Putin’s trap for Bush on the missile shield
Russia’s Vladimir Putin has laid a very skilful trap for President George Bush’s plans to place the beginnings of an anti-missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic to protect Western Europe against a possible attack by Iran or North Korea.
By suggesting that the shield should be located on a Russian military base in Azerbaijan, Putin has challenged Bush to protect all countries west of Iran and not just its Western allies. Further, he is trying to trick Bush into putting the shield under joint US, Russian and, to a lesser extent, Azerbaijan control by placing it outside NATO’s territory.
Thus, Moscow would have a say in all decisions, including those to launch anti-missile missiles, and would tie the hands of both the White House and Congress in a future conflict with Iran if it is executed against Russia’s will.
In effect, Russia or anyone else could destroy the shield installations without automatically triggering NATO’s collective defence clauses. Those are activated under treaty obligation if a non-NATO member State attacks anything on the territory of a NATO member State. Collective defence means that an attack on one member State is considered to be an attack on all.
Any enemy State could justify destroying or neutralizing the shield installations on a base in Azerbaijan without triggering the collective defence clauses unless the territory is formally ceded under contract to the US or NATO. The legal situation would still be unprecedented and murky.
Russia could intervene to shut down the base if the US attacks Iran bypassing the UN Security Council, as it did Iraq, or in defiance of a Russian veto in the Security Council. Russia might do so if it opposes military intervention in Iran, as it does currently, and wishes to win brownie points with Teheran for economic or other reasons.
It might even turn a blind eye if Teheran retaliates to a Western coalition attack with a missile launch on a NATO member within range of its weapons, as Iran would most likely do in an all out conflict. Much would depend on the military balances and strategic partnerships affecting West and Central Asia in coming years.
Such scenarious sound like fiction right now but it is worth remembering that security strategies are built to handle long term future uncertainties, not simply to riposte to present tensions. Russia has objected to bases in Poland and the Czech Republic because it sees any new US military installations using missiles, whether in defence or offence, as an alternation of the carefully negotiated strategic balance of forces between Moscow and Washington.
Once those bases are built, it cannot neutralize them in the event that they are used to coerce Moscow not to cosy up to Iran or other West and Central Asian countries because they will be on NATO territory. No one can foretell at this time how future strategic partnerships or alliances will shape in coming years if the US continues its determination, as stated several times, to be the world’s supreme military power.
Since US military power seems invincible, it is normal that other countries study how to prevent its use to coerce them to compromise on whatever they might consider to be in their national interest. Security negotiations involving conventional and nuclear weapons, which are often misleadingly called disarmament negotiations for public image purposes, are conducted to safeguard the security interests of governments for decades to come.
Putin is trying to put Bush in a corner. At the recent G-8 Summit, Bush invited Putin to share in developing the missile shield. By suggesting Azerbaijan as the location, which borders on Iran, Putin is ensuring that the invitation is not just rhetoric or insincere bluff.
If Washington decides to go so far forward in cooperating with Moscow, the world will move towards a new strategic balance in which the US and Russia would work together outside the UN Security Council to strengthen global security and neutralize Iran’s ambitions.
A compromise might include shields in Azerbaijan, Poland and the Czech Republic, thus making clear that they are not a defensive measure to protect only NATO members. In this way, the strategic balance inside Europe would not be disturbed since Moscow would a partner and Iran would be thoroughly isolated.
However, we can expect a revival of tensions between Washington and Moscow if Bush insists on sticking just to Poland and the Czech Republic. China would also have to consulted if Bush decides to cooperate with Putin, since Azerbaijan is in China’s backyard just as Latin America is in the US backyard.
24 Responses to “Putin’s trap for Bush on the missile shield”
The counter-proposal by Putin is not the least bit clever (it’s transparent!) and Putin and Russia continue to be paranoid. They should spend more time worrying about how they are regressing in and ruining their own country rather than behaving as if a defensive system against Iran is actually provocative and even offensive.
