Fred Thompson’s Rivals Prepare To Pounce

Adivsory to former Senator and TV actor Fred Thompson: get out your wallet NOW.

Your “free ride” is going to be over.

According to a report in The Politico, the GOP’s Night Of Long Political Knives is about to soon begin on the yes-he’s-running but no-he-hasn’t-announced yet and he-doesn’t-have-to-debate candidacy/non candidacy of Fred Thompson.

Thompson has had conservatives drooling because they consider him a filet mignon on a platter next to the frozen turkey dinner candidacies of other Republicans seeking the GOP conservative vote. The conventional wisdom is that he’s a “clean,” untarnished candidate, charismatic and “like Ronald Reagan.”

That is soon to change, The Politico reports:

Opponents and their researchers have begun working — mostly behind the scenes — to highlight perceived soft spots in his conservative bona fides.

And Thompson will have to neutralize questions on the campaign trail and in the media about his centrist votes in the Senate, his stances on litmus test conservative issues including abortion and — perhaps most significantly — his work as a lawyer and lobbyist.

Thompson’s biggest challenge will likely be cementing his image as a conservative country lawyer fixin’ to shake up Washington — before his opponents brand him as an influence peddler and trial lawyer.

The piece goes into detail about the perceived soft spots Thompson’s foes (who have been in the trenches slugging it out as opposed to posting videos of peppery answers to filmmaker Michael Moore) and working on.

The Thompson candidacy remains somewhat problematic. He’s going to face some hurdles, even with his face recognition (a lot of Americans will know his face from TV and movies but Fred Thompson is not the name of an actor usually discussed around the water cooler or even on college campuses) and his excellent communication skills.

Here are a few of the factors that don’t quite fit into the media hype and best-case scenario being promoted by his supporters:

(1) Reagan was constantly tested in the political waters. Thompson has not. He was a Senator and a lawyer. But Reagan battled a zillion local and state battles in his rise to and stint as California governor. He did not start out as the front runner in the primaries. He was in debates where he not only “paid his dues” but expanded the support he had built up over the years as governor, on the campaign rubber chicken circuit, and via doing newspaper and radio columns.

(2) Thompson’s appeal right now is to Republicans. He will have to establish an identity rather fast if he wants to pick up independent voters. The GOP has already seen that it is risky to simply write off independents (and disgruntled Democrats) and stick to the Karl Rove approach of government by the base, for the base and of the base. So like John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, he’ll have to walk a bit of a political rightrope.

(3) Thompson is not going to get softball interviews from the mainstream media. He will NEED the mainstream media — and will have to emerge from them with his image intact. He can’t win an election by only going on Rush Limbaugh, or having a fawning Sean Hannity toss softball questions and even (as Robert Novak noted) rescue him from an answer that could have been problematic. If he doesn’t jump into the mainstream media Q&A machine, his appeal will remain limited to Republicans — and only Republican conservatives.

(4) Thompson is right now enjoying only the FIRST STAGE in the election-cycle media narrative . That is (a) the rise of the candidate (b) the candidate catches on (c) the candidate is wowing them. He’ll find the other parts of this cycle not as much fun: (d) the candidate stumbles (e) the candidate loses support (f) the fizzling out of the candidate. But if he is persistent like Bill Clinton or Al Gore he’ll survive to see this one to (g) the rise and comeback of the once seemingly washed-out candidate.

Thompson is not Ronald Reagan. There was only one Reagan who managed to corral Democrats due to his personality, his long presence on the national stage as a high-profile “brand name,” his role as a political militant, and his super-high-profile post as California’s governor.

Thompson IS a Republican seemingly not cut from the Newt Gingrich/Tom DeLay/Karl Rove slash-and-decapitate school of politics. His biggest strength (for independents) is the one that some conservatives who don’t trust him feel is a weakness: he is a protege of former Tennessee Senator Howard Baker. Baker goes back to the days when Republicans would talk to Democrats and have differences with them — but not hate them or insist they all had horns & pitchforks, were dishonest or hypocrites.

FOOTNOTE: No candidate in recent memory has had a free ride that lasted forever. Thompson will have to jump into the fray, survive the onslaught from his political foes, convincingly deal with questions from the mainstream media, solidify his party’s conservative support — and also make sure he doesn’t totally chase away independent voters who do not want to see Bush III under the name of another Republican and won’t want to see all Democrats painted as being enablers of or the favorite candidates of terrorists.

That would be a tough order, even for a Reagan.

P.S. Fred: Remember that as you go through the expected challenge from your Republican competitors, the Democrats will be listening — and taking notes…