Sabato’s Crystal Ball: SENATE ’08 UPDATE
As of yesterday, there were exactly 475 days left until Election Day 2008. Since the Crystal Ball’s last Senate update, filed exactly 600 days before the election, there have been a number of interesting developments that merit mention. To begin with, there will now be a total of 34 seats on the ballot, instead of the 33 originally planned. This, of course, is a result of Wyoming Senator Craig Thomas’s passing.
Per the Seventeenth Amendment and Wyoming state election law, newly appointed Senator John Barrasso will face a special election on the same day as the 33 “Class Two” Senators who are up for re-election in 2008. [Note to students: Since only a third of the Senate is up every two years, the senators were divided into three "classes", right from the beginning of the Republic, so that the elections could be properly staggered. Class Two comes up in 2008.] Whoever wins the election will inherit the rest of Thomas’s term which, as a Class One senator last elected in 2006, lasts until 2012. Those four years are almost as good as a whole term for entrenching an incumbent, so don’t expect Barrasso to get a completely free pass. Even though he will be a bit weaker than a typical incumbent in 2008, Barrasso is a substantial favorite in GOP-dominated Wyoming. His focus must be on pleasing conservative GOP activists in the Cowboy State. If not seriously opposed in the primary–and some of the big players like almost-Senator Tom Sansonetti (the GOP’s preferred choice for the seat who was not chosen by Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal) have pledged their support to Barrasso already–the new senator will be the favorite in November. However, Barrasso may–may–have to worry about a primary opponent, including top-three replacement candidate former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead, and Wyoming House Majority Leader Colin Simpson. As for the general election, Wyoming was the second Reddest state in 2004 and the Reddest in 2000, with Bush garnering 69% of the vote both times, so the odds of a Democratic takeover are still slim, especially since Governor Freudenthal has said he will not run.
What about the national picture? The Republicans will have to play defense with 22 seats, while the Democrats will be defending only 12. This disadvantage is lessened slightly when you take into account the large number of those seats that are considered to be safe or that will likely favor the incumbent’s party. When looking only at seats that the Crystal Ball considers to be “probably competitive”, however, the Republicans will still have to defend five seats and the Democrats only two. As of the moment, there has been just one announced retirement, Republican Senator Wayne Allard of Colorado, but more open seats could be on the ballot by Election Day, as at least four Republicans and one Democrat may be considering retirement. If the Republicans have to defend more open seats in November 2008 than do the Democrats, this would certainly put a damper on their hopes of regaining the Senate majority, a task that already appears considerable.
6 Responses to “Sabato’s Crystal Ball: SENATE ’08 UPDATE”
It’s looking more and more like Warner of Va will retire – he has something like $500 in his campaign chest. Sabato, being based there, certainly knows that but is playing the cards as they stand now.
In any case, should Warner retire, the Republicans may well lose the second Virginia Senate seat (Webb took Allen’s) to a different Warner – Mark Warner, the extremely popular ex-governor. That would be devastating to both the national and state party.
I’m thinking that may be part of why Gilmore dropped out early in the Presidential race- he’s the only potential candidate Republicans have that stands any chance of competing with Warner – and he’s not very popular among Virginians.
It’s too early to say, Holly, but the Democrats look to do well in 2008. They should just remember the failures by Gore in late 2000 (beginning with the debates, against Bush!) that enabled Bush to win.
They really should try not to be cocky because not only is Bush doing poorly now, but more importantly, the GOP candidates look bad.
Mark Warner would beat Gilmore hands down, but he might have more of a fight against George Allen if he decides to run again. Gilmore was an unpopular governor, who’s presidential candidacy was a joke- as he never raised any real money.
Does discussing the boring details of the 2008 election matter. It is not like the Democrats want to discuss anything that their primary candidates are saying other than to cheer for free medical care for all.
Starting in January 2009, the Democrats will have complete control. The only question is whether than either get 60 seats in the Senate or maybe get to 58/59 and then slip a RINO such as Snowe, Collins, or Specter.
Well, I happen to agree with a lot of the Democratic agenda that has been voted down or stalled in the Senate- stem cell research, revising the student loan program, reviving the Fairness Doctrine, expanding the medical insurance aid for working families’ children. So I don’t find their agenda boring at all if it will help to point this country in the right direction after 7 years going off course to reward rich Republican donors.
Of course, when the Democrats have complete control and 60 seats in the Senate (something the Republicans never had), it will be the even richer donors to the Democrats who benefit the most.