As Basra Goes So Goes Iraq
Today’s Iraq war cold shower is brought to you by the British.
Despite its years-long efforts to stabilize Basra in southern Iraq, the Royal Army is watching Shiite militias fill the power vacuum being created as its troops draw down by escalating their rivalries in a violent effort to control the region’s rich oil resources.
And while you’re toweling yourself off after that shower, prepare yourself an even colder one:
Basra was once considered a success story, just like the White House is wishfully putting out the message that the surge also will be a success.
But the pattern emerging in Basra may well be the same nationally if elements of the Shiite-dominated national government (which has no Sunni ministers at the moment, as well as a Parliament away at summer camp) turn on one another when U.S. troops begin withdrawing.
This is because, for the umpteenth forking time, a military success is empty without a political success, and political success becomes more elusive the longer that U.S. troops – the Mother of All Flash Points – remain in country.
Let’s review the British phased withdrawal plan in Basra, which in reality is the endgame for the U.S.’s most steadfast Coalition partner.
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7 Responses to “As Basra Goes So Goes Iraq”
“The biggest reason for these reversals of fortune is that a war that Bush started but has been unable to finish was been backed to the hilt by Blair and is now widely viewed as an unmitigated disaster. (Some 165 Brits have died in the conflict, a far cry from the 3,679 Americans, but substantially more any of the 18 other Coalition nations, which have suffered a total of 129 deaths.)”
Yup. And to put this into perspective: The Falklands war claimed 258 casualties. Add the 68 deaths in Afghanistan to the british bloodletting in the ‘war on terror’ so far
[ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/5121552.stm ]
and those 233 fallen troops are very close to those historical numbers. Also, while the Falklands war actually ended with an accomplished mission, today this end isn’t really in sight, and there’s still more bloddletting ahead. No wonder the British public insists on cutting down on the engagement.
Note that the Brits will stay in Afghanistan for the continuing hunt for the Taliban and Al Quaeda. Well, if only Bush would be as reasonable, too, and focus on the fight against the real enemies…
To splash on some more cold water, Basra is Shia on Shia violence. While sectarian, it not the religious blood letting all the pundits warn about. While leaving will be messy, Ted Galen Carpenter and Colonel Gary Anderson tell us otherwise and go on deaf ears. MSM ignores these two while Kristol and O’Hanlon are reliable sources for our future in Iraq(?).
Steven Vincent was murdered two years ago warning about the rising chaos of militias, but the narrative was Basra as a model for Iraq. Lets not forget how the British had to storm the Basra police station when militia (not insurgents) used it as a torture chamber. Operation Sinbad failed along with Operation Together Forward, which Presidental candidate will get us out of Iraq after Hillary’s failure to get out after winning in 2008?
There is, of course, a cautionary tale here for withdrawal from Iraq as a whole. The country will fracture into myriad pieces once the US withdraws from Iraq as a whole. This is a major indictment of the whole occupation project. We have done nothing to establish the sort of political institutions necessary to sustain the country once we lift the lid off the pot. Alas, we are stuck with a decision: permanent occupation and war against US troops (unsustainable given our own military limits) or pull out and let the logic of civil war play itself out without us.
Shaun – Is TMV going to zero tolerance on “dirty” words?
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They will wait until we leave and this scene will repeat itself over the entire country. They have no choice, they live there while we are ultimately tourists with guns who will someday go home. Might as well leave now. No one in that country who matters wants what Bush wants for Iraq. Let the bloodshed burn itself out and when Iraq is once again an actual nation the process of fixing the region can truly begin instead of pursuing this rediculous pipe dream of a democratic Iraq.
“No one in that country who matters wants what Bush wants for Iraq.”
Good point. Let’s remember what Bush wants: He wants a country that is dominated by 60+% Shiites who suffered under Sunni Saddam to have a democratically elected ‘unity’ (including Sunni and Kurds) government that is friendly towards the US but not towards Shiite Iran. There are even more problems to it, like an amnesty for members of Saddam’s party, but even this general picture shows that this is a wild dream. And it already was in 2003. It’s simply idiotic.