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Republicans and Democrats Decline While Independents Grow
It may be too early to say WE are the REAL “moral majority” but we’re increasing in numbers, according to the latest Rasmussen poll:
For the fourth straight month, the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans has decreased. For the third straight month, the number of people identifying themselves as Democrats has also decreased.
A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of 15,000 adults in May found that just 30.8% now say they’re Republicans. That’s down slightly from last month and down more than six percentage points from the GOP peak of 37.3% during Election 2004. The number of Republicans has been falling fairly steadily since the middle of 2005.
However, the survey also found that the number of people identifying themselves as Democrats has fallen to its lowest level in seventeen months (since January 2006). Democrats gained about two percentage points of support during 2006 and peaked at 38.0% in December of last year. Since actually taking control of Congress, Democrats have given back most of those gains. Today, 36.3% say they belong to Nancy Pelosi’s party.
As a result, the number not affiliated with either major party has jumped to another all-time high—32.9%. That’s up nearly nine percentage points since Election 2004 and means that there are now more politically unaffiliated adults than Republicans….
If the Democrats are facing a leaky ship, the Republicans seem to be facing an abandon ship.
This suggests:
Each party now faces a difficult political ballet. The base of each party is not skewed towards the political center (GOP base to the right; Demmie base to the left). Clearly, each party needs independent voters to win. But trying to appeal to independent parties too much risks alienating the all-important base.
One likely impact: highly charismatic or telegenic candidates could be more critical than necessary in 2008 to overcome ideological constraints.
25 Responses to “Republicans and Democrats Decline While Independents Grow”
more critical than necessary
do you mean “not merely important, but critical” or some such?
I see a difference in the loss of support in both parties. The Republicans are hemorrhaging moderate support while their base seems to remain steadfast. The Democrats, especially after caving to Bush on the funding, are in danger of losing a good chunk of the left. The 2008 election could turn out to be the greatest breakdown in the two party system since the 1850′s.
This news has really brightened my day. I hope this is a sign that people, even through the filter of mass media, are starting to catch on to the BS that politicians force us to swallow on a daily basis. Maybe someday in the future they’ll actually start focusing on solutions to problems instead of just steering our perceptions of them while they line their pockets with lobbyist dough.
“This news has really brightened my day.”
Mine, too, Sam.
May both ships break apart on some rocks.
Your are forgetting the loyality of blacks and hispanics to the Democratic party. When you claim that people are upset with both parties, you are really claiming that WHITE voters are upset with both parties. If you look at voting patterns, Blacks, Hispanics, Jews, are overjoyed with the Democratic Party and will not leave for any independent candidates.
I think what middle class whites are dissatisfied with is the choice between the two parties. Republicans may be mad at the establishment Republicans because of the immigration bill because there is no place in the Democratic party for them.
People are forced to vote for the lesser of two evils or stay home.
I’d like to be as hopeful as Joe here, but as long as the Republican and Democratic parties enjoy their quasi-governmental status (which both parties have carefully ingrained into the law of the land), I’m not sure much can change. Oh, there might be some sort of party realignment in the future, but it will merely be a variation on an old and tired tune.
> Blacks,
90+ per cent Democratic — the closest thing in this country to being robotic
> Hispanics,
66% if not more Democratic (just the legal voters, mind you)
> Jews,
Probably 75% or more Democratic
> are overjoyed with the
> Democratic Party
I don’t believe so, but the preference for that party is obvious.
I think it’s a legacy of past discrimination in this country and the Dems’ willingness to exploit the situation (the way talk radio exploited a situation with overwhelmingly liberal media that neglected and often offended non-liberal Americans). And with radicalization of liberalism since the 1960s and the PC chic attitude among youth, including white youth, you see disdain to contempt to abhorrence (as well as psychosis on this site from time to time) by the far Left and for the rest, it’s “Friends Don’t Let Friends Vote Republican.” (a real bumper sticker I’ve seen in DC)
> People are forced to vote for
> the lesser of two evils or stay home.
True. The real thing this thread brings to mind is how much richer we’d be if we had a multi-party system with proportional representation.
“Friends Don’t Let Friends Vote Republican.†(a real bumper sticker I’ve seen in DC)
DLS- Do you know where I can get one of those? I’m in the DC area!
> quasi-governmental status
That’s the problem. What’s sad is so many in academia behave as if this is somehow proper or even sacred, and so I’ve seen reforms that are nothing of the kind and actually enshrine (my preferred term) the two-party system. I think particularly of one set of reforms (I forget the author’s name at this moment) that wanted the parties to select the people going to Congress, and for people to vote for one or the other party, and the losing party would become an official Opposition (the guy even capitalized the word) with control of the House (and presumably would finally make legitimate the “opposing party’s” speeches we face after Bush makes an address). I’ve seen other reformers who typically want a “team ticket” (you just vote for a party) and would ban ticket splitting. (If we want parties, there should be several of them.) Part of the problem we see currently is that the party operatives have too much power in this country (along with Congressional staff members and lobbyists, what I call the Unholy Triumvirate).
DLS,
Jews vote around 90% for Democrats. The only way that the number is around 70% for Hispanics is that the elite Cubans in Flordia are counted the same as mexican-Americans. MExican-American vote more like 80% for Democrats.
