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Poll: Thompson Surges, Clinton Stalls And Bush Approval Ratings Go South

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A poll by the Pew Research Center indicates the Democratic and Republican races for the 2008 Presidential nominations of both parties are more fluid than ever — and that President George Bush’s poll numbers continue their seemingly-inexorable move towards the political South Pole.

Key findings:

  • Actor and former Senator Fred Thompson is most definitely being perceived as a viable option for many GOPers. Question: by not being in the debates is he hurting himself? The argument can be made both ways. (Thompson appeared on Fox News the night of the debates, interviewed by Sean Hannity who can’t be confused with a hard-nosed questioner of Republicans).
  • Hillary Clinton’s support is showing erosion. This undermines the “inevitabilty argument,” which the first President Bush termed “Big ‘Mo.” On the other hand, this doesn’t make a Clinton candidacy less likely or in trouble this early in the game.
  • Bush’s approval rating is now at 29 percent — the lowest of his presidency. Low poll numbers are dangerous for Bush for several reasons: they undermine clout, they make it more likely that GOPers will consider him political poison if they want careers in Congress beyond January 2009, and they further undercut perceptions of his clout and support when viewed by foreign governments. If Bush is on a roll, he seems to be on a stale one.

    • Here are some poll details:

    Former Sen. Fred Thompson has broad potential appeal among Republican voters even before his expected entrance into the presidential race. Thompson is not nearly as well known as former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani or the other leading GOP candidates. But 37% of the Republican and Republican-leaning voters who have heard of Thompson say there is a “good chance” they will support him. This is equal to the level of support Giuliani receives from GOP voters who have heard of him, and reflects far more enthusiasm than any of the other Republican candidates garner.

    Democratic voters continue to express somewhat more enthusiasm for their party’s top-tier candidates than do Republicans, and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continue to draw the greatest potential support. The enthusiasm advantage Clinton enjoyed in February has all but disappeared, as the percentage of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters saying there is a good chance they would support her has dipped from 52% to 44%.

    The poll further suggests Obama’s poll numbers are stagnant, while more Democrats would vote for Al Gore than before if they had a chance (but Gore insists he is not running..yet..).
    The results on Bush should be particularly worrisome to the White House and to GOP party bigwigs:

    The survey finds that President Bush’s job approval rating has declined significantly since April. Bush’s approval rating stands at 29% – the lowest of his presidency – down from 35% two months ago. Bush has lost substantial support from his Republican base. Only about two-thirds of Republicans (65%) approve of Bush’s job performance, which also is the lowest mark of his presidency. As recently as April, 77% of Republicans approved of the way Bush was handling his job as president.

    In other words: all the conventional wisdom and predictions about what is likely to happen in 2008 should be taken not just with a grain of salt but with a huge bowl of water from the Dead Sea.

    The race, in fact, is highly-fluid as Bush is icing up as he continues heading in a direction where very soon he’ll be greeted by Polar Bears (who probably also won’t want to be photographed with him).