As Basra Goes So Goes Iraq

Today’s Iraq war cold shower is brought to you by the British.

Despite its years-long efforts to stabilize Basra in southern Iraq, the Royal Army is watching Shiite militias fill the power vacuum being created as its troops draw down by escalating their rivalries in a violent effort to control the region’s rich oil resources.

And while you’re toweling yourself off after that shower, prepare yourself an even colder one:

Basra was once considered a success story, just like the White House is wishfully putting out the message that the surge also will be a success.

But the pattern emerging in Basra may well be the same nationally if elements of the Shiite-dominated national government (which has no Sunni ministers at the moment, as well as a Parliament away at summer camp) turn on one another when U.S. troops begin withdrawing.

This is because, for the umpteenth forking time, a military success is empty without a political success, and political success becomes more elusive the longer that U.S. troops – the Mother of All Flash Points – remain in country.

Let’s review the British phased withdrawal plan in Basra, which in reality is the endgame for the U.S.’s most steadfast Coalition partner.

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