Quote of the Day: What Polls Say about Romney, Cain and Gingrich

Our political Quote of the Day comes from Time’s Joe Klein who looks at a recent CBS News poll that showed former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain still going strong, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney frozen at his usual polling take and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich rising:

There are three messages being delivered in this poll. The first is about Mitt Romney, who has performed as well in these debates as I’ve ever seen a candidate perform–and who clearly is the Republicans’ most plausible President–but he still can’t seem to impress the faithful. It’s entirely possible, even probable, that the 31% will drift his way as nut-cutting time approaches, but this has to be a matter of real concern in the Romney camp: what does he have to do to close the deal? Is it possible that he’s just too moderate for this extremist party?

That is a distinct possibility

. Let’s face it: the word “moderate” is a truly dirty word now to many in the Republican party (and on the Democratic left) — almost as bad as “compromise.” Our politics has become as some say “tribal,” or as I say like people rooting for a sports team ready to defend it no matter what and blast the opposing team no matter what. Moderation is a “sin” not forgiven by some in both parties these days.

You have to couple this with what I have experienced as I begin my nine month tour of the United States, which ends at the end of May: as I traveled the East Coast I ran into MANY — I repeat MANY — former and present Republicans who are disillusioned by their party and use the word “extremism.” They don’t like the Democrats, don’t like the way Democrats spend, and aren’t fans of Barack Obama and tired of his speeches and rhetoric. But they feel their party has if not left them is leaving them and they feel members of their own party are more extreme than Barack Obama.

So, yes, indeed: Romney may be too moderate for the present GOP and never be given a chance to a)get the nomination b)have a united party behind him if he gets it even though he is showing political skills and marketability that would have made him a shoo in for the nomination and a strong candidate in past years. Today’s GOP is most assuredly different — which some love and some loath. The problem for Republicans is getting more than existing choir members to join in their 2012 song.

The second message is inherent in the 18% Cain vote. Pizza man continues to lead the field despite his weasely and entirely unconvincing response to the sexual harassment charges (and, more important, the comprehensive lack of knowledge he’s shown in the debates). His strength relates directly to Romney’s weakness: Cain is the Limbaugh cult candidate, the first choice of Republican nihilists, the screw-the-media candidate. I can’t imagine that he’ll be the nominee, or get anything but weaker as the process moves on, but who knows?

Yes. Cain IS the Limbaugh cult candidate. And it’s hard to get many Republicans and conservatives to understand this fact:

Rush Limbaugh may get boffo ratings and be a hero to many conservative fans of his talk show and to conservative bloggers but he is absolute anathema to many other Americans — and that includes many independents, women, moderate Republicans, Democrats who are not happy with their party’s left wing and who don’t idolize Dennis Kucinich or run to the radio or TV if another leftist talk show host devotes 30 minutes to interviewing Bernie Sanders. These are voters who are not happy with or disappointed by Barack Obama and whose minds are open to other alternatives. And some of these will not wish to vote for a candidate that Limbaugh thinks is just what the country needs. Since Barack Obama’s election the talk radio political culture has increasingly dominated the Republican party and America’s political system. It has its many devotees.

But talk show hosts must saw off part of an audience and deliver them to advertisers. That is their job. Politicians traditionally tried to aggregate interests and build coalitions by reaching out. There is an inherent conflict.

The third message: Gingrich may be this year’s McCain. His campaign disintegrated last Spring, as McCain’s did four years ago. But he’s a smart guy who understands the trajectory, and incredible length, of presidential races–and, through strong debate performances, has slowly built himself a following. My assumption, not unusual among those who’ve known Newt for the past few decades, is that at some point he will blow himself up. He tends to do that. He’s an angry guy, and an imperious one–that doesn’t work too well in presidential politics. Then again, the Republicans are a pretty angry party right now. Gingrich hasn’t faced the scrutiny yet that Romney, Perry and Cain have had to endure–if he continues to rise, that’s surely coming

.

I suspect Romney and Gingrich’s other competitors haven’t unloaded on Gingrich yet because he hasn’t been considered a real threat. The media has already had its moment with Gingrich, and he has survived it. So the question becomes whether op research on Gingrich will stop his steady march to becoming the Anti-Romney. And whether conservatives’ distrust and antipathy to Romney is enough to deny the former Massachusetts Governor the nomination, even if polls show he is the best chance to beat Barack Obama.

The question then gets down to an assertion Joe Scarborough has been making on his show.

According to the host of one of the most thoughtful political shows on television, some conservatives have been privately telling him that some of them would rather lose to Barack Obama than have Romney in there for four or 8 years behaving like another George Bush.

Some of the same people who steadfastly defended George Bush for years, demonized Democrats and others who criticized him are now blasting Bush as the kind of Republican they don’t want in the White House and they fear Romney could be a re-run of Bush II.

To them, Romney smells too strongly of Bush and Moderate.