Isn’t any discussion of anit-missile systems pointless since the Democratic controlled congress will never fund it and the next (Democratic) president will kill it along with the coming down sizing of the military.
No, because it’s an opportunity for anti-Western and anti-US elements in the US and the rest of the West to expose themselves, as well as obviously attack Bush again.
Now that Fidel is feeling better maybe for the sake of world peace, and wanting to do his part in fighting the GWOT, Putin should install an anti-missile shield in Cuba.
I’m certain that Americans won’t mind. Especially after Putin assures us that the Russians are our friends.
Besides, it’s just for defensive purposes, so how could anyone get worked up about… You never really know when the East Africans might decide to attack Russia from behind.
I’m sure that some ‘righties’, the ones who don’t REALLY want to share the responsibilities (and the glory) of fighting the GWOT, will see this as a move by Russia to install weapons on our boarders but Good ‘ol George Bush will set them straight… just like he did with his pal, Mr. Putin.
Nice post SteveK, but don’t expect sd or DLS to realize how ridiculous they are.
They’re still wondering why anyone questions the good intentions of the U.S. government.
This isn’t so much a trap as Putin calling Bush’s bluff. George Bush insists that the Cold war is over and Russia is good friends with the West.
Putin knows better.
Most of the rest of the world does, too.
The relationship could change in a moment. The current hostility due to Russias backsliding on democratic reforms, and assassinations of Kremlin critics like the recent poisoning in London indicate this could happen sooner rather than later.
Tehran has no nuclear weapons and no missiles to carry them. Moscow does. Odds are, if this defense were ever used, it would be to counter Russia, not Iran.
Chris,
Do you really think that any such anit-missile system (that has not even been designed or tested yet) will ever be built in the future. By the time construction starts, Bush and Putin will both be long gone.
sd,
Sorry SD, I should have left you out of my last post. I hope you accept my apology.
SteveK
I would welcome Putin to sink Billion into a 1000 Missile defence shields in Cuba.
Our Missiles fly over the poles. I should think that those missiles would have a hard time catching up to missiles launched from Wyoming heading over the North Pole.
This is not about missiles. Putin announced in Indonesia in 2003 that Russia was a Muslim country and that it planned on having a big say in Muslim Affairs in the world to come.
This is the sole reason that Putin is opposing any shield that is intended in any way, shape or form to counter Iran….another Muslim Country.
Putin could turn west to the EU and been a huge partner in the world stage. Or he could turn east and become another drain on the worlds resources and once again plunge this world into political, economic and social woes.
He chose to turn his attentions east. Russia once again is isolating herself from the west and taking on a antagonistic approach to the west. At least this time there is reason. Russia is being assimilated by Muslims and it wont be long before she either errupts in civil war or becomes Muslim dominated.
And the French claimed “we’re all American’s now” after 9/11. It doesn’t make it true, though.
Somebody,
You’re starting to sound like General Buck Turgidson in “Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb” and that’s a little scary… in a Peter Sellers / Armageddonish sort of way.
sd – Bill Clinton funded the system while in office.
No matter what the topic, some of you just post the same (cut and paste?) snide remarks at your political enemies. I’m sure I would read them again even if the topic were tomato cultivation. How you deep from boring yorselves to death is beyond me.
[...] Putin, Crazy Like A Fox Published June 9th, 2007 World Politics , American Politics , Bush The moderate voice reports on the clever trap Putin has laid for Bush. It looks like we get to spend the summer watching Bush squirm on Putin’s hook. The Moderate Voice states, Russia’s Vladimir Putin has laid a very skilful trap for President George Bush’s plans to place … [...]
And then there are those of us who oppose the program because the reality is that it is highly questionable whether this system is even close to being ready to be deployed. How about if we spend more money on R&D before actually producing a system that failed the overwhelming majority of its tests and has never passed one that tried to simulate real world conditions.
