plenty of time to hone their civilian killing techniques.

Yes I’m sure. AQI attacks anyone who doesn’t subscribe to their salafistic notions. They murdered many Sunni’s in Anbar, but their mass-casualty attacks are reserved for others. There’s no other group that has demonstrated anywhere near the capability to conduct this type of attack. Add to that their threats specifically aimed at this group beforehand and it doesn’t take a genius to determine who is responsible.

The various insurgent groups (other than AQI and those closely affiliated with it) have NOT demonstrated the capability to conduct this type of attack, nor have they targeted the Yazhdi specifically.

http://www.cfr.org/publication/10208/cordesman.html
http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,3994/type,1/
http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_experts/task,view/type,34/id,3/

The second link gets you to the reports page, theere is a summary and link to a PDF file.

You sure about that? Doesn’t AQI target Shiite civilians and US military mostly and not Kurds? I think the jury is still out on who is responsible. The various insurgent grps have had plenty of time to hone their civilian killing techniques.

“It would not be good enough for the antiwar/antiBush haters. They would dissect it, find fault and blog it into the ground.”

Actually it would be good enough. If this president was able to produce any results, ANY AT ALL, or even just be smoother about slapping us in the face with his constant “Mushroom treatment” of the US public, we’d give him some credit. If this surge in Baghdad does in fact have lasting effects and provide the security necessary for a normally functioning city he will get his props. But first he’s going to have to convince the majority of americans its not just more BS like what we’ve been getting fed these last few years.

You can’t be serious here. Tell me, what other organization has demonstrated the capability to conduct complex, large, multiple SVBIED mass-casualty attacks in Iraq?

I thought Iraq was home to WMDs that were threatening the United States from halfway around the world. Now they can’t even blow themselves up without Al Qaeda?

I agree that Petreaus and Crocker should report directly to Congress and I would hope Congress insists on it.

I am fairly confident that this entire controversy is a tempest in a teapot and much ado about nothing. I don’t think that the President can prevent a military commander from testifying directly to Congress even if he wanted to. I think the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Act is quite explicit on that point.

I agree that Petreaus and Crocker should report directly to Congress and I would hope Congress insists on it.

First of all, no evidence has been provided that Al Qaeda is the culprit.

You can’t be serious here. Tell me, what other organization has demonstrated the capability to conduct complex, large, multiple SVBIED mass-casualty attacks in Iraq? There’s only one group with such a capability and the methodology employed in this latest attack points directly at what is still called AQI. Add to that the previous salafist attacks on the Yazdhi’s and recent “night letters” and other threats against them by and the charge of “no evidence” is pretty specious.

Secondly, Cockburn correctly notes that suicide bomb attacks in the capital actually have gone up:

“In reality, the number of car bombings in Baghdad in July was 5 per cent higher than last December and civilian casualties in explosions have increased by about the same percentage.”

I haven’t seen any statistics on car-bombings in Baghdad and the article doesn’t point to any. Do you have a source for this claim?

It appears to me that Cordesman, at least on the military operation question, dishes up the usual sleight of hand……..

Well, let me preface what I’m going to say by saying that I think we have many elements of a strategy that I think may work in Iraq. But if we look back on why we went to war,

Here we go again………let’s rehash the past.

Petraeus has been abundantly clear to me that, without political reconciliation, the COIN strategy……as a whole……is doomed. Who is left in the US that is denying that?

So, maybe Cordesman should critique the political coalition building? Well, again, he comments amount to “it hasn’t been done well”, but then hastens to applaud the efforts of the current Ambassador.

In substance……..other than the 4 or 5 paragraphs devoted to how we screwed up in 2003, 2004 and 2005, Cordesman seems to come up with nothing more than the Iraqis are not performing well enough. OK, fair enough, but if that’s the insight that gets one a high pay think tank job, I think I could qualify for that job too.

Bush could announce the war is over. We won. The Insurgents laid down their arms and have agreed to work with us to rebuild Iraq and the Middle East into a model region of stability and prosperity. OBL surrendered. Peace rules the earth. Nirvana has arrived.

It would not be good enough for the antiwar/antiBush haters. They would dissect it, find fault and blog it into the ground.

The problem with this administration is that they are clueless as to how to rule, given the internet and 5 billion blogging critics. They just have no clue what to do with people Like Shaun Mullen all over their back for any and everything they attempt to do.

Secrecy has not been any more pronounced in this administration then secrecy in any administration that has preceeded. It simply has been much more pronounced with a billion bloggers daily magnifying the cracks in this administration and turning them into gaping holes.