Ames Straw Poll
Before I spend attention to the poll itself, I would like to say that my thoughts are with Congressman Ron Paul and especially his wife. Earlier today, Mrs. Paul was hospitalized. The reason is unknown – at this moment. The campaign only said that she “became ill this morning and was taken to an area hospital. She appears to have stabilized and is awaiting treatment. Dr. Paul is with her and will arrive at the Straw Poll when the situation permits.”
My thoughts are with the both of them.
On to the race: Chris Cillizza has a post up about the expectations. He writes:
Mitt Romney: No matter what his campaign says, this is a big day for the former Massachusetts governor. Polling in Iowa shows him with a comfortable lead over his rivals, and his campaign has spent more than seven figures campaigning to do well in the straw poll, and it shows. Expect his campaign to declare victory if they are able to match the 31 percent of the vote President Bush received at this event in 1999. A convincing win virtually ensures Romney is the story coming out of the straw poll, a development that should help him cement support in Iowa and build momentum elsewhere. A narrow win, however, could damage his prospects. The question is how big is big enough?
Romney isn’t the only one who invested big time in Iowa: Sam Brownback did the same. “Reports that Brownback had 100 buses packed with supporters coming to Ames certainly raised our eyebrows.” Chris writes that “if he doesn’t place second or — maybe — third, it’s hard to see how Brownback justifies going on.”
About Governor Mike Huckabee Chris writes that he – Huckabee – wants to finish behind Romney and before Brownback. If he does not finish before Brownback, it will be a major disappointment for the former Governor of Arkansas and his supporters. “The two men have been battling for several weeks for the votes of social conservatives, and this is a crucial test to see who has more appeal in that voting bloc.” The only problem: “while Huckabee’s poll numbers are certainly moving up in Iowa, it’s not clear that he has the sort of organization that can turn those supporters out today in Ames.”
The last one I find noteworthy (really, who cares about Tancredo, Thompson and Hunter?) is Ron Paul. Chris labels him the “X-factor” in the straw poll.
Click here to read more (of my own thoughts on the straw poll and especially Ron Paul) at my own blog.
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3 Responses to “Ames Straw Poll”
Since 1972, hasn’t everybody, except President Bush in 2000, who won this poll lost the general election?
Well, a large portion of the country would claim the Bush really did lose in 2000. But the political process played out the way it did, and now we are where we are today.
I would say that if Romney doesn’t win by a significant margin, that it would be a major defeat for him. Since several of the leading candidates are not participating, anything other than a large (15-20%) victory would be a defeat for Romney, in my opinion.
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