The problem with any push for a multi-party system is that none of the ethnic groups, gays, government workers, or the labor unions are going to leave the Democratic Party.
The future of the U.S. is more likely to see the Republican party fade away and the Democrats become the one, dominate party. That could have amoderating effect on the Democrats if Republicans cross over to vote in the Democratic primary, or if the Democrats move to close their primaries, it will lead to a radical left government with a huge amount of corruption.
Howdy, K,
> Do you know where I can
> get one of those?
I’ll ask my radical friend, as it was on one of her friends’ cars. (I took her to meet her friends downtown a few years ago.)
BUT — as an additional favor:
I can recommend beforehand that you visit Union Station and look for a politicial knicknack store in the main area — NOT the multi-floor mall by where the trains are, but in the front part of Union Station. Go through the main doors, through the first lobby, go to the main area (multi story open area), turn LEFT (no pun intended). The store will be on your left side about half-way down if it is still where it used to be when I lived in Rockville and went to DC frequently. I have a suspicion you might find that and much more anti-GOP stuff in that store. (Dem-bashing stuff, too)
E-mail has been sent; will check tomorrow when in STL on the road, as well as next week, report whatever I hear back.
Um I think I know which store you mean, DLS. They have a countdown to Jan 2009, and you can buy a burning Bush to throw on the fireplace. But of course they have something similar with Hillary’s puss on it. We were down there about 2 months ago, but all I bought was a picture of the Capitol.
> Jews vote around 90% for Democrats.
All the Jewish Americans I have known certainly have been quite liberal (one friend I even bought a copy of Tikkun), and think of Republicans as some kind of reptilian scum, or at least certainly not respectable.
> The future of the U.S. is more
> likely to see the Republican party
> fade away and the Democrats
> become the one, dominate party.
I believe the Democrats will become stronger, simply because if nothing else the Republicans will become weaker. The GOP may not be sure of what it wants to be, it has an image problem that conservatism always will have, especially with youth, and then there’s the Religious Right and worse, the Left’s reaction to them.
> I think I know which store
> you mean
Yep — “first floor” — on the left as you go to the end of the hall, with an art store at the far right (no pun intended). I’d give the place a good search the next time you are there.
Superdestroyer,
Could you please offer some evidence of these strangely rounded out numbers for voting preference?
Ya know, 47.36% of all statistics on the internet are made up on the fly.
But you’re beating those odds considerably.
“Your are forgetting the loyality of blacks and hispanics to the Democratic party.”
Actually SuperD I asked my two black friends, the ones I keep around to ease my librul white guilt, and they are also independents. My mexican friend is probably out flip flopping a burrito for John Kerry but I’m pretty sure he is independent too. Good grief.
Davebo,
Look at http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html
89% black for Democrats, 87% Jewish, 70% for all Hispanic. Of course that took all of two minutes on the internet.
Sam,
It is hard to believe that many blacks are independents when most blacks have never voted for a Republican or any candidate other than a Democrat. That 90% for Democrats number has been steady since the 1960′s.
A lot of African Americans are much farther to the left than the Democratic Party, especially on economic issues. But they vote Democratic because it’s the lesser of two evils. Note also that blacks are 12% of the population but only 10% of voters in 2006 – a Democratic year. If black votes were 12% of the total, the Republican Party would be in much deeper trouble. Same goes for Latino voters.
Thanks DLS- I gotta get one of those for my Honda before ’08, LOL, to annoy my conservative white, Christian, suburban, Republican neighbors.
All right, K, good morning from STL, and here’s the response from DC.
“Good call; that would be my first suggestion also. Or maybe the Democratic National Committee headquarters?”
Have fun with that sticker and don’t forget to cruise through northern Virginia, where there are liberals (look for rainbow images on the vehicles) but yes, you have many suburbanites there (and many lousy drivers!).
DLS- Course if you continue South on 95 towards the Virginia /North Carolina border, they might find your Honda with you in it in some ditch, if you drive down there with that sticker on your bumper, lol.
If the GOP can ever manage to ditch the Dobsons, DeLays, Robertsons, Reeds, Lands and Falwells and put their cloth coats back on, I might look at their candidates again. But, I can’t deal with the convergence of church and state, and find those who legislate morality for OTHERS rather unbearable.
Have a great weekend!
kritter,
The Democratic Party seems to have an aversion to mixing politics and religion as long as it is white, protestants doing the mixing. As long as blacks, hispanics, or liberal catholic priest do the mixing, the seem quite content to let it be.
[...] Republicans and Democrats Decline While Independents GrowThe Moderate Voice – It may be too early to say WE are the REAL moral majority but we re increasing in numbers, according to the latest Rasmussen poll: For the fourth straight month, the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans has decreased. For [...]
SD- I’m not seeing religious dogma affecting any of the legislation that the Democrats have presented on the floor. They have worked to raise the minimum wage, lower the rate on student loans, put a timetable on the war. If their agenda starts looking like the GOP’s- anti stem cell, prolife, antigay, pro- intelligent design vs evolution, then I will not bother to vote at all.
But that’s an interesting comment, since the Democrats are usually accused of being Godless secular progressives!
[...] number of independents has jumped to an all time high, even exceeding the number of Republicans, The Moderate Voice was wondering if this was a sign of victory. Chris Bower played down the results, noting that [...]