New Poll: Romney Now Leading In Florida

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey is detecting a shift on the eve of what is expected to be a fireworks-packed Presidential debate in Florida: Rasmussen finds former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney now back on top in Florida:

Mitt Romney has jumped back ahead in the fevered Florida Republican Primary race with his support back to where it was before Newt Gingrich’s big win Saturday in South Carolina.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Wednesday night, shows Romney with 39% support to Gingrich’s 31%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earns 12%, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with nine percent (9%). Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here).

Four days ago, just after the South Carolina Primary, Gingrich led Romney 41% to 32%. Less than two weeks earlier, coming off Romney’s decisive win in the New Hampshire Primary, it was Romney 41%, Gingrich 19% in Florida. Santorum’s and Paul’s support has remained largely the same throughout.

Some of this could be due to some conservatives getting the messsage that although Gingrich talks about he was a best bud and supporter of Ronald Reagan, some of Reagean’s former associates say it wasn’t that way. And the Drudge Report as you read this has links to articles like that on its front page.

Of course the big question in deciding how Republcans vote is: what is Rush saying? MORE OF THE POLL:

The latest results from Florida are a mirror image of the dynamic found a week ago in South Carolina. In the Palmetto State, the former House speaker was trailing by 14 points on Monday, but following a strong debate performance he had a two-point lead by Wednesday. That 16-point turnaround seemed stunning at the time. Now, in Florida, it’s Romney’s turn. He trailed by nine points in the Sunshine State on Sunday but enjoyed a 17-point comeback by Wednesday.

As GOP voters search for the candidate best equipped to defeat President Obama, perceptions of Romney’s electability have risen since earlier in the week. Four days ago, 42% of Florida primary voters said Gingrich would be the strongest candidate against Obama, while 39% felt that way about the former Massachusetts governor. Now 49% think Romney would be the strongest challenger versus 34% who believe that of Gingrich. Most still agree that Paul would be the weakest GOP nominee.

This means at tonight’s debate a)Gingrich will try to take out Romney once and for all (take money now on how long it’ll be before Gingrich attacks the media to push Republican’s never-fail hotbutton) and b)Romney has to decimate Gingrich or at least show voters he’d be a better debate foe for Barack Obama than the former Speaker.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) think Romney is at least somewhat likely to beat Obama, with 43% who feel it’s Very Likely. Sixty-six percent (66%) believe Gingrich is likely to beat the incumbent, including 35% who say it’s Very Likely. Just 39% and 18% of Florida Republicans respectively say Santorum or Paul are likely to win the White House this November.

Most (55%) in Florida still expect Romney to eventually win the GOP presidential nomination, but 31% think Gingrich will be the nominee. That represents a slight shift in Romney’s favor from four days ago.

But the race is FLUID…which again shows how important the debate could be:

Highlighting the fluid nature of the race in Florida is the finding that 24% of likely primary voters say they still could change their minds before the final vote on Tuesday. That’s down from 32% on Sunday. Eight percent (8%) still haven’t made their initial choice. The 69% who are certain how they will vote includes 78% of Gingrich supporters, 74% of Romney voters, 67% of Paul’s backers and 61% of Santorum’s.