Negotiations would be with Lebanon (where Hezbollah is represented in the government).

It would all be a long shot and even the tiniest progress could not be achieved without outside (UN?) help. I feel it would be good for Israel’s image to make an attempt, however,even if it fails.

The Palestinians are a mess, but as long as Abbas is the president, he can negotiate, at least concerning the West Bank.

No miracles will be forthcoming, I’m sure. Giving up seems like the worst choice, though, now that the international community is paying attention again. Keeping hope alive is one way to try to stop deterioration.

Personally, I think negotiating with Hezbollah would be to recognize they are a quasi-nation entity separate from lebanon. How can Israel negotiate with Hezbollah unless Lebanon is included? What Palestinian leader has the authority and cachet to speak for a majority of the Palestinian people? I don’t see one.

Waiting is probably the best course of action at this point.

What is important is that Israel not depend on waiting uutil everyone moderates, gambling everything on the porssibility that moderation will, in fact, occur. The flip side of that gamble is that things could equally possibly get much worse.

I think there should be movement of some sort, an attempt. It would give Israel an opportunity to showcase its sincerity in wanting to resolve some of the issues causing the most damage to its reputation. If nothing comes of it, then nothing comes of it. The attempt, however, would be on record. If opponents don’t show an equal willingness to tackle these issues seriously, then that would be on record, too, for the world to see.

Waiting too long is as risky as jumping in without forethought, IMO.

PatHMV – The following link gives an excellent overview of the Shebaa Farms history and importance. Don’t be put off by the fact that it was written by a Syrian, this is just a compendium of information that can be found in bits and pieces elsewhere on the web.

Shebaa Farms

The Shebaa Farms, from what I understand, is such a worthless little corner of land that any claim by Hezbollah for it is clearly pretextual. The U.N. declared it Syrian, so I don’t see where Hezbollah has any right to complain about it.

Let me ask you this, Jeb. Are there any demands by terrorists that you think SHOULDN’T be acquiesced to?

Bones708 – You are correct Israel has turned over the old mine fields, however they have not yet turned over maps showing the fields showered with cluster bombs.

Looks like Hezbollah is “moving the goalposts!” Oh, you gave us the mine maps? What we really meant was the cluster-bomb maps!

I think Israel is making a mistake with it’s continual overflights – it is prohibited by UN resolution 1701 and does nothing but cause itself international grief. The overflights are made by fighter aircraft not reconnaisance aircraft – their purpose is intimidation. Israel has satellites and high flying reconnaisance aircraft to keep tabs on Hezballah and the Lebanese would never know they were there.

So overflights by recon aircraft and UAV’s is ok then?

Israel immediately after the cease-fire gave the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) maps indicating the likely locations of unexploded ordnance, to aid the international attempt to clear these areas and avoid injury to the population. However, these maps only showed the general location of unexploded ordnance and were not useful for systematic clearance of areas contaminated by cluster munitions. Immediately after the ceasefire, Israel distributed warning notices to the residents in the areas of warfare, and recommended that they wait a few days before returning to the south until the UNIFIL forces cleared the area of unexploded ordnance. Clearance experts have estimated that it will take 12-18 months to remove the immediate threat from unexploded ordnance from southern Lebanon.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_bombs

The issue with Shebba Farms ignores that the land was sized not from Lebanon at all Rather from Syria with the Golan heights in ‘67 and only after being occupied by Israel did Syria say it belong to Lebanon, though never officially of course. It ignores that no one lived on the “Farms” when they were taken and that it’s less than 10 square kilometres. That this is not a reason but rather just an excuse for continued violence.

As for the over flights being fighter of course they are. They are there and showing that they are there as a warning of what will happen if you fire a missile. If a missile goes up then they will come down. They are not there to track troop movements!

Again not so basic

I think Israel is making a mistake with it’s continual overflights – it is prohibited by UN resolution 1701 and does nothing but cause itself international grief. The overflights are made by fighter aircraft not reconnaisance aircraft – their purpose is intimidation. Israel has satellites and high flying reconnaisance aircraft to keep tabs on Hezballah and the Lebanese would never know they were there. Drop the cowboy stuff, like diving down on the French UN force.

Those 4 basic thing seem either made up or not real basic.

Using the mines as a bargaining tool would simply betray a barbarism on Israel’s part that would put them on the same level as the terrorist organizations whose tactics they claim to be above.

