Sabato’s Crystal Ball: OF ASHES AND SASHES
OF ASHES AND SASHES – Vacancy Signs Point to a Very “Special” Summer
Just as Ben Franklin assured us of two certainties in life, let the Crystal Ball assure you of two certainties in congressional special elections this year: deaths and taxpayer-funded University posts will be the cause (granted, you won’t hear us complaining too much about the latter). We’ll explain in a minute.At the moment, to be perfectly precise, the U.S. House stands at 231 Democrats and 201 Republicans. Of course, as every Politics 101 student can tell you, the House should consist of a total of 435 members (or 437, if the body decides to grant additional representation for Utah and Washington, DC). That can mean only one thing: less than five months into the term of the 110th Congress, three districts have sprouted vacancy signs thanks to unusual developments. And a fourth (maybe even a fifth) vacancy could be on the way.
For those of you like we at the Crystal Ball, who cannot wait the one year, five months, and four days–but hey, who’s counting?–until the next regular congressional elections, the special elections created by those vacancies tide us over. Often, these mid-session races are the hardest to predict, because turnout levels can vary wildly. In plenty of cases, exceedingly low voter participation and brief campaign timetables turn special elections into friends-and-neighbors affairs in which candidates really only compete for support in their home bases.
Occasionally, these races can present a mid-cycle opportunity for a one party to steal a seat from the other side. That’s not quite the case so far this year, but sometimes even intense intra-party battles within safe districts can still offer us some insight into the nation’s political climate–and we believe the summer storms now brewing in these tiny slices of the country are in fact worth watching. To date, this year’s lineup of safe-seat vacancies is remarkable for its bipartisan symmetry of unforeseen circumstances.
Within the past few months, one member from each party–Charlie Norwood (R) of Georgia and Juanita Millender-McDonald (D) of California–has died of cancer. While our condolences go out to the family, friends and constituents of both dedicated public servants, government must go on. It’s also possible that by summer’s end, one member from each party–Kenny Hulshof (R) of Missouri and Marty Meehan (D) of Massachusetts–will have accepted top-level administrative posts at large public universities in their home states. No doubt, these politicians have discovered what the Crystal Ball has known for years: the academy is just more fun.
The contests in Democratic-held districts each feature female favorites dueling for safe open seats, an especially welcome bonus for women’s groups such as EMILY’s List that celebrated Nancy Pelosi’s swearing-in as Speaker of the House earlier this year. Crossing the aisle, the races in Republican-held districts will most likely also lack the allure of potential hostile takeover, but make up for it in the entertainment value of the campaigns the candidates will wage.
So hold on tight as the Crystal Ball reads the vacancy signs across the land on this very “special” summer road trip…
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4 Responses to “Sabato’s Crystal Ball: OF ASHES AND SASHES”
For top people, academia pays better now than it used to. It’s not only coaches now who have huge pay packages.
I wish.
I think even good people tire of the incessant inertia and nastiness of Capitol Hill. I don’t remember his name but the millionaire businessman that won Foley’s seat hates his job, and wants out already.
“In 2004, five presidents earned more than $1 million. And in all, 50 earned over $500,000. … the median compensation for the post is $360,000 … There are those who argue, much as they do in the corporate world, that the compensation for college and university leaders needs to attract highly qualified candidates and needs to reflect the increasing demands of the job. Indeed, some say, running a school these days is very much like running a for-profit company.”
http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/11/pf/college/college_president_pay/index.htm
“Presidents at public institutions may earn less and be less satisfied with their pay than their private-college counterparts, but public chiefs are by no means the poor stepchildren of academic leadership. In fact, the number of public-college presidents who belong to the half-million-dollar club continues to grow.”
http://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/compensation/chronicle/chesurvey1105.pdf
“Pressures notwithstanding, critics of the trend say lofty compensation packages have spawned a new ultra class within academia that grows steadily disconnected from the masses and undermines public confidence. …
Some pay packages and spending practices of university presidents have become controversial in recent years. At American University, a private institution of 10,000 students in Washington, Benjamin Ladner, its president, recently resigned amid accusations that he spent large amounts of university money for his personal use. The board gave Mr. Ladner a $3.7 million severance package.”
http://www-tech.mit.edu/V125/N56/56nytsalaries.html
“That competition with both top public and private institutions prompted the Texas Board of Regents in July to offer Mr. Yudof a record-high compensation package. Mr. Yudof, who stepped down as president of the University of Minnesota system to take the Texas job, signed an agreement that provides for annual compensation of $623,139, including a car allowance. Only $70,231 of that total comes from public money. The contract also includes a one-time payment this year of $172,580 to compensate him for retirement benefits that he would have earned in 2001-2 while employed at Minnesota but lost by taking the Texas job.
Such compensation rivals that paid to the highest earners among leaders of private colleges. Search-firm consultants say several leaders of top private universities have compensation packages in the $800,000 range.”
http://chronicle.com/free/almanac/2002/presidents/0100601.htm
Then, of course, there are the extra-greedy ones.
“Dynes has come under scrutiny after The Chronicle revealed that millions of dollars in extra compensation and questionable perks such as extra vacation, bonuses and paid housing, had been handed to some top executives, sometimes without telling the public or regents. The Chronicle’s findings, reported in 2005 and 2006, were followed by three state and university audits that showed how UC administrators sometimes flouted, circumvented and violated university policies governing pay and perks.”
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/05/18/BAGEIPTFEF1.DTL