There were 8,057 bank robberies in Los Angeles during the last 10 years;
Most of those remain unsolved. It is this concept that keeps people robbing banks. The fact that they MIGHT just get away with it. The fact that you get CAUGHT is what keeps most honest people honest.
A country such as Iran who has 3 missiles with nukes capable of hitting the USA might think long and hard if she fires her 3 valuable missiles with the chance all 3 could be shot down. Or mabey just two would be shot down and one made it. Or mabey they might all 3 get thru.
The fact is there is no guarantee that any of them will make it across the sea and strike the USA if there is a missile defense plan in effect.
This alone makes the value of such a system priceless. Putin knows full well that with his 2000 missiles that a system with 10 rockets is not threat to his forces. He is playing politics.
A Squirming Bush? Hardly. EU and the West are holding all the cards. The problem is not the shield anyway. The problem is getting Russia to sign off on Kosovo so she can become free and the EU has no longer the need to keep troops in that country.
Also I would encourage you all to do some research on Russia and her Immigration, assimilation problem. If Armageddon is to come. I’m betting Russia will be leading the charge.
“Putin should install an anti-missile shield in Cuba.”
Oh, that may make “sense” to some, especially since missiles aimed at Russia would go nowhere near Cuba. *scowl*
“Putin could turn west to the EU and been a huge partner in the world stage. Or he could turn east”
In fact, he’s resurrecting a pale echo of the Cold War, becoming not so much pro-East but anti-West.
“it is highly questionable whether this system is even close to being ready to be deployed”
Remember that Bush wanted us to go back to the Moon not so long ago. Do you believe we’ll do it?
Missile defense makes sense but one question that more people need to be asking is why more effort and expense is not forthcoming from Europe, whom the system is intended to protect. That the US may participate makes perfect sense given what is learned from it can be applied here at home, but this should be primarily European, at least in theory.
1. People have been predicting the death of “missile defense” since the evening Reagan proposed it. As technology continues to improve our capabilities does anyone really believe it is gonna just go away?
2. There is no “trap” here. Putin was simply faced with realities that were not gonna mesh with his rhetoric anymore. His proposal makes sure Russia has a seat at the table which is what Putin wanted. Bush was making it clear that the U.S. was gonna go forward with or without Russian involvement. Putin could have either maintained his fiction of “encirclement” OR he could conceed that that was never really the issue and make a proposal to join the conversation. He chose the latter.
Unfortunately many paranoids believe the former.
For clarity… Which ‘paranoids’ are you talking about… The ones that say, “the system has to be built or we’re doomed”; or, the ones that say, “Build the system and we’re doomed”?
The scenarios of Russia stopping operation or destroying a missile defense site in Azerbaijan rely on an assumption that Russia would want a missile launched from Iran to impact on a site in Europe and would want to be seen doing so.
I can think of no conditions under which this assumption would prove valid.
> Putin could have either
> maintained his fiction
> of “encirclement [...]
> Unfortunately many
> paranoids believe the
> former.
They have allies in the West who simply are against missile defense — in the hands of the USA or the West. This is no different than the “nuclear freeze” movement, which was simply anti-US-and-Western political activism of a related kind involving nuclear weapons.
The proposed system is defensive; Russia has no legitimate gripe, and Western critics are simply being anti-Western as they have been before. The location of the system is obviously logical; there is no legitimate gripe about that, either; the only related matter would be how one day Europe would guard against missiles launched from North Africa. The problems are in the realm of who is doing the work and spending the money (USA vs. Europe) and what is realistically feasible versus what is just dreams at this stage. (Note that only fools demand such a system not be attempted if it cannot provide a 100% guarantee of stopping an attack, and only suspicious people say that a defensive system is “obviously” a way to improve first strike capability of the West.)
[...] The moderate voice reports on the clever trap Putin has laid for Bush. It looks like we get to spend the summer watching Bush squirm on Putin’s hook. The Moderate Voice states, Russia’s Vladimir Putin has laid a very skilful trap for President George Bush’s plans to place … [...]