You end up with both sides saying: “Do we what want or we’ll blow you up.”

The erosion of support for Israel internationally is a major concern. As I think that support from abroad is vitally important, Israel needs to consider its image when it decides on strategies. Maybe a gesture demontrating good intentions re Hezbellah could help, especially as the land mines are the source of so much bad publicity.

It seems to me that beginning negotiations with the maps on the table as Israel’s part of the bargain is somehting that could be helpful long before the principals are old and gray.

However, that doesn’t preclude addressing the 4 “bleeding wounds”, well at least 2 of them. The minefields and overflights are strong, daily reminds to the Lebanese youth that Israel is a strong, non-friendly force in their lives, and I believe help maintain the growth of Hezbollah into the next generation. I think at least these two should be negotiated with Lebanon.

As to the US’s influence over Israel… It certainly has influence, and Allies use all sorts of influence on other allies ranging from gentle suggestion to ultimatums. The administration certainly doesn’t want to alienate Israel, and I don’t think it is a good idea to go into this threatening to remove funds from the start, but there are must gentle ways to suggest the same thing. Diplomatic tactics can always change if Israel isn’t seeing things eye to eye.

The real question in my mind is not whether Nasrallh is the immediate change type or the generational type. There is only one way to find out, try negotiations. I think Israel would be far better off if it could solve these issues soon rather than risk another generation bouncing from crisis to crisis.

You’re right that time is a great moderator. Even Arafat, to an extent, moderated, and so did Sharon.

Personally, I believe we must at least wait until the Palestinians unite around a leader with the moral authority to represent them in negotiations with Israel. I just don’t see how a solution there is possible while Palestine remains in a state of civil war.

Your point about Begin supports the point I’d made about the passage of time. Nearly 30 years passed between when he was commander of the Irgun and when he became Prime Minister of Israel. Basically, a generation.

That’s enough time for a lot of things to change—the people, the circumstances, the political pressures are all different.

The notion that Nasrallah, last year ordering the firing of rockets into Israeli towns, will this year sincerely seek peace is possible but unlikely. My experience has been that people keep doing what worked for them in the past long after it stops working. Your experience may be different.

But I have no doubt that in 20 or 30 years the circumstances and political pressures on Nasrallah will be different (if he’s still around). Can the Israelis wait that long?

Yes, I really think that. Allies typically don’t threaten each other to get them to do something they don’t want to do, and besides, most of the aid Israel receives is due to treaty obligations stemming from the peace with Egypt – which is why we give Egypt billions a year in aid too. Threatening that aid would be a threat to abrogate our treaty obligations. Notice we are not exactly threatening Egypt with cutting off aid even though it isn’t doing everything we’d like it to. There’s a sound reason for that.

And even were it desirable, Israel would not bow to such pressure on an issue that it considers vital to its survival as a nation. Certainly that is clear.

I find it strange that somehow the US is required to coerce Israel while at the same time provide free concessions to Israel’s enemies.

Now, if I thought handing over Shebaa, ending overflights, etc. was a good policy (which I don’t unless there is an adequate quid pro quo), then I would use the traditional methods of convincing allies – namely diplomacy and perhaps inducements and other positive measures – you know, the same things people keep suggesting we do with Syria, Iran et al.

The US cannot force Israel into making these concessions, nor should it try.

You really think that?

The U.S. gives Israel an enormous amount of military aid. All the U.S. has to do is say we won’t give you anymore aid if you don’t do X, Y or Z. Voila.

As for if the U.S. “should” try to force Israel’s hand, I would say it has an obligation to try, because of the enormous amount of aid Israel receives.

the United States must first address what Hezbollah’s leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, has long termed the “four bleeding wounds” that engender public support for his party’s use of violence against Israel.

Why must the US address these issues? The US cannot force Israel into making these concessions, nor should it try. We didn’t force a peace with Egypt – the two parties came to that on their own accord.

And the Shebaa Farms issue is interesting. Historically, it’s actually been Syrian land, not Lebanese, and Hezbollah has been using it as an excuse since Israel pulled out of Lebanon for further attacks. Even the UN long considered the area Syrian and not Lebanese, though it might change it’s mind. Why should Israel turn over land to “Lebanon” that almost no one in the international community believes is actually Lebanese?

At the very least an official, internationally-recognized demarcation of the border in that area is needed before Israel should turn it over to Lebanon. Right now the question of Shebaa is still in dispute.