Immigration Reform Bill Survives Senate Vote: Suggests Bush Is (For Now) The Decider

Once again, it ain’t over ’till it’s over.

Dracula (the controversial bipartisan immigration reform bill) Has Risen From The Grave.

And, in a way, with this vote so has President George Bush.

The jokes about Bush really not being “The Decider” aren’t getting as many laughs today (unless you mention Dick Cheney’s name as a second punch line).

Polls show the immigration bill has managed to unify the country in the across-the-boards disatisfaction with it. But Bush and those in Congress have now had the last laugh by triumphing in a test vote on a bill that was widely believed to be history. But, now, with Bush’s constant cajoling being one of the factors, the bill is alive for another day.

But not before GWB put his foot firmly in his mouth:

ABC News’ Rick Klein reports: President Bush has spent a whole lot of time in recent months claiming that the immigration bill isn’t “amnesty.”

But in describing the measure Tuesday morning, an apparent slip of the tongue suggested otherwise — providing fodder for the talk-radio crowd that loathes the bill and wants it defeated in the Senate.

“You know, I’ve heard all the rhetoric — you’ve heard it, too — about how this is amnesty. Amnesty means that you’ve got to pay a price for having been here illegally, and this bill does that,” Bush said, according to the official White House transcript.

This just might get the attention of Lou Dobbs and Rush Limbaugh — and it’s terrible timing for the president, with a key vote in the Senate Tuesday afternoon.

UPDATE: At 11:43 am, White House Press Secretary Tony Snow released a statement saying the president “misspoke.”

But it really didn’t make any difference.

Because when the votes were counted this WAS a clear political victory for Bush, who has backed immigration reform in the face of a mini-revolt within his own party that is growing into a full-fledged revolt that could mean long range complications for the GOP, no matter what happens on the bill:

The Senate resurrected the immigration bill that could legalize millions of unlawful immigrants Tuesday, but the delicate compromise faces the same threats that derailed it earlier this month.

The White House and Republican and Democratic architects of the bill hailed the crucial test vote that revived the legislation, and they predicted approval of the measure by week’s end.

Their victory was fleeting, though, giving way just hours later to stalling tactics by GOP foes. Conservatives succeeded in delaying until Wednesday consideration of a package of amendments designed to pave the way for a final vote on the bill.

They did so by using Senate rules to insist that the entire 373-page package be read aloud, relenting only when Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., agreed to postpone action on the amendments.

That was just the first in a series of formidable obstacles lying in the bill’s path. The Senate is slated to consider 26 amendments, mostly from senators seeking to change key elements of the bill, that have the potential to either sap its support or draw new backers.

So it’s not over. And yesterday conservative talk radio was in Crisis Mode in full swing, urging listeners to go to websites, call Congress and clamor for a clamp-down on the bill on the next vote, and urging listeners to defeat Democrats and particularly Republicans who supported the bill.

And a lot more is to come. The New York Times:

The president and Senate supporters of the bill say it would go a long way toward securing America’s borders, helping illegal immigrants without granting them amnesty and organizing a guest-worker program that would benefit American businesses while helping immigrants. The bill’s opponents, including many Republicans conservatives, contend that it would grant amnesty no matter what its supporters say, and would not do enough to protect security.

Even if the Senate does pass an immigration bill, it will have to be reconciled with whatever measure the House passes. Putting together enough support for a bill in the House could be at least as difficult as it has been in the Senate, a political fact underscored by Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the Republican minority leader.

“There are large numbers of House Republicans who have serious concerns about the Senate bill,” Mr. Boehner said today. Just hours before the Senate vote, the House Republican Conference took up a resolution declaring that it disapproved of the Senate bill. The measure lost, 83 to 28.

The Senate debate before today’s cloture vote followed the lines that is has for weeks.

“It may not be perfect,” said Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Democrat of Massachusetts and a key backer of the bill. But over all, he said, it is “a good bill” and perhaps the last best chance for a long time to fix a broken system.

But a prominent critic of the bill, Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, urged his colleagues to “slow down and read this bill.” If Americans knew what was really in it, he said, they “could be forgiven for doubting the commitment of the federal government” about border security.

The Wall Street Journal:

Immigration reform stayed alive in the Senate yesterday, albeit not without continuing rancor among Republicans. Restrictionists seem to believe the issue will harm the GOP if it succeeds, but we think the political reality is closer to the opposite: The greater danger for Republicans is if it fails.

We’ve written often about the merits of immigration reform, and we have our own problems with parts of the Senate bill. But it’s worth spending some time on the larger politics of the issue, especially for Republicans. They’re caught between a passionate minority of their party — who oppose any reform that allows illegals a path to citizenship — and the larger electorate, which is more moderate and wants to solve the problem. Like Democrats on national security, this is a classic case in which pandering to the base will harm the GOP overall.

