Republican Party May Face Serious Youth Vote Gap
A new survey indicates the Republican Party is now facing a major long-term problem: there is an increasing gap between its policies and youth.
A new Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey finds young people “profoundly alienated from the Republican party and its perceived values.”
Key finding: “Young people react with hostility to the Republicans on almost every measure and Republicans and younger voters disagree on almost every major issue of the day.”
In the presidential race, “both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama lead Rudy Giuliani — the most acceptable of the Republican offerings among youth — by significant margins. The President’s standing is substantially worse, to the degree that is possible, than we find in the broader electorate. Moreover, the disconnect we see between the Republicans and our nation’s youth runs so deep, that it likely will not only outlive the Bush administration, but potentially haunt the Republicans for many years to come.”
This echoes a poll last month that showed that liberals are now gaining among young people.
This latest study should be be troubling news for the GOP, indeed. From the standpoint of Republicans, some will suggest this means the party needs greater outreach, more convincing explanations to young voters about its positions, and more dynamic young candidates.
John McCain was highly popular among young people in 2000 but that was when he wasn’t trying to win over Bush supporters, the party’s establishment and social conservatives. But his shift in campaign for 2008 basically made him one more Republican candidate — and he can never be confused with being a young person.
Political parties have a feel and when Ronald Reagan took over, the Dems just felt old, divided and tired to many voters. Ditto (excuse the word) when Bill Clinton won the Presidency after George Bush (41) gave a preview of the kind of popularity ratings that his son would later enjoy in the Oval Office.
If this is a trend that continues — and it’s hard to see how it won’t given the unpopularity of the Iraq war (I know of one 16 year old who said he’d be interested in serving in the military “but not while George Bush is President”), headlines about an executive branch power grab, the controversy over Attorney General Alberto Gonzales’ at-odds-with-others testimony — the GOP should be concerned. All the more reason for thoughtful people within that party to move heaven and earth to “clean house” within their party and get some new people into key positions — an preferably some of them young people.
And that brings into question the wild card.
Rep. Ron Paul is quite popular with some young voters. His appeal, as seen in this video, is he’s not talking the usual party talking points. Will he defy the talking heads and conventional wisdom and do better in the primaries that many expect? Are there enough Republican Party members who think his way to make it happen?
But the primaries are short-term. What last month’s poll and this study suggest is that (a) in numbers Republicans could start seriously decreasing and (b) some of what they advocate will be outside of the political conventional wisdom as the inevitable evolution begins — an old world and an old culture steadily dies off, replaced by a new one. If these indications prove correct, time may not be on the GOP’s side.
23 Responses to “Republican Party May Face Serious Youth Vote Gap”
Seems pretty straighforward (unlike much of politics) to me, and it’s encouraging to see that young people are able to sniff out the gap between rhetoric and reality we’ve seen in recent years. Now… if only they would step up to the voting booth!
Going strictly anecdotal here (like the pro-mil, anti-Bush 16 yr old):
A very good friend related to me today that his high school soph son has figured out how to game the gaming of the game by stenographing his AP (Advanced Placement) Chemistry teacher’s classroom climate change pronouncements, while simultaneously being savvy enough to know there are competing scientific opinions.
That said, I voted for McGovern when I was a univ. Frosh. Then I received (via loans, non-govt financial aid, washing gym shorts and dining hall dishes) a very good, in the truest Burkean sense, “liberal” education, a job, and a tax bill.
Another reasons why the U.S. will soon be a one party state.
Since the 20 somethings are the least white cohort of adults, they are going to be the most hostile to Republicans. Almost all non-white voters feel more comfortable in a one party state than in a system of competing parties.
The Republicans are probably going to lose badly in 2008 and be routed in 2012. That means that the Republicans will be totally irrelevant by 2016. Image what the U.S. political system will be like when the Democratic primary is the only relevent election. The next president after Senator Clinton will be decided almost a full year before the inaugural.
SD-The white 20-somethings are voting Democrat also- in response to 7 years of Bush policy.
Also, if the Democrats screw up or there’s another terrorist attack on home soil, the GOP can pull out the national security ace -in- the -hole and win by fear-mongering as they did in ’04 and tried to do in ’06.
The voting patterns of places like Detroit, Newark, DC, LA, St Louis, Baltimore should be able to convince anyone that the core Democratic voters will never vote the ruling party out no matter how incompetnet their performance, how bad crime becomes, or how bad government services are. That is one of the reasons that the U.S. will become a one party state.
Also, if you look at the polling, white 20 somethings are about 50/50 Democratic/Republican. It is every other ethnic group that will never vote Republican.
Younger voters have always voted slightly more liberal than their parents. I doubt they are as radical/liberal as their smelly hippie parents and grandparents from the sixties. Don’t worry SD, the young don’t even bother to vote.
Maybe another problem is this incompetents record has lost the independents and Reagan Democrats. Being from SE Michigan, I doubt if any generations from infant to the elderly embrace the Party of Reagan in Macomb County. The Republicans are even losing ground in Oakland County.
The part that hits me the hardest, is they “react with hostility,” does that make anyone think they’re being taught to only see one view? Although this fits with most 18 year olds I know now, they are adamantly against seeing two sides to any issue, ever.
‘Maybe another problem is this incompetents record has lost the independents and Reagan Democrats. ‘
Which is why all of the Republican candidates are competing to see who can reenact Reagan in the debates, rather than running as themselves or continuing the ahem Bush ‘legacy’. The Reagan years were the Republicans’ glory days, and they are dying for the second coming to lead them out of the sinkhole Bush/Cheney have put them in.
Its ironic because just last year, I worried about Bush and Rove establishing a permanent GOP majority! Seems incomprehensible now.
Maybe some of our informed commenter’s should have read the survey. To be “fair and balanced”(LOL), KR injects BDS and SD quotes David Duke, but these issues weren’t what pushed the survey. Young people don’t hate W and racial inner city issues aren’t pushing the 20 somethings jumping ship. The problem for Republicans and the youth are why the midwest Rustbelt went from Republican to Democratic govenors, to quote Clenis – “it’s the economy stupid”. From the actual survey:
Like their parents, it isn’t teh gays or Terry Schiavo, it’s the ECONOMY. Go read the survey before you blame – Detroit, Newark, DC, LA, St Louis, Baltimore hip hop gangsters – all but one of these cities are Rust Belt.
While their progressive views on social issues might not drive their votes it would still have an effect. It means that the Republican running for office and counting on attacks on gays or appeals to anti-choice views won’t appeal to them and would have at least a slight alienating effect.
If the economy really meant anything to voters, the Democrats would have been voted out in Michigan long ago. My argument about pointing out the voting trends in the urban centers of the rust belt is that performance has much less affect on Democratic voters than Republican voters because there are many demographic groups that will vote for the Democrats no matter what.
It is naive that bad performance bad democratic politicians means that they will be voted out of office. Remember, Marion Barry is still serving as a city councilman in Washington, DC.
What everyone needs to realize that there will come a time sometime betwee 2112 and 2025 when the demographic changes of the U.S. means that the Republicans will be incapable of getting a majority of the voters no matter what they do. The survey reinforces that scenerio.
SD your paranoia regarding the “inevitable” one party state rule is amusing. For one thing, I love how you just throw out there:
And your proof of this is….? That they like democrats more than republicans? That does not constitute proof that they don’t like two party rule, just that they don’t like the republican party!
No, two party rule will be fine (though more than two parties would be better). In part, the young will become older and more conservative. In addition, parties can change. The democratic party is considered vaguely left in the US, but would be considered centrist in Europe. Likewise, the democratic party of the 50s would consider the GOP of today radically liberal (they have a black woman as secretary of state for Gods sake!). The GOP may move away from many of the socially conservative positions to more fiscally conservative ones. Give the dems 8-16 years to become comfy and spend to their hearts desire, and you may find people much more open to the GOP….tomorrows GOP.
SD – You always seem to big issues down to urban cities and race. The Reagan Democrats of Macomb County and soccer mom Oakland County abandoned Bush and Engler for their attack partisan politics and the fact that the Republican candidates in Michigan were weaker than a senile Bob Dole. Grandholm is perceived as a moderate, she isn’t from the Edwards/Bonior wing. What about Penn and Ohio?
Lynx,
You should look up how Cynthia McKinney, the bigoted former Congresswoman from Georgia was voted out of office. Blakc voters had almost nothing to do with it. They were quite happy to repeatedly vote for her. The same goes for Marion Barry, Coleman Young, etc. If you look at the Black Congressional Caucus, not only are they are Democratic, almost none of them are ever challenged for re-election even though most of them represent some of the worst neighborhoods and some of the poorest parts of the U. S.
The belief that bad government or poor performance will affect the way blacks (and Hispanic vote) is not shown in the real world test.