Depending on who you believe (and what you believe and want to believe) the bill’s passage or defeat will have some of these:

–If it’s defeated, the Republican party will wander in the political wilderness for years due to a loss of Latino voters throughout the country.
–If it passes, Republicans can start to regain some of the Hispanic votes it lost recently and Karl Rove and Bush’s dream of the GOP making inroads in appealing to this vital group of voters will be back on track.
–If it passes, the Republican party will in essence split apart with traditional conservatives, who are already unhappy about various aspects of the Bush administration, likely to sit home in 2008 or even seriously consider an appealing third party candidate unless the GOP’s nominee rejects the bill.
–If it passes, the Democrats could suffer by letting the Republican party take some of the credit for the new law.
–If it passes, the Democrats could benefit because most Hispanic voters won’t want anything to do with the Republican party and will vote Democrat.

Choose your theory according to your political ideology and discount the others as flawed.

HERE’S A CROSS SECTION OF OTHER VIEWS (excerpts so please read their entire posts):
–Andrew Sullivan on George Bush:”Mock him all you want, he’s pushing this bill forward. You can read the conniptions on the right here.”
–Taylor Marsh:

But this bill has never represented “amnesty” to me. It’s just a bad bill.

However, Republicans who are thinking only about their voting constituencies, and Democrats who actually believe this bill solves problems managed to get cloture on the bill to stop debate and move it forward. But it’s going to meet up with problems in the House. According to MSNBC and el Rushbo, House Republicans are working to get a measure passed denouncing the Senate bill.

Again, the only way to stop illegal immigration is to target employers. As for the fence, it’s simply ridiculous. All that money should instead be poured into hiring border agents, as well as utilizing technology along the border. Besides, if employers are truly targeted the illegal immigrants crossing over would come close to disappearing, with only the worst elements trying to cross over. The border agent manpower could then likely handle what today is untenable. As for the 12 million or so illegal immigrants here today, the obvious answer is allow them to stay and work towards citizenship through paying fines, learning English, background checks, etc. Do you call that amnesty, considering there are all sorts of hoops they have to go through to get their citizenship? If so, have at it.

–Powerline:

My overriding view at this time is that no immigration bill should pass any time soon. Reid’s amendments, amounting to well over 300 pages, could be a complete re-write of the original bill. I haven’t had time to read the amendments, and I’m not going to have time to read them. This bill should be broken up into its component parts, there should be hearings on each, and there should be an open amendment process as to every individual bill. Over the course of the next year or two, with proper deliberation and a reasonable public understanding of what the separate bills say, immigration policy can be revised through a democratic process. The present situation has been building for at least 21 years, since the last amnesty in 1986. We can afford to take a deliberate approach to setting immigration policy for the next generation.

–James Joyner:

Whether the bill constitutes “amnesty” is largely a semantic issue, as the facts are not in dispute, but that label has been used as a rallying cry by the president’s opponents.

The ability to remain in the country legally after having skipped to the head of the line illegally is an undeniable boon. The proposed fine is less than the price many have paid to the “coyotes” to be smuggled across, so it’s not exactly a “significant punishment.” Still, it’s not a blanket amnesty in the way Simpson-Mazzoli was.”

–Polipundit:

Of course, even when Bush is accidentally telling the truth, he’s lying. This bill gives instant amnesty to illegals without making them pay the $5,000. In the final bill, the $5,000 may buy a Z-visa or a path to citizenship, but make no mistake: 12 to 20 million illegals will get instant amnesty, and don’t expect to see 12 to 20 million $5,000 cashier’s checks.

Do they actually think we are stupid enough to believe they will start enforcing immigration laws against the vast majority of illegal aliens who can’t come up with $5,000?

–Secular Blasphemy:

I have followed the big debate over the troubled new immigration bill in the US, and am somewhat amused that the social-democratic government of Norway is far tougher on immigration than the Republican administration of the USA.

–Prestopundit:

I feel terribly sad for every American who has sent a loved one abroad to die for a President and Congress who have not and will not secure the country from terror attack — and are happily replacing them on the job and in the the voting booth with uneducated, low-wage foreigners, including gang members, convicted criminals, terror suspects, and drug runners.

–My Thought World:

Ted Kennedy’s immigration bill could have been killed yesterday, but now thanks to the “conversion” of politicians on both sides of the aisle, the bill got a stay of execution and will move to the Senate. With a majority of Americans firmly in opposition to this legislation, you have to wonder what’s driving it.

–Res Ipsa Loquitor:

We need to re-elect a new Senate, and build the goddamn wall already…..I find no comfort in advocating for enforcment when it should have been done already. Even the “hard working” illegals steal American jobs and their identities with forged documents. They are all criminals, so deport them all. My taxes are subsidizing my own displacement, and I am not taking it anymore. It’s time for tax revolt.

…I have been railing against illegal immigration since time immemorial, and have been called everything in the book: racist, xenophobe, cracker, right wingnut, etc. I’m am glad to finally see 80% of America can also be branded as “extremist” as myself. God bless the 80% of Americans who have as much sense as I do and can see how this government is destroying the country and its population with yet another amnesty.

–San Fransanity:

Sorry I haven’t written lately, but I’m back to make a quick pitch for saving this country from becoming a third-world hell hole….NumbersUSA has said that if the second cloture passes and the bill goes to a final vote, we will probably lose. We cannot let that happen!