In 16 years, the percentage of the voters who are white will be much smaller than it is today and the percentage of voters who are black, hispanic, and asian will be much larger. That means that in 16 years, the Republicans will need to win at least 60 percent of the white vote to win and that is just not going to happen.
Besides, the contributions will dry up well before that. Why do people think that people will keep giving to the Republicans if they are totally out of power for multiple election cycles. Any organization or individuals who interacts with the government cannot afford to contribute to the losing side for very long. That is why the Democrats will be the only relevent party much faster than just demographics would have caused.
SD – Until the 2006 election the Republicans controlled the Legislature in Michigan. Michigan voted out the Sanctorum wing in all but the West in Michigan. Ohio and Penn followed the same pattern. What about Tester in Montana, is urban Democrats responsible for his victory. Or could corrupt bad Republican incumbents in Montana,Ohio and Penn be the answer.
Rudi,
My argument is that it is not all voters that change between the two parties during an election but only the white voters. Blacks, Hispanic, Asian, and Jewish voters always vote overwhemingly for Democrats. As those portions of the population grows, relative to whites it makes the Republicans job harder. Considering that many white voters are government employees, university employees, union members, homosexual or other groups that vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, there will come a time that the Republicans will not be able to get 50% of the vote no matter what they do.
The 20 something natural sense that there is no future in the Republican Party or conservative politics because it has no chance of winning. Look at the suggestions that the only way for the Republicans to survive is to become Democratic-lite. I doubt that would work because they would make all elections about personality while the blacks, hispanics, asian, and jewish voters will still automatically vote for Democrats while the white vote is split 50/50 between two parites.
In the long run, there is no way for any two party system to exist as long as blacks, hispanics, and asians (to a lesser extent) always vote for Democrats.
SD – You seem to be a free market paleo-Conservative. Please address the fact that the Republicans are putting out bad product/candidates. If after 8 years the Hillary wing allows the same mess the consumer will change brand. STOP injecting racism into the debate. Your rants would be welcome at V-Dare.
http://www.vdare.com/
I suggest a link to Steve Sailor…
I would suggest that there are also many white voters who vote Republican no matter what their candidates do. Denny Hastert was involved in the Foley mess and was being investigated for Abramoff in ’06, but was from a safe district and had no problem getting reelected. Both parties have districts that have been gerrymandered so that they reliably go one way or another. Sorry to burst the racial stereotypes.
kritter,
Sorry but there are just not many district as Republicans as many of the Democratic districts. If you ever want to understand politics look at the 2004 election map that shows the differences between Republicans and Democrats. The biggest win that the Republicans had was just over 250K votes in Phoenix whereas there were at least ten counties where the Democratic votes exceed the republican votes by more than 500K. I believe in 2006 at least 50 Democratic Congressman that did not have any opponents.
If you look at national elections, the worst Republican candidates would get about 35% of the vote. The worst Democratic candidate would get about 45% of the vote. Karl Rove thought he had a plan to get most of the 20% of the voters who are swing voters.
What the Republicans know but will not admit and what the 20 somethings have begun to realize is that the demographic groups that are in that 45% are growing much faster than the demographic groups in the 35%. Soon the worst Democratic candidate will be able to get 50% of the vote no matter what. They will give the Democratic party the ability to elect Marion Barry or someone like him if they want. That will make the Democratic Primary the only relevent election.
If you think that the Republicans can change enough to remain relevent just look at the immigration bill. karl Rove wanted to reach out to Hispanics and all he managed to do is alienate white middle class voters and kill Republican fund raising.
SD Please name three Republican candidates that qualify as moderates and successful like Webb, Tester and Schuler. And on C McKinney, she lost her seat for a couple of years.
Your racist attack on a bad politician misses the point that Georgia voters kicked her out in 2002. What about Mrs Sonny Bono, does she study foreign relations with Chuck Hagel?
When McKinney last lost her office it was not even in a general election. In a district that is heavily Democratic and 60% black she lost a primary run-off election. The results were
Somehow I just don’t see that as blacks willing to vote for her no matter what.
I don’t believe that it will become a one party system, but the GOP is in deep dew. Even before this slide, the party lost all major cities, most towns over 50,000 people, most Hispanics, most Blacks, most women and now most young people. What a perfect storm of arrogance, deceit and divisiveness. What ham-handed incompetence. The Bush regime had as little regard for the sustainable future of the party as for the sustainable future of our children. They have truly alienated almost everyone.
Even Cynthia McKinney knows that it was cross over whtie Republicans who voted her out of office. See http://www.disinfo.com/site/displayarticle16778.html